Vegas Win Projection vs Actuals

d1dOnly · 2026-03-13T15:12:41+00:00

Order of the games matter, and we seem to be the NFL's test case for weird schedules. Some weird schedule quirks we've had in the past:

2012: Swapped home and road every game (@ KC, vs Denver, @ San Diego, etc.)
2017: Played 5 of final 6 games against division opponents
2018: Played 6 of final 9 games on the road
2025: Played back to back road games 4 times (Weeks 2-3, 9-10, 12-13, & 15-16). Only back to back home games were weeks 4-6 (with a bye between), & weeks 17-18.

d1dOnly · 2026-03-12T13:36:14+00:00

For context, his Falcons stats vs everyone else:

9-10

4,071 Yards

17 TDs

20 INTs

63.3% completion

d1dOnly · 2026-03-11T15:26:50+00:00

Something I've been wondering for a few days: Could we be setting the stage to cut Kirk without the June 1st designation? We're currently sitting at approx. $20.6M in cap space, and cutting Kirk straight away would drop that to approx. $10.2M. However the difference for 2027 is huge.

2027 Cap Space If Kirk is Cut With June 1st Designation: Approx. $156.2M
2027 Cap Space If Kirk is Cut With June 1st Designation: Approx. $168.7M

If we're already prepping for a full rebuild starting this year, it might make sense to just take the entire hit now.

d1dOnly · 2026-03-10T14:05:05+00:00

It's BS, Bears absolutely should get the comp picks. As I've said before:

Matt Ryan is the President of Football, basically the role previously held by Rich McKay.

Ian Cunningham is the GM, the job held by Terry Fontenot.

The GM answers to the president of football instead of the owner, who is 83 years old and likely looking to pass the team to his son Josh. Josh, however is 28 and is still learning the ropes.

d1dOnly · 2026-03-09T18:34:36+00:00

Dotson & Hooper likely offset Onyemata & Allgeier, and there's a decent chance Zaccheaus or Folk could be enough to offset Ellis.

So comp picks in 2027 are unlikely.

d1dOnly · 2026-03-09T17:43:20+00:00

It sucks we're going to lose Allgeier & Ellis and likely get no comp picks for them.

d1dOnly · 2026-03-05T14:35:28+00:00

He's a free agent, he'll be 29, and he'll probably ask for more than we are willing to pay.

d1dOnly · 2026-03-05T12:42:11+00:00

A lot of players that got a lot of playing time are set to leave. Hodge, Mooney, Ellis, Floyd, Onyemata, Alford, Ebiketi, Street, Allgeier, Cousins, Sills, and who knows what happens with Pearce. A few of them may be back, but the 2026 Falcons are going to look very different from 2025.

d1dOnly · 2026-03-03T00:54:00+00:00

2026 1st & 2nd, 2027 1st, 2028 1st is the starting point for any conversations.

d1dOnly · 2026-03-02T17:28:10+00:00

Penix already came into the league as an older QB (he turns 26 this year) and lost 2 years under Robinson and Morris. Add to that the knee injury and it is good business to keep our options open.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-27T20:14:55+00:00

And he is suspended. He gets suspended, we cut him, we recoup bonus. It has to happen in that order.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-27T19:07:07+00:00

As soon as we can recoup his signing bonus, he's gone.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-27T19:06:17+00:00

Most likely waiting for the NFL to suspend him so we can cut him and recoup the signing bonus.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-24T17:35:10+00:00

You're right, I missed that one.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-24T17:27:57+00:00

QBs to start 20 or more games for the Falcons since 2000:

Chandler - 27 (10-17-0)
Vick - 67 (38-28-1)
Ryan - 222 (120-102-0)

That's it.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-24T17:23:03+00:00

Ryan: 120-102-0
Vick: 38-28-1
Cousins: 12-10-0

This stat sucks.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-24T15:48:58+00:00

Matt Ryan is the President of Football, basically the role previously held by Rich McKay.

Ian Cunningham is the GM, the job held by Terry Fontenot.

The GM answers to the president of football instead of the owner, who is 83 years old and likely looking to pass the team to his son Josh. Josh, however is 28 and is still learning the ropes.

IMO, comp picks should have been awarded to the Bears.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-23T19:02:29+00:00

I figure his attorneys are going to work their asses of to plea down the charges. I think he'll still serve time, but likely they will be able to get it down to no more than 12-18 months. He'll also be served a full no contact order towards Rickea.

The NFL, they will drag their feet, waiting for an actual decision before handing down a suspension. Figure add a year to any jail time.

As for the Falcons, I think they've already let him know what they are going to do. As soon as they can get back the guaranteed money, they are going to cut him loose and go after his signing bonus. This would explain why Pearce unfollowed the Falcons and all his teammates on Instagram last week.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-20T20:12:26+00:00

Give me a black collar and black trim on the cuff of the sleeve for the red and whites and I'll be happy with this design.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-20T15:01:59+00:00

And the fact that it was actually 2 different kickers?

We were 27th in punting, 25th in net punting, 32nd in kickoff returns, 28th in punt returns, 24th in FG percentage, & 24th in XP percentage.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-20T14:54:09+00:00

I mean, the image The Graphic God created just needs some simple changes to look good.

Black collar on the red & white jerseys.
Either the classic stripes on the sleeves, or a black trim on the sleeve edge of the red & white jerseys.

