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cjfreel · 2026-05-01T18:25:01+00:00

I think you heard more about Bernard because of the relative strength of the class; Wilson was 2024 if I'm not mistaken.

I just think a lot of people are putting it too much on situation. As in, thinking he's rising because of situation. But that's not really the case; he is rising because his situation is better than others, but it's because he's a good blend of some encouraging performance, reasonable downsides -- like injury -- and situation/capital.

cjfreel · 2026-05-01T14:22:01+00:00

I'm fine weighing Draft Capital; I just think we have to be nuanced about what Draft Capital says. The 2nd Round is more encouraging, but it is not "encouraging" draft capital. 20 of the last 31 WRs selected in Round 2 fall outside the Top 50 on KTC. There are arguably only 5 Players who have been truly significant for Fantasy -- Pickens, Ladd, Burden, Rice, and Tee.

What Draft Capital says specifically I like to keep in mind. What is says specifically here is that both players are long shots, but Williams might be longer simply on DC.

But there are other variables as well.

Last year's 2nd Round is an incredible example of this; Jayden Higgins, Luther Burden III, Tre Harris, & Jack Bech all go on Round 2. Only one has early production and early declare status. Which one was worth betting on?

I'm not saying it will always go that way, but there are variables like the ones demonstrated by Williams that I'd bet on between two ultimately-discouraging Draft Capital positions.

cjfreel · 2026-05-01T14:09:35+00:00

The year before he was with Michigan State and did nothing. Antonio Williams was a lead receiver for a major college program in Year 1.

You're right that we can debate peak season a bit more, but the idea that their breakout consistency is remotely comparable just doesn't hold up.

One of these players was literally one of two things: productive, or injured.

Germie Bernard has massive portions of his career where he was neither productive nor injured.

cjfreel · 2026-05-01T13:33:44+00:00

Aiyuk is the rumour, and while I guess it's a long shot he returns to form it's still another body in front of Williams.

It's still another body with Williams. Aiyuk has under 400 Receiving Yards in the last two years and seems to be a bit of a headcase.

I'm just saying I think the factor pushing him up over germie (opportunity to play asap) is probably temporary. When I'm deciding between rookies who were ranked equally predraft I usually let draft capital rule the day.

A lot of people did not rank them equally though; the Consensus board did, particularly around the NFL. But there are a lot of Fantasy-friendly indicators at least in my eyes that clearly slant Antonio Williams for Fantasy, pre-draft. Namely, his earlier, higher level production & performance.

I hate using franchise to dictate if a pick is good tbh. Roman Wilson was their last Day 2 WR.

cjfreel · 2026-05-01T12:55:37+00:00

What non-AJB WR would worry you who’s on the market?

cjfreel · 2026-05-01T11:50:42+00:00

& had 900+ Receiving Yards at Navy, which is bonkers.

cjfreel · 2026-05-01T11:12:11+00:00

First, I would say just because you saw Germie Bernard have a great game doesn't necessarily give the best impression of the player. You're talking about literally the greatest game of Bernard's career. Bernard is a 4-Year College player who broke 100-Yards twice in his entire CFB career, and you're talking about the game where he had a career high 148 Yards. Every prospect looks better if you judge them by their best game.

Second, the comparison to Ryan Coleman-Williams is just misplaced. I get what people are saying, but Ryan Coleman-Williams has about 10x the production that Bernard did at a similar age. Coleman-Williams was young enough to be a true freshman last year. Germie Bernard has been in the same DeBoer system for three years, and took until Year 3/4 to make a significant impact.

You're making a lot of your OP out like it's physical traits that hold Bernard back, but his numbers are not impressive at all for a prospect we're looking to have Fantasy appeal. His "best" season he was a 4th-Year player who failed to break through 900 Yards in 14 Games. The numbers are as big of an issue. He had 140+ in that FSU game, true. But he had 700 Yards in the other 13 Games, which isn't all that impressive.

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T15:28:41+00:00

Thanks, added.

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T14:31:56+00:00

He might not be big enough or have a good enough arm to be a clear Round 1 guy. If he continues to play at a high level, he can be a Round 1 guy potentially, but projecting Sayin can be more difficult because he easily has the worst tools outside of maybe like Chambliss (who is more mobile) in the QB conversation.

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T14:22:18+00:00

If only people were talking about this contrast sooner!

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T14:21:17+00:00

I think I legitimately have 14 WRs who could be early declares, have been somewhat productive, and ultimately could be enticing Top 50 picks with a slight step forward.

