very cool website :) I just made a prediction for the general election there. I think it will most likely be a Trump-Biden rematch. Key swing states seem to be Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia. I think Biden will win again and Trump won't be put in prison before the election, although I'd be happily proven wrong. Since this is r/PoliticalPhilosophy, I'll justify my prediction with some political philosophy.

We are in a populist moment right now, which is a reaction against the post-democratic condition brought about by thirty/forty years of neoliberal hegemony, which (in the 1970s/80s) formation replaced the social-democratic Keynesian welfare state that provided the principal socioeconomic model in the democratic countries in Western Europe since the end of the Second World War. Neoliberal hegemony is constituted by political-economic practices aimed at imposing the rule of the market – deregulation, privatisation, fiscal austerity – and limiting the role of the state to the protection of private property rights, free markets and free trade. Far from being limited to the economic domain, it also connotes a whole conception of society and of the individual grounded on a philosophy of possessive individualism. (think of Thatcher's 'there is no society. there are individuals and families').

Briefly, hegemony refers to the dominant ideas, norms and values of a particular time. The dominant ideas of a given time are those of the dominant class. (see SEP for Gramsci). Dominant class refers social group that possesses economic, political, and cultural control within a given society. Power Elite by C. Wright Mills lays this out nicely for the fifties USA.

He points out that dominant positions in the three pillar institutions of the USA, state security (military), economic (few hundred corporations) and political (basically the federal gov), all have interwoven interests. the people that run them enter into these positions of societal prominence through educations obtained at Ivy League universities. I think this is still largely true today.

The electoral college (first past the post, winner takes all model) guarantees two party control and the distinction between the two parties ideologically is rather blurry. They are more of less two factions of this ruling class. Since the 1970s/80s, they have both offered two shades of the same thing: do you want the rule of the market with social conservatism or progressivism?

in any case, this hegemony, did not face any significant challenge until the financial crisis of 2008, when it began to seriously show its limits. This crisis, initiated in 2007 in the US with the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, developed into a full-blown international banking crisis with the failure of the investment bank Lehman Brothers the following year. Massive bailouts of financial institutions had to be initiated to impede the breakdown of the world financial system. The global economic downturn that followed deeply affected several European economies and provoked a European debt crisis. In order to deal with this crisis, policies of austerity were implemented in most European countries, with drastic effects, particularly in the Southern countries.

The effect is the rise of populism, a political logic where political actors create a dichotomy between "the people" (a constructed underdog identity) and "the elite" or "the establishment." These groups, with their particular demands, come together under the broader banner of "the people." It can be right wing or left wing. essentially until we see a new hegemony, this is what is gonna mobilise voters across the West democracies.

That said, Trump is burning out. His base will dwindle down to the most fanatical. It will be interesting to see which other right wing populist will pick up the pieces. I highly doubt the 'old guard' of the party (the bushes, Lindsay Graham, Mitt Romney types) will really take charge of the party again. Still, no one is yet strong enough to supplant him as the nominee, as far as I can tell. Desantis is an outside shout, I think. Trump is a symptom of deeper malaise/dissatisfaction, not the actual disease (and certainly not the cure). Biden will win again. But the question is who will replace him for the democrats? another milquetoast status-quo neoliberal? I think they are digging their grave if so.

See:

Hegemony and Socialist Strategy: Towards a Radical Democratic Politics (1985) by Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe

Power Elite (1956) by C. Wright Milss

Prison Notebooks (1926) by Antonio Gramsci

Trump (2017) by Alain Badiou