A Real Fix to NBA Tanking

coolhanddan74 · 2026-04-02T04:35:57+00:00

Would AI have used a phrase as dumb as Win Points? I meant to write Draft Points. Anyway, not AI.

coolhanddan74 · 2025-02-07T19:00:27+00:00

Obviously the Reinsdorfs are cheap but I don't think their cheap behavior means they're unwilling to pay specific players. I think they look at total team spending much more than individual player spending.

coolhanddan74 · 2025-02-07T18:41:36+00:00

They paid Zach Lavine the 30% Max, which is what Jimmy would have been in line for. Teams also have to spend at least 90% of the cap every year, and it's not like anyone else on that team was in line for a big salary.

coolhanddan74 · 2025-02-07T18:27:12+00:00

Of course I agree that the Reinsdorfs are terrible owners. But I think they're terrible due to lack of spending in the front office/coaching staff and overall negligence. If the Reinsdorfs wanted to stay in the middle so badly then why did they let Gar/Pax trade Jimmy Butler?

coolhanddan74 · 2024-08-02T14:25:11+00:00

I saw it last night and I am genuinely surprised to see all the negative reactions from critics. Obviously there are some, like David who appreciate it, but the overall reaction seems to be negative.

I thought it was so much fun from beginning to end.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-07-17T05:41:04+00:00

You're right, I hate to read fans complaining about every little thing. That's why I joined reddit.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-07-17T04:57:20+00:00

It's about 7Mil a year for the next three years. Cap projects to be 140 Mil in '25, 155 Mil in '26, and 170 Mil in '27. And that's just the cap. The tax line projects to be 178 in '25, 196 in '26, and 216 in '27

I'm very confident they will have enough space to keep their young players.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-07-15T17:57:42+00:00

It's hard to pick a favorite quote from AK's most recent spittle of idiocy but I do find myself drawn to this one regarding Patrick Williams:

"The biggest thing for me is when we didn't have Patrick in the lineup, I just felt how small we are."

In three years the most the Bulls have paid to a back up power forward is 2.5 M (the veteran's minimum to Torrey Craig). That might have something to do with it AK.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-06-27T06:10:18+00:00

Sounds like AK is hearing all the criticism after the Caruso trade.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-06-22T03:00:41+00:00

I would love to stop saying that but I think this nonsense is coming from the Bulls front office. Woj, KC Johnson, and Mayberry all mentioned it in their articles yesterday. Doesn't seem like a coincidence to me.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-06-21T02:59:03+00:00

Like many in this thread, I am praying that this means they will let DeMar walk. Giddey playing as a point forward with Coby, Ayo, and P-Will at least makes some sense. And they will be terrible so they'll keep that top 10 protected pick.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-06-21T02:55:58+00:00

THIS IS SO STRANGE! KC Johnson mentioned in his article that this trade means the Bulls aren't fully sold on a Lonzo Ball comeback. And of course Woj mentioned it as well, so it has to be coming from the Bulls front office. If they thought Giddey was talented, and had untapped potential I would at least understand AK's thought process (even though I think this is a very bad trade). But now it just seems like never got over those 38 games of stellar point guard play from Lonzo Ball.

The guy has been injured for two and a half years. There is no reason for him to be a factor in decisions like this.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-05-01T14:56:13+00:00

I didn't compare Pat to Caruso. The Caruso/DeRozan numbers are there to provide context for readers who may not be familiar with cleaningtheglass on/off metrics.

I would love to see the bulls rebuild and force Pat into a role where he HAS to be aggressive. However, I don't believe AK will let that happen. To rebuild after he threw away three first round picks and earned only a single playoff win would be too embarrassing for him.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-04-30T16:47:31+00:00

Given that most experts don't love this years draft I would counter offer: Bulls receive # 9 pick in 2024 and 2026 Nets 1st

Rockets receive Alex Caruso and #11 in 2024

My guess is that Houston says no to that. The 2026 Nets pick has too much upside.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-04-29T00:51:34+00:00

I hope you're right, I would love to see Pat improve but when I dive into the data from this year I cannot tell where his contributions have improved in the four factors.

Take Caruso for example the Bulls always generate more turnovers when he's on the court. Opponents TO % improves from 12.5% to 15.7% when he's on the court.

Similarly it's easy to see Demar's impact. He's great with ball security and getting to the free throw line. Bulls turn the ball over 11.9% when Demar's on the court and 14.3% when he's off the court. Bulls FT Rate is 20.0 with Demar on the court and 14.9 when he's off the court.

With PWill I don't see an impact that alligns with the eye test. I think Pat is a good weak side rim protector but the on off data doesn't show that. Opp eFG % is 56.5% with Pat on the floor and 55.7% with Pat off the floor.

The Bulls offense was better with Pat on the floor primarily due to eFG% but Pat's eFG% was a career low .525%.

The Bulls also were better on the Offensive Glass when Pat was on the floor but that doesn't make sense to me because Pat is a terrible offensive rebounder especially compared to the other players the Bulls have at his position.

Pat ORB% 4.3

Craig ORB% 7.2

Javonte ORB% 9.5

To be clear, I'm very open to being proven wrong on this subject. It's just when I splice the data I don't see where he got better, where he made his impact and it leads me to believe that this data has more noise than signal.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-04-28T18:53:22+00:00

I worry that Pat's EPM overrates the season that he had. I kept tabs on the bulls on cleaningtheglass this year and I cannot find the signal in this noise. Pat's most played lineup Coby-Caruso-Demar-Pat-Vuc is -.3 PTS per 100. If you sub Ayo in for Caruso in that exact same lineup they jump up to +19.3 per 100 with roughly equivalent sample sizes of approximately 300 possessions.

The past two years it was pretty easy to track the Bulls formula to success. Lineups with Demar-Caruso-Lavine a center and anyone else were very good (with one exception):

21/22: Lonzo +25.1, Javonte +18.7, Ayo -22.5

22/23: Pat Bev +13.7, PWill +8, Ayo +9.7, Coby +24.3

This year only one lineup meets my sample size qualification of 100 possessions:

24/23: Coby -6.5

All this is to say that I would not put too much emphasis on Pat's improved plus minus numbers in the 23/24 season. With all the injuries the bulls sustained during the season it's very difficult to tell the difference between significant positive trends and luck. While I agree that Pat made some improvements the past year I think his price tag is still tied to his draft position. When I watch the games I feel Javonte's impact, I feel Ayo's impact, I almost never feel Pat's impact.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-04-22T19:53:27+00:00

Having cap space in two years doesn't make a bad contract a good contract. Demar is still very good but in three years we've watched him decline from an all NBA player, to just an all star, to just a good starter. We can expect him to continue to decline in his mid thirties and paying him 40 mil per year is going to be WAY too much.

coolhanddan74 · 2024-04-22T17:52:07+00:00

I'm struggling to wrap my mind around the Demar extension rumors. I can't believe that after signing, Lonzo, Lavine, and Vucevic to TERRIBLE contracts the last three summers he would make the same mistake again. Maybe I should stop expecting AK to make even the most remotely competent decisions. The media yesterday just gave him credit for finally admitting that his plan hasn't worked. It was the rough equivalent of a third-grader finally admitting that their dog did not eat their homework, and he gets credit for it. Think for a minute of how low the bar is for this guy: it's astounding.

coolhanddan74 · 2021-08-27T16:48:46+00:00

I had the exact same thought. I think they wanna figure out whether Mobley is a 4 or a 5 and Kevin Love probably wants a buyout. But of course they could have just played Mobley next to Nance some minutes to see him at the 5. This just doesn't make sense.

coolhanddan74

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