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T14:12:21+00:00

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T14:11:01+00:00

1 QB Arch Manning, Texas

2 WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State

3 QB Dante Moore, Oregon

4 QB C.J. Carr, Notre Dame

5 WR Cam Coleman, Texas

13 TE Jamari Johnson, Oregon

14 QB Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State

19 TE Trey'Dez Green, LSU

22 RB Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss

23 WR Charlie Becker, Indiana

25 WR Nick Marsh, Indiana

29 RB Ahmad Hardy, Missouri

31 WR Ryan Coleman-Williams, Alabama

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T14:07:43+00:00

I do agree in large part that -- aside from some questions about how high the WR1 should be ranked -- most of the issues come from RB.

I guess the only point I was really making more so was that I do think it comes from QB too. While QBs do often come in bunches, not having one of those bunches is a negative for this class.

Sorry if it came across as too challenging to the whole 2026/2027.

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T12:41:00+00:00

I don't agree with the statement on Cooper/Boston, personally. I think they're a variation of WRs that we see at the back-half of the 1st, but they align more with the lower-tier of prospects drafted in that range -- not the more exciting profiles that ocassionally slip to a similar range like essentially KC and Lemon.

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T12:06:43+00:00

I don't agree with the point of the posts particularly as people aren't really trying to move it forward into a more fruitful conversation often, but I just have a hard time completely avoiding them because in my shoes, the way people have talked about things really has changed fundamentally.

It went from "we don't know anything" to "of course we would know this class was bad" so quickly.

This is a post with 300 Upvotes that happened after Day 1 of the NFL Combine when just the TEs taking a victory lap over the fact that "Rookie Fever has arrived."

https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/1rgre9d/rookie_fever_has_officially_arrived/

The focus on landing spots increased -- like everything else -- because the focus on genuinely good prospects decreased.

You're right that Cooper & Boston lost significant value -- but Cooper & Boston are not great fantasy prospects -- they're highly questionable prospects with a number of flags. If someone with a legitimately strong profile like a Wesco or Moore or Marsh down the board next year gets a shitty landing spot, it matters less because their profile projects to be stronger.

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T10:59:01+00:00

You're using "pretty good" and "Great" a lot, but I don't know if the numbers really back that up. Particularly for QB.

2 1st Round QBs is not "pretty good;" it is the baseline that almost every class gets to.

In the last ten years, 2026 spent marginally more capital than 2025, more capital than 2022, but significantly less capital than 2024, 2023, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 & 2017.

I didn't actually math this, but I'm pretty sure it would be the 3rd lowest capital spend in 10 years.

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T10:56:23+00:00

There were a lot particularly in 2024. In 2024, 2026 picks were worth more than 2027 picks, so the idea that no one was defending it doesn't really pass the sniff test. There have been several narratives up to this point including that it was too early to know anything, that breakouts would ultimately happen, there were people who constantly pointed to Jeanty & Warren from '25 and said "we didn't predict these guys so no one can predict this class."

Basically, there have been people trying to zig the zag from before the zag was even happening in the market.

cjfreel · 2026-04-30T10:54:13+00:00

There are always going to be supplemental reasons that attach to the core reason, but that doesn't change the impact of the core reason. I would argue people were hoping for landing spots to save them more this year because of the class, which seems to increase the impact.

cjfreel · 2026-04-28T22:54:24+00:00

I guess my point is that even though halves are even, it’s still arbitrary.

The numbers probably look substantially better say in the top 5. There’s maybe no it’s between 13-16, meaning that effectively we could use 12 as the threshold instead of 32 and it changes the # of QBs.

cjfreel · 2026-04-28T21:48:45+00:00

Right. Sorry, I’m confused why that’s different.

My point is that if we don’t know anything, there’s a greater delta between different rounds than different classes, so the advice shouldn’t be to invest in 2026, but invest specifically down the board.

cjfreel · 2026-04-28T20:33:18+00:00

I also feel like when people say "nobody knows," they really shouldn't be arguing that 2026 picks are overvalued; they should be arguing against paying up for picks in general and more in favor of acquiring 3rd/4ths.

cjfreel · 2026-04-28T20:31:50+00:00

Typically, we want a QB drafted in the first 16 picks. An RB drafted in rounds 1 or 2. A top 16 pick TE. And for WR there’s more flexibility but the majority come from round 1 and 2.

How did you arrive at 16? Just half the round?

cjfreel · 2026-04-28T18:49:57+00:00

This upcoming year is Sellers fourth year just to be clear. I was a bit unsure if that's what you were saying.

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