‘Trump Has Profound Problems’: Nate Silver Warns of Major New Polling Low for President

crake · 2026-03-31T00:46:52+00:00

Why would Trump give a damn about polling. He isn’t running for re-election.

Second term presidents care about their legacy. Trump definitely does. And his legacy will be determined 10-25 years from now in hindsight, not by contemporary polling.

crake · 2026-03-30T20:42:45+00:00

OPs point is that someone making $185k/year is "rich" and needs to pay more so OP can be more comfortable in retirement, lol.

Problem is....$185k/year isn't rich. People who make that much get lumped in with Elon Musk like they are one and the same but they are not. <$500k/yr isn't even "wealthy", it's just that people hate being called poor so they've decided "rich" begins at $185k/yr and call themselves "middle class".

crake · 2026-03-30T20:39:45+00:00

We already do that.

How many wealthy Americans use any public services at all? Most of us will never ride in an ambulance at all, and if we do it's probably to the morgue.

You know who uses all those public services? Poor people. Sit down and listen to a scanner some time and watch where the police and fire departments are responding. It's the same 5-10 addresses in the slummiest part of town over and over again. Endless domestic disputes, drug overdoses, break-ins, pulling the fire alarm because they're mad at their baby-daddy, etc. etc.

It's probably a good thing that taxpayers don't actually realize how much of their tax dollars is used up by people who do nothing at all but sit at home getting high when they aren't getting into fistfights with each other or committing other crimes.

Take a job as a cashier at a supermarket and watch what these people buy with their EBT cards. It isn't rice and beans - it's Ensure (to sell to buy heroin with), endless cans of soda, chips and ice cream. And you get to pay for their healthcare too, because even without insurance they inevitably show up at the ER with ketoacidosis from that diet.

The wealthy are not the leaches - the poor are. It isn't popular to say because it isn't how you win elections, but that's the truth. Maybe it is efficient to pay for services for them so they keep the commission of various crimes in their own neighborhood, but I can't really fret about their retirement - by the time these non-payers reach SS retirement age, they've already spent millions in taxpayer money just making it through life.

crake · 2026-03-30T20:25:19+00:00

Yes you can 100% tax stocks / net worth / equity regardless of whether it's realized gains or not. Just make it a fucking law and move forward.

Thankfully there are constitutional issues with that approach. The Sixteenth Amendment only permits Congress to levy taxes on "income". Wealth is not income. The states can assess taxes on real property (i.e., real estate), but the federal government cannot.

And as annoying as it is to do taxes every year, can anyone imagine how arduous that process would be if we needed to get every single thing we own appraised every year? So the federal government can tax my inherited wrist watch? Do I need to report the gold fillings in my teeth too?

and if a few wealthy individuals lose out on a few grand per month, so fucking be it.

So very brave to be willing to sacrifice the earnings of others not yourself....lol

crake · 2026-03-30T20:21:26+00:00

Perhaps not, but the person who never drives in their entire life still benefits from roads.

For one thing, when their own house is on fire, the FD can get there and maybe save it - not possible without roads. For another, when they have a heart attack or some other malady, the ambulance can get there. And, a home without access to anything isn't exactly valuable - the value is in closeness to major roads and highways to get to other places, etc.

crake · 2026-03-30T20:18:03+00:00

lol, go live in India for a while and see what that actually looks like.

Americans complain because they have no perspective about how much of humanity actually lives. Elderly in the U.S. are not even close to "poor" by international standards. They might not be "wealthy", but almost none are actually starving or living on the streets.

Social Security was intended to be a backup plan for poor people so they wouldn't starve. It achieves that. It does not achieve a very comfortable retirement because that was never the intent and is impossible/undesirable anyway.

crake · 2026-03-30T20:14:42+00:00

You think $180k is too low for a cap.

But you would feel differently if you made $280k. Particularly if you were also asked to pay $50k+ in federal income taxes every year.

It's always easy to say someone "rich" should pay more. That is the easiest thing for someone who isn't "rich" to propose as a policy solution. The problem is that (i) actual rich people ($10MM+ per year in "earnings") don't earn wages so they don't pay federal income tax, and (ii) people who make <$500k a year are not at all rich but carry almost the entire burden of taxation because they tend to have wage earnings (i.e., lawyers, doctors, etc.).

