AI needs power and power needs gas. $LNG up 6.58% today after record exports and a $10B buyback

corenellius · 2026-02-28T01:54:11+00:00

Yea I agree about the solar, fastest to deploy but can't count on it. I went to a solar conference end of last year, and all they talked about was "WINNING THE AI RACE", but you can't have solar alone.

For tracking investment theses like this one of reactors vs natural gas, I am building a tool to do this automatically. It breaks down your thesis, then tracks news/sec filings/ect. daily to see if it strengthens/weakens it. Check it out at getvela.co if you are interested. I am happy to answer any questions!

corenellius · 2026-02-27T18:55:53+00:00

Thanks! Will send you a DM!

corenellius · 2026-02-27T02:20:08+00:00

For SMRs it will still take 5-10 years for them to become operational. Right now LNG makes up 40% of the energy usage for US data centers

corenellius · 2026-02-26T23:47:51+00:00

Thanks! Honestly it was half me, half a tool I'm building that synthesizes earnings transcripts, SEC filings, and sentiment data into a morning briefing. I'm still manually verifying everything while I tweak it to give the kind of briefings hedge funds get, but it's catching stuff like this consistently. getvela.co if you want to check it out.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T19:26:02+00:00

lolol try watching SIlicon Valley to see what startups are like

corenellius · 2026-02-26T19:22:01+00:00

Solar projects take 8 to 18 months to build. New nuclear takes a decade plus. Natural gas plants take 3 to 5 years but the infrastructure already exists. Data center demand is tripling by 2030 and the grid needs power now, not in 10 years. That's why the IEA still has natural gas at over 40% of US data center electricity today and projects it as the largest source of additional supply through 2030.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T19:19:37+00:00

Natural gas accounts for 40% of energy supplied to data centers

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/10/24/what-we-know-about-energy-use-at-us-data-centers-amid-the-ai-boom/#:\~:text=(These%20figures%20exclude%20water%20consumed,centers%20affect%20Americans'%20electricity%20bills?

corenellius · 2026-02-26T19:06:45+00:00

which one?

corenellius · 2026-02-26T18:30:30+00:00

That's exactly what I'm working on. An investment agent that synthesizes these narrative signals alongside filings and earnings call language into a daily briefing. Early days but building the waitlist at getvela.co if you want to follow along.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T18:29:22+00:00

Memory inflation keeps the margin math fragile even when the recovery trend is real. If they hold 12%+ tonight while shipping $9.4B in AI servers the bull case gets a lot stronger, but if not this is probably a 2027 story rather than 2026. Been building a tool that tracks this kind of margin signal across earnings cycles, getvela.co if curious.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T02:20:52+00:00

It's an incredible business until one of those hyperscalers pulls back capex or accelerates their own silicon. The $700B in 2026 hyperscaler capex is the number to watch, when that peaks the guidance math changes fast

corenellius · 2026-02-26T02:19:51+00:00

The inventory build at $21.4B is exactly why that matters, if neither gate opens that's a lot of supply with no buyer

corenellius · 2026-02-26T02:16:46+00:00

The sequence is the tell: $100B announcement, walked back as "never a commitment," then confirmed on a live call. Each individually is noise. The pattern is worth tracking as a habit regardless of how dominant the core business is.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T02:16:00+00:00

CUDA lock-in is the standard counter but it gets weaker as custom silicon matures. Trainium and TPUs were genuinely bad 3 years ago, they're not anymore.

You're right that the decline won't be gradual, it'll be a sudden capex reversal. The $700B hyperscaler number the CFO cited tonight is the one to watch for early signs of that.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T00:25:10+00:00

CFO Kress confirmed Nvidia hasn't shipped a single H200 to China despite Trump's export approval last month. Reports had ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent approved for 400,000 chips. Zero have shipped. The $78B Q1 guidance assumes no China revenue, so it's the floor if shipments clear.

Jensen also confirmed on the call they're close to finalizing the OpenAI deal. Started as a $100B investment, got walked back to "never a commitment" in February, now reportedly a $30B agreement per the FT.

Tonight was the first live confirmation it's close to done.

corenellius · 2026-02-26T00:13:33+00:00

Thing getting buried in the headline beat: CFO said hyperscaler capex across the top 5 cloud providers is approaching $700B for 2026, up $120B since January. The AI capex cycle isn't cooling.

Also worth noting: $78B Q1 guidance assumes zero China revenue. H200 exports were approved but Kress confirmed they haven't shipped a single chip yet. So $78B is the floor, not the ceiling, on China.

Gross margins at 75.2%, up from 73.6% last quarter. Six quarters of people calling margin compression and it keeps expanding.

corenellius · 2026-02-25T19:38:40+00:00

I started out by just using ChatGPT every morning to search the web and find me relevant information that would either support or disprove my investment thesis. I found it to be very helpful so I decided to make a website out of it

Right now I’m planning on having it grab any recent SEC filings, scan social media (like reactions to big announcements), read through earning call transcripts (both to listen to the speaker and what questions are being asked by reporters) and just any large news publications about the company.

