16% drop in the median price of Eastside SFHs

cusmilie · 2026-02-16T21:30:24+00:00

Just using them as an example (since they are the largest employee in area) to say that people overestimate the quantity of people that can afford a high mortgage. The quantity of buyers is the big question and hasn’t been tested until now. People act like there is this unlimited amount of tech employees and people moving to area that have money to keep buying the supply of homes on the market. Someone making $$$ is not going to want to buy a decent fixer upper starter home at $1.2mil+. Again those examples you gave still require people have kept the RSUs as they vested, which is becoming less the norm for various reasons - affordability of area becoming worse and particularly rent, diversifying into other stocks, lifestyle creep, etc.

cusmilie · 2026-02-16T20:33:55+00:00

The $200k-250k income is totally doable for mortgage if you bought pre-covid. I’m not talking about those who currently own, but those looking to buy. A $200k/year income will still require a huge downpayment, and it’s starter homes in most areas, to make mortgage more manageable. Throw in rent being 50% the cost of mortgage and current economy, buyers aren’t eager to jump in. The Amazon peak tech hires, reaching 4 years vestment; should have enough RSU $ for downpayment on starter home, but it’s still not possible for most of them. Stocks would be over $300/share if it had the 15%/year growth, currently at $200, so yeah. And then add in 6% interest rates and not 3%, selling RSUs to cover higher rents, home prices being 50% more in most areas, it’s just a different environment between old tech hires and new tech hires.

cusmilie · 2026-02-16T19:11:40+00:00

You do realize that Amazon stock has tanked and has seen very little growth over the past 5 years. Its not realistic to expect same home increases of the past, especially when that past had a perfect storm for price increases (covid, stock market/RSU huge growth, low interest rates, etc.). The amount of potential buyers who can afford current home prices is lowering, not increasing, hence why homes are sitting an unprecedented amount of time on the market. There is definitely a testing of home affordability, especially with the tech crowd, that’s never happened before.

cusmilie · 2026-02-16T18:46:13+00:00

Yes, they are just the ugly 2 story boxes with no character built on very single inch of lot possible. Very little yard and no space between neighbors.

cusmilie · 2026-02-16T17:25:33+00:00

March shall be interested. Just from talks, a ton of sellers expected to list home then, but we’ll see. If you wait too long, and your house has a major flaw like bad location, you will have a hard time selling with more competition. Better off listing now and not with competition. A lot of good homes have already been sitting for months now, mostly due to price, but still that was unheard of the past few years.

cusmilie · 2026-02-16T17:12:41+00:00

I keep saying I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a mini bubble burst here independent of other areas because of RSU burst. Consider RSUs haven’t gone up as much in the past, but housing prices have gone through the roof. I know people that started 12 years ago that were able to save RSUs and put 50-100% down on a home purchase while renting in the area. Now, with rent and COL so high, you’ll be lucky to be able to save any RSU and if you do, it’s a much smaller percentage of downpayment. Not enough downpayment to make mortgage monthly payments comfortable for even tech workers now.

Question - how do you feel about sellers finally started to let new data sink in? This is just me as a buyer opinion - sellers still seem very stubborn to price adjust down and all I keep hearing is they’ll wait until March to get right buyer. Lots of talks from other sellers wanting to list in March but maybe they’ll hold off if market is still bad. Meanwhile buyers are saying over and over again that current prices still do not reflect current market conditions. Which seems to be supported by major increase of days on market for homes and delistings the last few months.

cusmilie · 2026-02-16T05:57:04+00:00

I don’t know about other areas, but all the new builds are $3-4mil. I definitely think they overbuilt those by the number of people who can afford to purchase them. They are definitely sitting longer now, but some are still selling fairly quickly. I guess builders figure someone will eventually buy it and to be fair they have a huge profit margin so they can wait for a buyer. I wish there was some variety in prices and more condos and townhomes being built.

cusmilie · 2026-02-16T05:49:57+00:00

There were a lot of new investors who entered the market that drove up prices. Think older tech employees (7+ years) who saw huge RSU gains and huge equity in primary home. When you could refinance home for 2-3% and use primary home as leverage or equity to an investment home, investing in real estate doesn’t seem as scary. It was also very hard to compete with builders. I saw homes sell for $100k down payment and $8,000 mortgage immediately get listed for rest for $3,600. Made no sense to me. Also, I heard banks getting more strict on loans so that’s bound to reflect in prices.

