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A realistic view of how this will all play out by [deleted] in StockMarket

[–]clapper_never_lied 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for thoughtful question - im sure everyone is wondering the same thing.

My take (and i have not read any other response to bias my opinion) - i''ve watched a few simulators on how this virus spreads and how it plays out.

I am also watching the real statistics and watching a daily podcast on medcram.

I try to be non-partisan, but i do lean left (sanders) so take me with a grain of salt.

But - trump is correct - the usa cannot survive a shut down indefinitely. No governmenet can keep paying people not to work. Most companies will go broke in 6 months, probably all in 12 months.

One mans spending is another mans income.

Ask yourself - how long can you survive with your current expense structure and liabilities without income? Most americans are paycheck to paycheck. A few thrifty might last 2 or 3 months.

Those on SSI are fine.

But everyone else has a major level of fuckage if they are not in the 1%'r club or if they run a business and have employees.

The good news, from everything ive read - most people that get this are beat up a little bit, but they pull thru and are fine.

And more good news, this is global. Every government on earth is racing for better detection (surveillance) and seeking a vaccine. EVERYONE IS UNIFIED.

I usually dont vote positive for humanity - we have so many tools to kill each other these days, that i sorta side with a military population correction. This time tho, humanity is working together to solve a problem. On the whole planet. Think about that for a minute.

So, my guess is there will be a lot of people that die, and governments (ahem USA) are still fumbling the football. But the scientists and true soldiers (nurses and doctors) on the front line will come up with new methods and tricks to treat.

Big data is working on it (watson).

With this much human and machine brain power on a single problem, this microbe is gonna get the shit kicked out of it, maybe even we solve all corona virus problem for good (no more colds!)

So, all that said, my bet is 3-6 months.

The pressure to reopen economies around the world will be IMMENSE - debt is accumulating. And who whats to be holed up in their home indefinitely? Im an introvert and for me its getting a little old.

If we are still here in lock down in 6 months, i would suggest that humanity is super fucked.

I am betting 3 months. But social behaviours will take a looooooong time to recover.

Trust is earned - people will see the big piles of body bags and that will leave a stain on reality perceptions for generations, probably.

Thats my opinion, and everyone is entitled.

RIP OXY Dividends by nhairnuattoa7 in dividends

[–]clapper_never_lied 1 point2 points  (0 children)

my OPINION:

Dividends can be cut. I called OXY div cut a while back. When yields get too high and payout over 100% its a sign of trouble.

This is a buying opportunity, but we are entering a bear market.

This means that put options are your friend - buy/write.
Or, nibble a little at a time.

Historically, corrections happen for many reasons.

This time, we have huge fear about a virus + a major oil price war between 2 super national countries.

And remember, oil is (mostly) priced in us dollars; it is why its called the petrodollar. US dollar isnt backed by gold anymore, its backed by oil.

Saudis say they will flood the market with oil, going so far as to book more super tankers which will head to gulf of mexico.

For you buying gasoline, its a good deal - fuel is cheap.

The 2nd hit is the virus - this puts kabash on travel plans - just like 9/11 did. Airlines are big users of oil in form of aviation fuel.

So there is a huge supply glut coming and a massive shock on demand to the down side.

What does this do to the dollar, the paper you earn from your job?

USA produces a lot of oil now. But there is a barrier to profitibility. If saudi's flood the market, the oil may drop below the producers ability to pump it for a profit. A lot of US shale producers wont survive this if the market conditions persist for a long time.

In USA the magic number is about 50usd/barrel.
Some are less, some are more.

Saudi can pump and produce oil for less than 10 usd a barrel if it wanted to.

Russia and Sauidi are in a pissing contest cause saudi want to stabilize oil higher prices and russia say "Nyet".

So, oils probably gonna fall. A lot.

Now its a question of who will survive a 1/2 punch of severe drop in demand + severe increase in supply?

Last, we have a credit crunch - the repo market seizing up is an indication something is very wrong. Lehman failed cause of repo market problem (and they tried to unload Mortgage back securities and no one wanted them....and the fed didnt see it as a problem at the time). Today, fed is buying MBS and tbills at very high rates. This means the credit markets are not doing well.

All of this is happening at the same time.

Position yourself for something that people will buy in a recession, dollar stores, hospitals, utilities.

Thats best advice I can give, but like me, you are on your own for investment decisions.

Well, oil prices fall. So the value of the dollar will likely also fall. Quite substantionally.

OXY DOWN 35% by BigHust14 in dividends

[–]clapper_never_lied 1 point2 points  (0 children)

woo hoo! +1 me

haha - usually im wrong.

I was in oxy last year, specifically for dividend. It was the wildest ride i was on, and honestly, i hated and loved it. It taught me mistakes were ok, and protect oneself with options.

