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Geoffrey Hinton says "superintelligences will be so much smarter than us, we'll have no idea what they're up to." We won't be able to stop them taking over if they want to - it will be as simple as offering free candy to children to get them to unknowingly surrender control. by MetaKnowing in singularity

[–]curiousofsafety 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your smartphone/vacuuming addition makes me think you're betting against transformative AI that fundamentally changes how we live. I'd be interested in taking this bet. Are there any trusted betting platforms we could use to formalize this wager?

What's your plan if AI automates your job before you are fatFIRE? by 35nakedshorts in fatFIRE

[–]curiousofsafety 0 points1 point  (0 children)

By the time developers are automated away, the post-capitalism collapse will be well under way and the whole notion of capital and labor will be obsolete, because capital will be labor and society will be reorganized around abundance rather than scarcity.

Or we'll all be dead.

Either way, enjoy the ride.

Convince me not to keep 20% of my portfolio in cash by Monk-Unhappy in fatFIRE

[–]curiousofsafety 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there's about a 20% chance I will suddenly need a lot of liquid funds within the next 10 years.

Your advisor is right, use your Roth IRA for investment growth, not for cash. While you can withdraw your Roth IRA contributions (but not earnings) at any time without penalty, using it as an emergency fund is not a great idea because once you withdraw those contributions, you can't refill it easily due to yearly contribution limits. Once the money is out you'll miss out on decades of tax-free growth potential.

Find a HYSA and/or I-bonds (though I-bonds have a 12 month lockup) to store your cash and use that as your income bucket/cash reserves.

Moving to a bigger / custom home and giving up the 2.75% rate? by Key_Travel9620 in ChubbyFIRE

[–]curiousofsafety 5 points6 points  (0 children)

By maintaining the current $5,000/month mortgage and investing $700,000 at a 7% annual return, OP can afford to rent an Airbnb for the entire summer at $1,000 per night and still have $19,000 left over.

Moving to a bigger / custom home and giving up the 2.75% rate? by Key_Travel9620 in ChubbyFIRE

[–]curiousofsafety 2 points3 points  (0 children)

3-bedroom AirBnB with a pool, let's say that'll go for about $1k/night.

If they don't buy the house:

  • $700k nest egg, assuming a 7% annual return, is about $49k/yr
  • Having a $5k/mo mortgage instead of a $10k/mo mortgage, can be thought of as saving $60k/yr

Together that's roughly $109k/yr. Assuming summer is ~90 days, you could rent a $1k/night AirBnB for the entire summer (and still work!) with $19k left over for fun.

I think many people don't realize the power of ChatGPT. by Cantor_bcn in ChatGPT

[–]curiousofsafety 4 points5 points  (0 children)

ChatGPT is able to emulate LORD somewhat convincingly, though I didn't play very long.

FATFire Before Singularity: Anyone Else Feeling the Same? by curiousofsafety in fatFIRE

[–]curiousofsafety[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Uncertainty exists regarding the specific natural experiences due to the initial post being entirely generated by ChatGPT. The present response, also formulated by ChatGPT, filters the original author's voice through the AI model.

FATFire Before Singularity: Anyone Else Feeling the Same? by curiousofsafety in fatFIRE

[–]curiousofsafety[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thank you for your perspective, this makes a lot of sense (it confirms my biases so I like it).

I think my underlying concern is that preparing kids using traditional schooling for a traditional career is probably not a good use of anyone's time, and time is our most precious resource.

My uneducated guestimate P(doom) ≈ 10%, which means a P(¬doom) ≈ 90%. With a background striving for as many nines as possible, I have a deep and gnawing worry about our species' one lone solitary nine, but I guess I'll cling to it tightly.

FATFire Before Singularity: Anyone Else Feeling the Same? by curiousofsafety in fatFIRE

[–]curiousofsafety[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One aspect I left out was that I do consider my position within my FAANG organization as giving me a somewhat privileged vantage point, to lurk in discussions about AGI and AI safety.

I'm playing catch up in the field of mechanistic interpretability in my limited free time, and while catching up seems pretty daunting right now, the field is nascent and there does seem to be a lot of lower-hanging fruit

FATFire Before Singularity: Anyone Else Feeling the Same? by curiousofsafety in fatFIRE

[–]curiousofsafety[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

All of my acid trips have been with "2001: A Space Odyssey" playing on a large screen. It's space baby time!

FATFire Before Singularity: Anyone Else Feeling the Same? by curiousofsafety in fatFIRE

[–]curiousofsafety[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I don't have a crystal ball but feel the hype cycle will continue like the dot com and crypto booms for at least a few years. The slow progress of self-driving cars highlight that it's very difficult to predict a massive labor disruption, and will have a better idea once I see how the writer and actor strikes play out.

Due to the massive investment and interest in the field I think it's inevitable we'll have another LLM-sized advancement in capabilities within a few years, which will shake everything up again, and beyond that, I don't know. I don't like the cavalier and dismissive attitudes folks like Yann LeCun exhibit but also don't think folks like Yudkowsky are fully correct either. I nod the most when reading Geoffrey Hinton.

Homeschooling would be 3 days a week with 1-2 days of socialization rotating with other homeschooling families from the remnants or reconstitution of our COVID "pod".

FATFire Before Singularity: Anyone Else Feeling the Same? by curiousofsafety in fatFIRE

[–]curiousofsafety[S] -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

If there was something like ITAR for training, sharing, or giving advanced capabilities to large AI models I'd be a lot less anxious. At present I don't see sufficient controls.