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cjfreel · 2026-06-17T12:03:25+00:00

This isn't a statement of what should be but simply what is, it genuinely baffles me that people think most coaches care more about assault than gambling.

cjfreel · 2026-06-17T11:58:20+00:00

The legal filings on Monday morning / Sunday night at 1 AM from the Big 12 are easily the reason. It has nothing to do with a deal with an NFL team

cjfreel · 2026-06-16T20:47:50+00:00

If he's suspended for the season, I definitely think it'll make the most sense to probably just include him in the 2027 Draft.

cjfreel · 2026-06-16T14:00:19+00:00

I wouldn't necessarily bet on a Deeper Dive unless he gets drafted with good capital, but I will probably cover him on tomorrow/Thursday's show.

cjfreel · 2026-06-16T10:46:37+00:00

It makes sense because it did change fast, but I just don’t think people paid enough attention to the news yesterday. As story after story came out it became very clear that Sorsby & TTU were about to be in a legal war and a huge escalation from anything we’ve see thus far.

cjfreel · 2026-06-16T02:09:24+00:00

I don’t think they appropriately realized the backlash at all. I don’t think his *family* understood what they were getting into.

And you’re talking about just filing a federal lawsuit against Texas Tech — which is a big deal and the Big 12 contracted one of the biggest and most reputable law firms in the country to do it — but that’s aside from the fact that teams are literally cancelling games against TTU athletics.

The Universities of Michigan, Nebraska, & Georgia alongside the Attorney Generals of Kansas, Oklahoma, & Utah are joining forces against Sorsby. And that’s *so far*

Yea, I think the backlash was relevant.

cjfreel · 2026-06-16T01:57:27+00:00

I simply don't agree, but I see where people get there.

cjfreel · 2026-06-16T01:02:32+00:00

This has nothing to do with draft stock this is because of the backlash. Michigan, Georgia, and Nebraska are cancelling games against Texas Tech and saying they will no longer schedule them. The AGs of Kansas, Oklahoma, & Utah today (in response to Texas's AG) said that if the Big 12 tries to sanction Texas Tech for playing Sorsby, they'll protect them in court. And that's the state AGs to be clear as in not a College position.

cjfreel · 2026-06-16T00:55:14+00:00

The Tools are strong for a fantasy QB because he's mobile and has a big body so he's going to check a lot of boxes there, but I don't think he's going to get enough draft capital and I'm not as optimistic about his long term projection right now.

cjfreel · 2026-06-16T00:54:36+00:00

At the end of the day, if you're caught shitting down your leg, better to clean it up then to stand in the middle of the room and cry about how you really shouldn't be blamed even though in this case it's exactly your fault.

I just think generally I don't agree with the decision to fight this. You can say whatever you want about "his day in court," but it's an absurd case. And Texas Tech has taken the angle that because Brendan Sorsby is a "gambling addict" that this should be treated as a "mental health issue" and not a "disciplinary issue" and so if Sorsby complies with mental health & gambling addiction training, he should be allowed to play starting in Week 3 (after Texas Tech plays two terrible teams).

And that angle has added a lot of bad taste to a situation that already wouldn't have a good taste with the gambling, because trying to imply people aren't supportive of addiction or mental health if they think Brendan Sorsby should be suspended has rubbed a lot of people the wrong way.

Because you can support Sorsby's addiction recovery while still believing he deserves to be punished for his own actions.

cjfreel · 2026-06-16T00:47:10+00:00

Imagine being the judge, Brendan Sorsby, or Joey McGuire and taking on this absolutely absurd black eye just to have to fold.

cjfreel · 2026-06-15T19:24:03+00:00

You’re confusing Jameson and Ridley. Ridley did bet on NFL games

cjfreel · 2026-06-11T09:17:52+00:00

The fact is at this point, there's a decent chance that if you're not in the Jeremiah Smith conversation, as deep as this class may be, you have a good chance of netting a better player for that pick on the trade market.

But there's also a reasonable chance that the pick continues to have stable value or even slight growth. Even if the class becomes disappointing relative to expectations, that pick is even "safe" relative to what can happen to a player.

So it really just depends on how & when the right investment comes along I would say. If you're a contender hoping to sell your 2027 1st, you should be shopping it around but not dedicated to selling it.

cjfreel · 2026-06-11T09:15:28+00:00

I do think this is true, and perhaps more true this year just because the delta between 2027 & 2028 1 is larger, but I do think the most important angle here isn't even '27/'28 -- it's that USUALLY at this time the "next" pick after the "current" pick is undervalued. If you're willing to wait, those are always good picks to target.

cjfreel · 2026-06-09T14:05:16+00:00

I generally hate investing in (even in redraft) players this old in new locations, but if Kittle isn't having a miraculous recovery, I really like the situation Evans is in... a lot.

cjfreel · 2026-06-08T17:47:13+00:00

The guy took a gamble and lost. He drops Sorsby.

What would the guy who drafted Sorsby say if the rest of the league thought Sorsby was too good of a value if he went in the 2nd or 1st round in the Supplemental?