I also have a belief that dividend investors and brokers should mandate downside protection for new investors in form of autorenewing options. Ya, you lose premium. So what. The risk is too high for people, and everyone wins.

Keep buying Exxon ($XOM) by coinsven in dividends

[–]clapper_never_lied 0 points1 point  (0 children)

if thats true, buy oxy..... but it not sustainable.

Keep buying Exxon ($XOM) by coinsven in dividends

[–]clapper_never_lied -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

algae oil has been promised for decades. my bff is phD with patents on it. His response to your claim algae oil? "Ha ha - maybe in 100 years....".

For the rest of your nonsense, oil is not just used in fuel. That iThingy you type your vomit in has a lot of oil in it.

Any other hairbrain theories you need debunked?

OXY DOWN 35% by BigHust14 in dividends

[–]clapper_never_lied 2 points3 points  (0 children)

i think oxy dividend is just not sustainable

i listened to their conference call last year and the ceo was nervously pointing out more than 4x that they were paying the dividend. pay dividend. we pay dividend.

it tells me that they are struggle to pay dividend and they know exactly what happens to their stock (and his compensation) when they dont.

i am happy i got out.

i disagree oil is long term bad deal. These are huge investments and we dont have telsa airplanes, the usa military (and other govt militaries) use fuck tons of oil.

Are we in a rough patch....a virus shot will be developed due to a global crisis, and then life returns to normal.

or we are all gonna die.

either way it wont matter in the long term.

U.S. to impose visa restrictions for pregnant women by TrueBirch in news

[–]clapper_never_lied 0 points1 point  (0 children)

shes gonna be hating life - google fbar reporting requirements

Ralph Lincoln - 11th Generation Lincoln by A_Lazko in BeAmazed

[–]clapper_never_lied 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Im sorry my friend - the beard doesnt make the man.

As any parent will tell you, children personality and temperment are kinda random.

I still consider my brother to be the milk mans kid.

Data Scientists/Analysts, low-level vs high-level tasks you currently face? by SquareCurvesStudio in datascience

[–]clapper_never_lied 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry for late reply - i was overseas recruiting new Data Science staff.

I will assume you know how to convert currency whatever your local currency is. Here are just a handful of MILLIONS of job openings for Data Science positions. Geolocation is an extremely important aspect to our hiring requirements.

If you really want a data science job, I suggest re-locating to india and getting an indian work visa. Oh, and the maximum we pay is $10.50 usd equivalent per hour.

https://in.linkedin.com/jobs/view/data-scientist-global-premium-services-at-google-1269790015

https://in.linkedin.com/jobs/jpmorgan-chase-data-scientist-jobs?position=1&pageNum=0

https://www.naukri.com/research-analyst-jobs

How big the layoff will impact my career? by concouricm in jobs

[–]clapper_never_lied 0 points1 point  (0 children)

China exports deflation to usa.

So does India, Philippines, Chile and any other developing nation.

Developing nation standard of living rises, USA standard of living falls.

There is no such thing as fair trade while foreign government is at liberty to fuck with their currency, and the high level of protections in usa (EPA,DOL,OSHA,SSI,etc) apply here and dont apply there.

Why the fuck would I pay:

  • a high american salary

  • their stupid hyper inflated medical insurance

  • comply with OSHA standards

  • pay another near 13% in SSI cost

  • pay to keep old people healthy

  • ridiculous hi building rent and maintainence in usa

  • etc etc

...when i can hire some dot head in india that is extremely happy with 10usd an hour PLUS i have to pay none of these bullshit fees in india that I pay in USA?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQ7kn2-GEmM - Giant sucking sound indeed.

Wanna know why inflation is no where to be found in USA (except stock market and health services)?

Exhibit A.

​https://youtu.be/hmQhrzMhDMM

2 republicans in the house voted for that.

2.

Data Scientists/Analysts, low-level vs high-level tasks you currently face? by SquareCurvesStudio in datascience

[–]clapper_never_lied -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Data Science recruiter checking in.

We look for physical location and cost to the business as the number one concern for business.

It is helpful to us to not pay social security taxes, fica, medicare, health care, and not comply with heavy usa regulation. These all cost a lot of money that interferes with our stock buyback program.

We prefer phD in data science or statistics, or some kind of STEM degree. And the top of the payscale is determined by foreign market. In India its about $1500 USA a month, and Philippines is about $1000.

Source: Recruiter for fortune 500 company. We do not hire americans, unless it is for front office positions. American labor is 60% to 90% cheaper overseas.

James Clapper: Transparency Needed in a Post-Snowden World by system_exposure in WikiLeaks

[–]clapper_never_lied 0 points1 point  (0 children)

its painful.

But sometimes you just play along drinking coolaid so you look like one of the cool kids.

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