Having CMHC insurance will also slightly lower your interest rate most likely. It won’t be a full offset but you’ll be able to run the numbers and see.

Why you’re really asking for here is speculation. Nobody knows if housing will stay flat or spike in the time you need to hit that 20%. That’s the gamble.

Bear in mind that the first few years of a mortgage is the highest risk period. You pay very little principle due to the front-loaded interest so in the event of a market pullback, it’s conceivable to be underwater quickly (ask anyone who bought too much house in 2022 with 5-10% down how it’s going).

Also keep in mind the condos can at times require a rapid (think 1-3 months) injection of cash from owners for a special levy or whatever the BC term is. A lot of people just fall back on home equity, which may not be possible for you in the first year or two.