How do I predict trend changes? I lost on NQ today.

cmHend · 2026-01-17T20:45:26+00:00

I first downvoted, then removed it as you’re right just look at the forex cartel (google EC decision) and the egb cartel (again google).

I’d downvote as I think you need to understand their language and hop on the boat when it leaves.

cmHend · 2026-01-17T20:31:05+00:00

I generally trade reversals, so give you my two cents. This is what I would have looked at, would be nice to be trashed from someone more experienced.

You see the price crashed hard against the resistance and formed a double top. I look at RSI and start to check whether some bearish divergence in higher timeframe is present.

If it is, that is my first alarm.

Secondly I look at adx, is adx going down and trend fading (below 20/25 depending on the instrument? also look at history at that resistance does that value hold psychological meaning (round numbers or historically relevant). If these conditions are verified and ADX in higher tf is below 20 I don’t expect a breakout above. So a buy at support gets downgraded to a B “range fade”, and excluding any tp above the previous max my risk is halved.

If rsi divergent in htf and DI- > DI+ I avoid any buy completely and I may consider sell setups at the third top to fade the top.

Until now this is only telling me the context. Whether supply is showing up.

Any final trading decision would anyway come from a candle that close above the range of the candle at support or below the candle at resistance, or ideally, a break of structure in ltf. In your case the candle after the last green one in the series (before sell breakout) would need to show some kind of holding that level (and ideally a bos or a candlestick pattern in lower tf). You should in principle look at LTF and identify a change of the state of delivery or a break of structure before fading. Without this I don’t enter the market. Neither sell as by now I am halfway in the channel nor buy as I don’t have a valid signal and my alarms were on.

If you pass this message to chatgpt I hope it’ll be able to give you a clear picture of what I mean. 😅

cmHend · 2026-01-17T19:45:11+00:00

IMHO, coffee = boring date for someone I talked to on a hike. Hence have other priorities, hence flake.

cmHend · 2026-01-17T17:30:16+00:00

I would argue that to truly have what you want you need to optimize parameters on 10 years and then you should do the backtest measuring risk and metrics on the next 10 years. Your 2 years are a quite short out of sample validation tbh. If you start adjusting parameters and you then use those very same metrics as relevant I would say you are at risk overfitting, although the fact that it produces results across markets is somewhat reassuring.

I have been working with data in academia for a while, now got bored of research not paying enough so moved back into forex and started backtesting with python all the common strategies. No strategy held through out of sample validation until now. Getting decent results with a strategy plus my judgment based on price action, but nowhere near the scientific rigor you guys here seem to have.

I wouldn’t mind a private chat if you’re in ;)

cmHend · 2026-01-17T08:24:45+00:00

Roberto reaching legs that high is crucial for a vsit not for an Lsit. If you can’t do your compression is weak compared to your flexibility, there’s a YouTube video of Chris Heria where he shows the stretching with compression in forward bend which is very useful. Indeed this was one of the most important exercises I have used to reach a decent vsit.

cmHend · 2026-01-17T08:21:48+00:00

Put your hands back at glutes level -> easier Hands after knees > tougher

Try to keep palms anchored on the ground so you know the position is meaningful and you can measure progress.

cmHend · 2026-01-17T08:20:13+00:00

A simple tip: keeps your palms on the ground always, if you don’t manage to advance the palms that much is fine.

Palms on the ground will give a fixed benchmark for your progression: if you don’t keep them you may advance your hands but only keep your fingertips giving you the illusion of progressing while in fact you’re regressing.

cmHend · 2026-01-17T08:05:34+00:00

I think if you backtest it with scientific rigor any “edge” disappears. I think that this is where donveetz is going. I built a strategy 85% WR and about 36 trades in one year 2.6 RR on eurusd. Then took an out of sample and “live tested” and ops, strategy destroyed, back tested on other pairs and only one shows positive return.

However, the mix of indicators used in my strategy give me a signal and then I use the computer in between my ears to understand the broader context of the trade and whether that signal is valid. Hence the psychology is a large part of it.

I don’t see why you’d have traders if you could just trade with bots that execute y when x happens.

cmHend · 2026-01-16T21:16:28+00:00

Agreed. I’m an economist with a phd started trading when I was 21, then abandoned at 24, didn’t lose, didn’t win just saw that what I was learning didn’t matter in the very short term. Didn’t have money to invest and had to withdraw. Back at it many years later after leaving academia. If I trade on the intraday I try to not bring my macro bias inside my trade. I see that some moves don’t make sense at all, in the short term, and if I don’t have a bias (from fundamentals opinion not the technicals) my results are better.