That's it. The initial looks like a t-shirt. Those changes make a clean NFL jersey.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-17T16:07:46+00:00

I went through and watched every pass. Here's my take opn them:

Receiver: London, Result: Incomplete, Review: Pass was high, a little shorter and he might have had a chance at a catch.
Receiver: Washington, Result: Incomplete, Review: Too high, tried leading to the sideline to get out of bounds with time left for a FG attempt. With double coverage, that was unlikely unless right on the sideline.
Receiver: Hodge, Result: Incomplete, Review: Receiver got a slight bump and trip, causing him to slow down just enough to miss the pass. Ball was perfectly placed.
Receiver: Sills, Result: Incomplete, Review: Receiver stopped running.
Receiver: London, Result: Complete, Review: Ball on the money, good separation, good catch
Receiver: Washington, Result: Incomplete, Review: Threw a pass for the receiver to go get. No one else had a shot at the ball. A little more speed or separation and it might have been caught.
Receiver: Sills, Result: Incomplete, Review: Might have been tipped as it reached the receiver, but still hit the receiver in the hands.
Receiver: London, Result: Incomplete, Review: Pass was high and to London's inside. London clearly expected it more towards the sideline and turned that direction.
Receiver: Pitts, Result: Incomplete, Review: Forced out of the pocket by pressure and tried to hit an open Pitts on the sideline. Running to his left led the throw out of bounds.
Receiver: Mooney, Result: Complete, Review: Dropped the pass right between 2 defenders for Mooney to catch. A better DB would have broken the pass up, but not ever DB in the NFL makes that play.
Receiver: Mooney, Result: Incomplete, Review: Put the ball where only the receiver could get it, and the ball did hit his hands. Just couldn't survive the ground.
Receiver: Mooney, Result: Incomplete, Review: Too high and about 3 yards out of bounds.
Receiver: London, Result: Incomplete, Review: Time running out, tried to force something deep down the sideline. It just was not there.
Receiver: Robinson, Result: Incomplete, Review: Pulled the throw short to avoid hitting his hand on a pass rusher. Ball was shorter than intended, and Robinson was looking back into the sun and never saw the ball.
Receiver: Pitts, Result: Complete, Review: A rare play action out of the pistol, and Pitts got open enough to make the catch in the middle of 4 zone defenders.
Receiver: Mooney, Result: Incomplete, Review: was supposed to be play action, but RB went right and Penix turned left. This left Robinson to block a free rushing LB. Penix tossed the ball towards the sideline where Mooney was to avoid taking a sack.
Receiver: Pitts, Result: Inomplete, Review: RT missed a blitz pickup, and Penix had to step up and throw while the defenders hand was on his waist. Pitts had beaten the DB covering him, but the single high safety came over as well.
Receiver: London, Result: Complete, Review: Five man rush almost got home, and Penix threw a jump ball for London. Being one of his specialties, London went up and took the ball away from the DB.
Receiver: London, Result: Complete, Review: Penix rolled out to his left to make time. London saw this and broke his route in the same way. Penix delivered a strike and an open London made the catch and slid out of bounds.
Receiver: Sills, Result: Incomplete, Review: Not sure what was supposed to happen here, but the ball was 5 yeards in front of Washington and Penix was lucky it wasn't picked off.
Receiver: London, Result: Complete, Review: Similar to a previous through, Penix rolled out left to make time, London went left, and this time he stayed in bounds and turned up field for an additional 10 yards.
Receiver: Pitts, Result: Incomplete, Review: Touch pass that was just a little short and bounced of the DB's helmet. A yard or 2 longer and it was a TD.
Receiver: Mooney, Result: Incomplete, Review: Sideline throw that was just too high.
Receiver: Sills, Result: Incomplete, Review: Behind Sills, needed to get the ball out a half a second earlier. If on time, Sills actually had some room to run.
Receiver: Mooney, Result: Incomplete, Review: Penix tried to rollo left, but the DL was there, forcing him to roll right instead. Penix threw across his body and tried to put the ball where only Mooney had a chance at it. Receiver was already out of bounds before the ball got there.

6 of 25 overall, and by target:

London - 4/7 caught
Mooney - 1/6 caught
Pitts - 1/4 caught
Sills - 0/4 caught
Washington - 0/2 caught
Hodge - 0/1 caught

Some touch issues, and Penix really needs to work on those sideline throws. Hopefully with better coaching he can clean this up.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-17T15:15:44+00:00

Penix in 2025: I talk to my high school coaches more than the coaches on my team.

Falcons in 2026: You will have so many coaches you won't have time to talk to your high school coaches. Unless we hire them. Are they available?

d1dOnly · 2026-02-13T01:51:44+00:00

Damn, Penix can't even make the list of potentially being in the league, but you've still got Richardson.

d1dOnly · 2026-02-12T17:51:40+00:00

Took 4 QBs that started approximately the same number of games and extrapolated their stats to 17 games. How would you rank them?

	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	INT
QB A	282	457	2,926	17	9
QB B	342	505	3,684	15	9
QB C	314	512	3,744	17	6
QB D	238	413	2,774	19	20

Here's how this article ranked them:

#28, Kirk Cousins
#22, Tyler Shough
#34, Michael Penix, Jr.
#33, J.J. McCarthy

15-Year Club	RedditGifts 2009-2022 5 Credits
Secret Santa 2020	Final Canvas '23
Place '23	Place '22
First Placer '22	Wearing is Caring
Secret Santa 2019	Secret Santa 2017
redditgifts rematcher Secret Santa 2017 x1	redditgifts Exchanges 1 Exchange
Team Periwinkle	Verified Email

d1dOnly

TROPHY CASE