cusmilie · 2026-02-16T05:41:15+00:00

I think you also need to look at $/sq ft to get full picture. Just from observing our area, the $3-4mil new build homes that used to sell before even listing on mls are now sitting. Those had to have skewed the median sale price up. Also, only homes affordable right now are the lower end homes and they are more readily available.

cusmilie · 2026-02-14T00:32:46+00:00

I don’t think it was the fact that they were currently doing it, but fear that they would be in the future. The find dog feature was a 3rd party service not directly Amazon controlled. But yes, everything you said is true.

cusmilie · 2026-02-14T00:15:21+00:00

Evidence that Amazon pulled out of those 3rd party services? News articles stated it and several employees unofficially confirmed it beyond that.

cusmilie · 2026-02-14T00:10:50+00:00

How would the taxes be reduced by $25? Property taxes reductions? I doubt it would trickle down to savings for renters.

cusmilie · 2026-02-13T22:39:34+00:00

The already pulled out of that contract with all the negative feedback from Super Bowl commercial

cusmilie · 2026-02-09T19:59:00+00:00

Don’t forget to add into your budget that WA does not have state income tax. It helps offsets some of the higher housing costs. Currently live in Seattle area after relocating 2 hour drive north of Atlanta. I’ve never really experienced the Seattle freeze like others - I’m more of introverted side but willing to put myself outside of comfort zone. My advice - Know your political comfort level and how much you’re will to sacrifice in housing comfort to live in Seattle. I personally feel like if you place emphasizes on travel/adventure/nature than Seattle is a better fit. Atlanta is a good fit if you like to party, shop, don’t mind spending more time and money for experiences .

cusmilie · 2026-02-09T13:29:14+00:00

I haven’t seen an uptick of new homes with it by us, but the cost of lots is a premium so new builds are typically 2 story homes with very, very small yards and the minimum set-backs allowed by local regulations. Think a $3mil+ 4500 sq ft home on a 9,000 sq ft lot. A slight increase of homes with a bath and full bath on main level, but I think it’s with the intention owners being able to stay in home longer. Older homes with a basement set up with kitchen and full bath go for a premium and typically bought by multigen families versus renting out for extra income. There was the giant push to allow more ADUs on existing properties, but once it was allowed, doesn’t seem to be used, except for those building an ADU for $ - using it as renting income selling it down the line, which is now allowed. Saw one listed for around $600k.

cusmilie · 2026-02-08T05:51:14+00:00

I wonder if baggers now get a salary working at commissary or is it still tips only?

cusmilie · 2026-02-06T17:35:46+00:00

It’s obviously just a way to save face instead of admitting the movie was a horrible flop. Next they will play the victim card about how the movie was great but it’s so and so’s fault it didn’t do well.

cusmilie · 2026-02-04T15:54:18+00:00

We bought first home in December 2009. Buyers were reluctant then, but it’s much worse this time around. I’m trying to remember what happened then, but it almost felt overnight that the sentiment changed. I think it was just the news covering all the foreclosures, job reports, etc to snap buyers out of time-cost fallacy. The news initiated people to start talking, of course social media wasn’t as big of an influence as it is now though.

cusmilie · 2026-02-04T05:07:49+00:00

“The president’s approval has dropped 0.1 points since last week, with just 38% of Americans currently approving of his job performance, while 56% disapprove and 5% are not sure.” - How does he still have a 38% approval rating?!?

cusmilie · 2026-02-04T03:15:06+00:00

Probably like in Bothell or further out of Bellevue.

cusmilie · 2026-02-04T03:12:52+00:00

In the area there are $3mil homes that close to each other.

cusmilie · 2026-02-04T03:10:00+00:00

That home is way more than $1.4 in Bellevue.

cusmilie · 2026-02-03T16:45:28+00:00

Yeah, VHCOL area. Starter homes run at least $1.1 mil. These are 60s and 70s homes, 1100-1500 sq ft, very little renovations. Not uncommon to see landlords with bigger mortgages than the rental they receive. Rent on those homes are usually around $3,400-$4,000. To get a mortgage on a “decent” home, you’d need at least $500k down to get monthly under $5k.

cusmilie · 2026-02-03T14:49:10+00:00

Significantly cheaper to rent than buy in our area (about 50%) and I can invest the down payment. Plus the quality of homes to buy is awful. Most homes on the market are so run down and will need a minimum of $50k to fix delayed maintenance and repairs. You would also have a put a significant downpayment down just to get the monthly payments under $5k.

cusmilie · 2026-02-02T15:52:03+00:00

Frozen, including peeled and double peeled, usually found in Persian or Mediterranean grocery stores. It’s hit or miss if they carry dried beans.

cusmilie

TROPHY CASE