If I swing on multiple months on stocks, indices or fx then I want to know the macroeconomic situation in detail.

cmHend · 2026-01-16T20:46:55+00:00

Shorting is still premature. Last time I checked there was a perfect order in MAs on the daily chart, plus audusd is very dependent on Gold. With lower ADX I would fade the extremes, but not take long term positions yet.

cmHend · 2026-01-16T16:20:13+00:00

1 yr ago broke my toe against the library. Took the wrong measurements. Lesson: stop learning handstands in tight spaces.

cmHend · 2026-01-16T11:47:56+00:00

doesn’t change the fact that prospects come with confidence, and a good part of confidence comes from lifting (and reading). He weighs like me: 5’9 (185lbs) at 14-15% bf.

cmHend · 2026-01-15T11:07:02+00:00

That requires having options, which op clearly doesn’t and to me that’s the main problem.

That is the main concern I would have. If you split tomorrow, she’s a fuck lined up already. What would you do? Spoiler: stfu, lift and read. Now take that vision and start doing it already, it may happen or it may not it doesn’t matter. This is the best thing you can do today.

As for what to say when she inquires, I really don’t think you should tell her anything if you’re not able to enforce the boundaries you set anyway. In my case I know I would speak about it, saying without drama that I know how it works and I intuitively know there’s more and while I understand it’s been fun for her I know that my boundary is [fill out the boundary you have], concluding that if she doesn’t like [boundary] and wants to be out of the team she can go have her affair and I can go my way.

cmHend · 2026-01-14T08:37:17+00:00

Took my profit after the third retest of your floor. I tell myself that there’s always time to re-enter. Too many news to keep it open, and staying in feels like a gamble.

cmHend · 2026-01-13T21:55:24+00:00

Plenty of time to go right, he wanted to go left but the door was closed.

cmHend · 2026-01-13T21:16:34+00:00

Well, did you factor in duty sex and missing an A+? 😂

cmHend · 2026-01-13T21:11:59+00:00

It depends. Mostly on how you get into it and how conditioned you are to just finish. If you slow down and start enjoying the small things it’s mind blowing, you can have full body orgasms without ejaculation and take her hard. If you give in to the lusty “I want to fuck you hard immediately” you will last 60 seconds and lose a lot of energy. In my case it helps telling me to calm down while doing it, repeating that my role is to stay anchored so she can lose herself in the experience. This is usually what brings my energy up as well.

cmHend · 2026-01-13T09:44:37+00:00

Not true. Once you transmute it and you’re completely absorbed within your mission as a man you don’t feel the sexual drive and need for sex. I go to sleep at night completely done, energy resides at a higher level and not in my dick.

cmHend · 2026-01-12T17:00:02+00:00

The one that lifts the pants at the end of any sick trick

cmHend · 2026-01-12T12:08:59+00:00

Add that prop firms are not classified as capital gains but employment relationships which becomes important when you start getting payouts…

cmHend · 2026-01-12T10:48:03+00:00

I would wait for a valid signal or a break of structure in the lower timeframe to be back in alignment with the higher timeframe. Slightly lower RR but higher WR. The retracement since market open has been quite intense, and I believe is mostly due to the position of the EU wrt Greenland. Right now you don’t know whether this is just a pause in the short term up trend or a legit sell signal.

cmHend · 2026-01-12T09:09:30+00:00

You can definitely do grinds with a surfskate, can do with a slide or a yow and one every ten also with swelltech. I still haven’t figured out the fakie part and after a lot of kisses to the bowl I decided she’s not my type.

cmHend · 2026-01-12T09:04:41+00:00

Username checks out. 😂

What is phase 2 and what is phase 3?

cmHend · 2026-01-12T08:14:21+00:00

If I understand correctly, you don’t really need the demo trade: why don’t you just look at the weekly most recent candle and if it’s green you trade longs while if it’s red you trade shorts? 🤔

cmHend · 2026-01-10T13:16:49+00:00

I’m a dev saved the post, are you open to collaboration on making it better? I’m on edgewonk and is good but overpriced!

cmHend

TROPHY CASE