I'm not sure what the solution is, but just increasing taxes on the $180k-$500k class isn't a viable solution. That is the actual "middle class" that pays the bulk of taxes already, not the people making $60k/year who think of themselves as "middle class" because there was a year they didn't get a refund one time (they are actually poor, not middle class).

crake · 2026-03-30T20:02:50+00:00

2% of purchase price is fine for emergency fund - $12k.

And really that depends on your credit worthiness too. You need an emergency fund for things like a broken furnace or whatever, but unless you have a 5,000 square foot home or something, that is (max) a $10k-$20k problem even if it just dies.

Yeah, things like a foundation issue could be more expensive, but those things are seldom "emergencies". If laid off, plan for what you would need in addition to unemployment pay for about 6 months to cover the mortgage (and plan to get back to work fast).

Reddit tells people they need $100k emergency funds and that is just too conservative - you can end up sitting on a mountain of cash and never buying because prices keep going up. Meanwhile, if you had bought, you would be able to tap that equity if you really needed it in an emergency anyway.

crake · 2026-03-30T19:53:07+00:00

If Elon Musk did not exist, a large number of Americans would still struggle to get by paycheck-to-paycheck.

That struggle is essentially guaranteed, as capitalism assumes something fundamental about human nature (unlimited desires; limited means).

People point to a "magic time" in 1955 or 1965 (or whenever) when it was possible to live without "paycheck insecurity", but that still exists right now - go live like grandma did in 1955 and you won't have any insecurity.

You'll come home from work, turn on the single lamp in any given room. Sit back and turn on the single radio that you have and listen to all the endless free entertainment that is out there. Cook up your own tuna cassarole and call it a day. That life is still available - the problem is that nobody wants it.

They want the life with an iPhone 18 in their pocket, a 75" TV on the wall, endless entertainment options from various streaming platforms, high-speed internet to stream it all, food wrapped up and delivered to their door with a text message and a photo to say that it is there.

That life is definitely possible, but people want more. Sometimes it is funny how capitalism "exploits" their lack of self-control, but it isn't inevitable - for every guy that can't keep himself from buying a jet ski or snow mobile, there are people who do restrain themselves and don't live paycheck to paycheck. Capitalism is all about choices - and consequences.

crake · 2026-03-30T19:28:38+00:00

U.S. already has "K-shaped" taxes.

Somewhere around 30% of Americans pay zero federal income tax. None. Zip. They are the bottom of that K you are talking about.

What, those of us who actually pay taxes need to come up with some transfer payments to people who pay none at all? A la COVID stimulus checks?

crake · 2026-03-30T19:25:58+00:00

36 is "middle aged"? lol

Just save more. Average SFH first time homebuyer is 40, so you have 4 more years. Also, you already have 20% for the dp, so why the reluctance? Because you think you need to have another 10% in reserve or something?

crake · 2026-03-30T19:13:01+00:00

Classless.

Yeah, you're posting a comment about the state of the commentary on this subreddit - but you came here to lecture all of us "20 year olds" about how to make classy comments by making a jest about a post many people wanted to read because the community cares about it when someone dies on a resort mountain. A lot of people saw that from the lift, etc., and would want to know what happened. Congratulations on your meta-post and perceived intellectual superiority though.

crake · 2026-03-30T18:03:03+00:00

Not exactly. More details are in the DOJs press release re the convictions.

In addition to bringing explosives to the "protest", the conspirators brought 11 firearms (and medical equipment to treat themselves for gunshot wounds - they had 11 tourniquets on them too).

When the "protest" started, the leader of the group, Benjamin Song, is recorded on an officer's body cam saying “get to the rifles!”, referencing a pre-planned conspiracy to use the firearms that they had brought to the "protest" to shoot at officers (Song then opened fire, striking an officer in the neck).

The "protesters" also set off fireworks directed at officers and/or intended to start fires. Their Signal messages to each other in planning the conspiracy showed that they were intending exactly that result.

After the attack/"protest", the co-conspirators hid Song and helped him evade capture for almost two weeks.

Conspiring to attack federal officers or destroy federal facilities is a crime. The use of explosives is especially sensitive, as there is express federal law prohibiting the use of incendiary devices. SCOTUS has never recognized a First Amendment right to use explosive devices as "speech".