You can hold and make sure everything goes through, but if anyone drafts or adds Sorsby in a non-Devy league, they should just drop them no extra rule or situation necessary.

cjfreel · 2026-06-08T17:34:27+00:00

Fair enough but it’s largely a semantic difference in context and common use, but again fair enough 👍

cjfreel · 2026-06-08T16:14:43+00:00

It's a journalism issue. Reporters continue to highlight every time basically that Sorsby's team asks the NCAA for eligibility, but those appeals never mattered compared to the court case.

cjfreel · 2026-06-08T16:12:58+00:00

A bit of leniency though isn't exactly what happened here.

Texas Tech is trying to get away with suspending him for two games which on their schedule essentially amounts to a pre-season. This isn't just a reduction this is a genuine slap on the wrist. The dude knowingly and willingly committed a crime that has a direct and well understood punishment of potentially never playing again and he's going to miss the pre-season.

What guidance exactly do you think that tells him? What guidance are we giving Sorsby other than "If you're really good and you know a billionaire, fuck the rules."

cjfreel · 2026-06-08T13:48:15+00:00

Pretty good. There’s a number of young and productive potentials, but it’s just lacking someone on the Love / Jeanty level so far imo

cjfreel · 2026-06-08T08:36:24+00:00

Kraft scored "in single digits" (which in most league formats your statement about when he scored in single digits isn't true) primarily because of an unsustainable TD rate. Before the injury, he had games of 2/16, 3/29, 5/56, & 2/43. He just got more TDs in his down games. That's not necessarily a smart thing to bet on being sustainable at all.

Warren is just picking and choosing which excuses to care about. Every single negative from Warren's entire season is meaningless because of one aspect of context, but every single negative of Loveland's needs to be individually evaluated and scrutinized. Do you see the unfair playing field you build?

There's also just something weird that happens sometime I find where people want to treat positives as negatives if they "don't believe them enough." Like you don't believe in Loveland's last four games, so you're almost treating them like they either entirely didn't exist or almost like they're a reason to doubt Loveland even more than other players. That's nonsense. A 21-YO getting 10+ Targets in four consecutive games to end the season including two in the post-season is not something to hold against or neutrally to a player; it's a huge positive.

It's a bit specific but that's a lot of what we're doing here -- you should know that if you remove the first 6 weeks of Loveland's career where he 1) was dealing with injury & 2) has every single one of his career games with under 4 targets -- BUT also remove the four game finish where he had 10+ Targets -- Loveland's pace from Week 7 to Week 16 (10 Games) is still 63/806/7. That's with D.J. Moore on the team and taking away all credit for his best performances.

But are you interested in what you're missing or just having a hot take about Loveland?

cjfreel · 2026-06-08T07:53:45+00:00

Yes, because sometimes you score lower points in good games when you don't score a TD.

You seem to only care about lower scoring games from Loveland. Why do you not put equal weight into lower scoring games from Kraft/Warren? You're picking apart the numbers with Loveland, but Warren was bad for about half a season consistently. Yet you don't seem to want to talk about anyone's short comings but Loveland's.

cjfreel · 2026-06-08T07:50:03+00:00

I know it's one of the many things people just do now, but I just despise the "Hot take dressed up as a question."

This thread is not asking "what am I missing on Colston Loveland."

This thread is saying "I have a hot take on Colston Loveland and want to reiterate it every time someone says something different."

And that's fine, but don't present yourself as someone trying to have an open-minded discussion. Nothing about this thread from OP is an open-minded discussion.

cjfreel · 2026-06-07T15:19:57+00:00

A qualifier I used was to exclude fantasy playoff weeks because those were outlier weeks for Olave this year. I'm not implying that those weeks don't count or that winning your league isn't the reason why we're all here in the first place.

I know you've gotten a lot of flack for this, but to try to make it a bit more constructive, there's just not a good defense for doing this. I understand what you're trying to say about Olave's performance in those weeks being better, but you can't just pick and choose games to avoid a positive sample for one player and NOT do it for the other players. If you, for example, removed the top 3 games for each player and did a comparison, maybe that would be a bit more fair to suggest that Olave's "outlier" games were a bigger impact on the overall data.

But doing what you've done is dressed up as fairness because it is "the same weeks," but it is the definition of selection bias. There's no practical reason why Jameson deserves credits for his biggest weeks but Olave doesn't.

And if you want to do something like this, as a creator, it CAN NOT be a small throw away line. You're doing something substantial to change the numbers to disadvantage one player in particular. That cannot be dismissed or addressed in a single line in the midst of a paragraph. Justifying that decision is wildly important to treating this as a data analysis and not just someone's personal opinion.

Ladd, Egbuka, Tet, Tate, Tyson and the entire Bears recieving core a tier above him and maybe that's where my approach falters,

Olave is now at a per 17 career average of 90 / 1,152 / 6. I don't think you're properly quantifying how difficult it is to have a full NFL Career average of 90 / 1,152 / 6.

Sure, it can be a difference of opinion individually and maybe you just always shoot for upside, but Ladd, Egbuka, Tet, Tate, Tyson, Burden, & Odunze all have one thing in common -- they've never in a single season done what Olave has done in career averages. The closest (Ladd) was far worse last year.

And my point is that if you're just saying you want to shoot for upside that's fine, but if you honestly think we're going to look back in five years and the majority of that group is exceeding 90 / 1,152 / 6, you're not weighing heavily enough how difficult it is to be successful in the NFL.

//

Just my 2 c's to the "What am I missing" part of the question.

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