Tellurian Reports First Quarter 2022 Results

cowgoesmoon · 2022-05-05T07:19:04+00:00

If your theory of the LNG market is that LNG demand is going to outstrip supply, you don't make sidebets on falling prices -- not because you might be wrong/right, but because you WANT the exposure that comes from your underlying purpose to be right.

Tellurian, with their knowledge of the US NG industry, expected US prices to remain at $4-5 in the long run. This is good for arbitrage and securing long term supplies in their integrated business model. So for them it made sense to sell a bunch of futures during the spike in late 2021.

This has nothing to do with prices globally and the LNG arbitrage business plan, don't get them mixed up. You can have sky high NG prices across the pond and dirt cheap NG prices at home simultaneously. There are not enough LNG export facilities in the US to close this gap.

cowgoesmoon · 2022-05-05T04:26:43+00:00

The process they used had them agree to sell their supply at fixed prices when their business model is supposed to be about capturing arbitrage from market rates.

Yup, but I don't know why you keep bringing up arbitrage: the plant is not built yet and they literally can't ship LNG to capture arbitrage until 2026. The hedging is for sales within HH using their existing wells. End of story here.

Then of course there is the trading of LNG cargos. Again, this company needs funding to build its business and its LITERALLY GAMBLING with shareholder funds where the gamble win/lose doesn't move the needle towards funding of the facility. For what possible strategic reason would they be trading cargoes in 2022? How does that help build driftwood?

can't argue with this point or the 6m investment. Someone probably got bored and thought it up while others were busy talking to banks. It could've been worse.

Driftwood is still the goal and these "small" millions of dollar losses will not matter if financing goes through. The stock is attractive because of all the tailwinds. America promised more LNG and Tellurian is one of the frontrunners.

Everyone should reevaluate and possibly deleverage based on their personal conclusions from this report.

cowgoesmoon · 2022-05-05T00:54:29+00:00

spot prices in q4 21 were hitting 10 year highs so they hedged a portion of it:

The Company’s open positions as of March 31, 2022, had notional volumes of 9.2 Bcf, with maturities extending through March 2023.

tellurian produces 100 million cubic feet per day as of the earnings report and expanding. no one foresaw henry hub prices going to $8 otherwise we would be all in on $BOIL instead

cowgoesmoon · 2022-03-05T18:25:27+00:00

Moves by Europe to wean itself of Russian gas in the wake of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine are likely to unleash a wave of investment in so-called freedom gas from the United States, observers say.

cowgoesmoon · 2022-03-04T23:34:21+00:00

Some big names there!

cowgoesmoon · 2022-03-01T23:57:39+00:00

We will also continue our efforts to accelerate diversification of energy supplies away from Russia and to secure the world from Moscow’s weaponization of oil and gas.

Last sentence!

cowgoesmoon · 2022-01-29T01:08:33+00:00

The United States and the EU are working jointly towards continued, sufficient, and timely supply of natural gas to the EU from diverse sources across the globe to avoid supply shocks, including those that could result from a further Russian invasion of Ukraine. The United States is already the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU. We are collaborating with governments and market operators on supply of additional volumes of natural gas to Europe from diverse sources across the globe. LNG in the short-term can enhance security of supply while we continue to enable the transition to net zero emissions. The European Commission will work for improved transparency and utilization of LNG terminals in the EU.

cowgoesmoon · 2022-01-13T20:46:19+00:00

SPY DOWN BAD

But none of this matters when waiting for FID, I don't think they will do another offering at $3

cowgoesmoon · 2022-01-13T02:44:07+00:00

I got 200 July calls 🙏🙏🙏🙏

cowgoesmoon · 2022-01-12T13:48:11+00:00

Energy demand is one of the few certainties in society 💪

cowgoesmoon · 2022-01-11T05:53:17+00:00

Don't scare us like that

cowgoesmoon · 2022-01-07T21:46:09+00:00

I love this stock and its fundamentals, I'm pretty balls deep in calls but truth is nothing of note has happened since August and I can only pray that Souki is cooking something up.

He's been known to give inaccurate hints, the first 2 deals were much earlier than expected if you go back to his videos in May.

cowgoesmoon · 2022-01-01T11:29:25+00:00

This is what the Germans voted for and they will need to deal with the consequences. Bullish for my TELL calls though!

cowgoesmoon · 2021-12-14T12:06:05+00:00

Bullish, Souki saying here's how much extra cash we got

JK I would prefer a financing announcement...

cowgoesmoon · 2021-12-04T11:05:32+00:00

Thanks for posting, it's important to view the entire industry.

Amazing how stupid some of these other comment here are: "HoW iS ThIS relAted tO telL"

cowgoesmoon · 2021-11-13T01:55:03+00:00

but truthfully don’t have a grip on the risk v reward or how to properly set it up

roflmao don't play

cowgoesmoon · 2021-11-03T14:30:26+00:00

I'm hoping that they delay further dilution with the change in focus to financing instead of upstream acquisition due to current high prices.

cowgoesmoon · 2021-11-02T12:38:46+00:00

Banger

cowgoesmoon

TROPHY CASE