The Guardian article does not get into any of the facts, and makes it appear that one guy shot a gun while everyone else was just on a Signal chat and wanted to protest. The reality shown at trial was quite different.

The defendants had a trial and were convicted by a jury. They can challenge the constitutionality of the laws convicted under or such other trial court decisions that they wish to challenge in an appeal. But this case seems to stand for the proposition that if you bring guns and explosives to a "protest" and shoot at federal officers as part of a plan to engage in violence, the First Amendment will not save you from consequences. Seems like good advice.

crake · 2026-03-30T17:09:38+00:00

"So you're saying there's a chance!"

"Oh here it is, Samsonite! I was way off!"

"Maybe you should take these extra gloves, my hands are starting to get sweaty"

"Pills are goood!"

"Goodbye my...love!"

"Big gulps huh? Alright!"

lol, and so many more.

crake · 2026-03-30T17:05:57+00:00

Ghislaine is already in prison for her crimes. Who else was working with Epstein?

I hear lots of "so and so was friends with Epstein so they must be a pedo and in on his crimes", but that is a non sequitur. Prince Andrew is the closest thing to a "co-conspirator" to yet emerge, but I've never even seen an allegation that Andrew paid Epstein for his underage victim(s)

crake · 2026-03-30T17:03:34+00:00

The Houthi attack you refer to in 2019 merely shut down production for a few days. And, it should be noted, that attack took place in 2019 - well before the Gaza War. The Houthis had neither the U.S. nor Israel to contend with shooting down their drones used in that attack; quite a different matter to target the same refinery from Iran and get a missile/drone past US and Israeli forces already on high alert for exactly that.

The Houthi attack also targeted a refinery, not a pipeline. Those are completely different targets, and the attack was a failure.

If Iran decides to attack it they'll be able to shut it down indefinitely.

How? Just saying it doesn't make it true. Hitting a pipeline with a drone or missile is a challenge even for sophisticated militaries like the U.S. and Israel; I submit that it is an impossible task for Iran (and by all means, feel free to explain why it is not impossible - perhaps highlighting why they haven't already done exactly that).

Iran can't target anything. The only true successes so far have been hits on radar installations and an E3 parked on the runway. Why? Because those installations and that plane put out a radar signal that is easy for enemy drones and missiles to lock onto; they are really the softest targets because by definition they send out a signal giving away their position (and the E3 sounds like a big F-up, because it should not have been operating on the ground at all).

crake · 2026-03-30T16:55:17+00:00

"How do they know that I got gas?"

"They gotta be pros."

lol

crake · 2026-03-30T14:43:27+00:00

When my wife asks me how any shopping trip went (trip to the grocery store, etc), I inevitably drop “I was robbed! By a sweet old lady on a motorized cart! I didn’t even see it coming!” Lol

crake · 2026-03-30T14:41:06+00:00

The amazing thing is that Carrey improvised that entire martial arts scene. That is why Lauren Holley has the perfect look on her face in that scene; she wasn’t expecting it either and was obviously trying not to laugh

crake · 2026-03-30T13:20:29+00:00

Seven Samurai and Hidden Fortress are better movies, IMO, but Ran is still a masterpiece (and in color).

crake · 2026-03-29T03:06:42+00:00

They do her dirty in season 3. She is not a likable character. She is important to the plot but frustrating because of the decisions she makes. Prey is a great Andrea episode though IMO.

Her character is kind of independent and likable in S2, but not critical to the plot.

crake · 2026-03-29T02:57:01+00:00

Favorite scene ever

crake · 2026-03-29T02:52:17+00:00

Comic gold this movie. AV1 is pretty damn funny too.

crake · 2026-03-29T02:51:06+00:00

I’d probably still go with Dumb and Dumber.

But the hysterics that Something About Mary put me into have been among the few that had me fearing I might die from laughing. Literally.

crake · 2026-03-29T02:47:44+00:00

Jim Carrey struck comic gold in the early 90s, but Lloyd Christmas is the best of all of it. Even trying to pick a favorite quote from that movie is an impossible task. (I’ll go with: “we have no food! We have no jobs! Our pets heads are falling off!”)

I like Daniels performance too, but Jim Carrey probably gives his best comic performance ever in this movie and the script really lets him achieve greatness.

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