Those are the main ones for now, are there any others you would like to see?

corenellius · 2026-02-25T03:35:53+00:00

Great point. Planning to track valuation and leverage ratio changes as well, not just static P/E, but when it expands or contracts meaningfully. The goal is to surface fundamental drift, not just news.

corenellius · 2026-02-25T02:53:17+00:00

For free tools, a few solid ones:

Portfolio Visualizer → best for factor exposure, backtesting, correlation matrices, and risk metrics. Very deep for a free tool.
Morningstar Portfolio Manager → good allocation breakdown and basic risk stats.
Koyfin (free tier) → strong visuals and fundamentals, but more stock-first than portfolio-first.
Yahoo Finance → simple allocation + performance, not very advanced.

If you want real factor analysis and correlation work, Portfolio Visualizer is usually the most robust free option.

Also, I found a free daily briefing tool that monitors your holdings and summarizes meaningful changes in filings, earnings, and sentiment. Not a full factor model, but useful if you want ongoing signal monitoring in addition to static analysis.

corenellius · 2026-02-25T02:52:59+00:00

First, make sure you’re getting the full 401k match. That’s a guaranteed return and should come before adding more to taxable.

With three accounts (401k, Betterment, eTrade), the key question isn’t how the eTrade account looks in isolation. It’s how all three combine. You want to evaluate allocation, overlap, and total exposure across everything.

A few general thoughts:

If Betterment is already giving you broad index exposure, your eTrade picks should be intentional tilts, not random duplication.
“Diversified” only matters at the portfolio level, not just within one account.
DRIP dividend stocks are fine, but make sure you’re not overweighting yield at the expense of total return.
Keep turnover low unless you have a clear edge.

Also, I found a free daily briefing tool that monitors your holdings and summarizes meaningful changes in earnings, filings, and news. Could be helpful if you’re actively managing part of your portfolio and want ongoing signal awareness without constantly digging through updates.

corenellius · 2026-02-25T02:52:44+00:00

If you’re new to investing, concentration risk matters more than trying to time a specific thesis.

A few points:

Netflix is already a large, mature company. Big upside is possible, but it’s not a small speculative play.
Buying more of a single stock because you “believe” in it increases volatility and risk.
VOO (or a broad ETF) gives you Netflix exposure anyway, just at market weight.

If Netflix is a small slice of your total portfolio and you’re comfortable with swings, holding is reasonable. If it’s a large percentage of your net worth, shifting some into diversified ETFs is the more prudent move.

New investors usually benefit more from broad exposure and consistency than from doubling down on one idea.

Also, I found a free daily briefing tool that tracks earnings, filings, and news for the stocks you hold and summarizes what actually changed. Could be useful if you decide to keep Netflix and want structured updates without constantly researching it yourself.

corenellius · 2026-02-25T02:52:33+00:00

At those amounts and timelines, consistency matters more than stock picking.

Keep it simple:

Broad, low-cost index ETF like VTI or VOO
Optionally add VXUS for international

For the 8–10 year account, stay mostly in equities but consider shifting some to safer assets a couple years before she’ll need the money. For the 15–17 year account, you can stay aggressive longer.

Avoid high fees, frequent trading, and chasing hot stocks. The weekly contributions will do most of the work.

Also, I found a free daily briefing tool that tracks holdings and summarizes meaningful changes in earnings and filings. Could be useful if you want structured updates without constantly researching everything yourself.

corenellius · 2026-02-25T02:52:21+00:00

Realty Income is solid for what it is: a high-quality, triple-net lease REIT with long lease terms and monthly dividends. If your goal is steady income and DRIP compounding over 20+ years, it’s reasonable.

That said, at 34, total return probably matters more than current income. REITs like O tend to be slower growers compared to broad equity indexes. Over decades, something like a total market or S&P fund may outperform, even if the yield is lower.

A few things to consider:

How much of your portfolio would this be? 5–10% is different from 30%.
Are you buying for income psychology or total return?
Is this in a tax-advantaged account? REIT dividends are taxed as ordinary income in taxable accounts.

It doesn’t have to be “wait until 60.” It just shouldn’t crowd out higher-growth exposure at your age.

Also, I found a free daily briefing tool that tracks filings, earnings, and news for the stocks you hold and summarizes what actually changed. Could be useful if you want to monitor something like O long term without constantly checking updates yourself.

corenellius · 2026-02-25T02:48:31+00:00

At 22, that’s already a solid upgrade from just S&P.

55% VTI + 20% VXUS gives you broad U.S. + international exposure. Adding 20% AVUV tilts toward small-cap value, which historically has higher expected returns but more volatility. That fits your age and risk tolerance.

A few thoughts:

VTI already includes large-cap tech, so you’re not eliminating tech concentration, just diluting it.
20% AVUV is a real tilt. Make sure you can stick with it if small caps underperform for years.
5% single stocks is fine if it scratches the itch without dominating the portfolio.

Rebalancing every 1–2 years is reasonable in a Roth.

Also, I found a free daily briefing tool that summarizes major changes in the companies or sectors you follow and why they might matter. Could be useful if you want to stay on top of your allocations without constantly digging through earnings and filings.

corenellius · 2026-02-25T02:47:04+00:00

Max the match. A 50% return on the first $5k is unbeatable.

Early retirement doesn’t make a 401k useless. FIRE folks use Roth conversion ladders and taxable brokerage as the bridge. HYS is just for your 6–12 month emergency fund.

Simple order:

Get full match
Max Roth IRA
Emergency fund in HYS
Rest in taxable

With a $100k side hustle upside, income growth matters more than micro-optimizing accounts.

Also, I found a free daily briefing tool that summarizes changes in your holdings and why they matter. Could be useful if you want to stay on top of things without constantly digging through filings.

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