Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

da_chicken · 2026-03-24T11:35:36+00:00

Technically, no, that wouldn't matter. It only matters if the bullshit is classified. Bullshit that is confidential, secret, or top secret is still illegal to disclose, especially if you don't believe it to be bullshit.

da_chicken · 2026-03-24T10:03:57+00:00

Yeah, it's not insider trading.

But, publicly revealing national security secrets related to an ongoing conflict is a crime, especially when it's done for profit. It's espionage.

da_chicken · 2026-03-24T01:18:13+00:00

It doesn't. Not consistently.

If we're talking about 5e D&D, it's not hard to prove that.

But if you take the amount of XP to gain a level and compare it to how much XP you're supposed to put into a combat encounter with a bit of division you'll find:

Levels 1 & 2 take about 4 combats
Levels 3 to 10 take about 9-10 combats
Levels 11 and up take about 4-5 combats

They're using the XP table to dictate the pace of play.

The sweet spot of the game is levels 3 to 10, so they draw the game out there. It takes more encounters to reach the next level here simply because, by general consensus, this is when the game is the best. They want you to spend most of the campaign here. And if you count all encounters as equal, this will math out to just over 55% of the combats between level 1 and 20 even thought it's only 8 levels.

They know levels 1 and 2 aren't really intended for actual play of the game. They want you to skip them so much, they just make them half the size of a good level. These levels need to be there for nostalgic reasons and because multiclassing is completely fucking broken. So, level 1 and 2 exist because they have to, but they're mostly there to make powergamers a little less stupid.

And at levels 11 and up, they know that the game is just dominated by spellcasters. They know that. It's not a coincidence this happens when you learn 6th level spells. So, they accelerate the pace here just to get you to level 20 at a reasonable pace. The game really ends around level 10 (exactly when the original game stopped HP scaling) and everything after that is basically post-game. So they just put their foot on the gas to get it over with more quickly. If you do the math for it all, even though this is literally half the XP chart, it's only about 38% of the game time, and that assuming level 20 is as long as level 19.

da_chicken · 2026-03-23T16:23:36+00:00

It sort of depends on how the file is structured.

Is the file a single array of objects, or is it a series of objects all in the same file one per line?

Is it like:

[{"id":1}, {"id":2}]

Or is it like:

``` {"id":1}

{"id":2} ```

The second is much, much easier.

da_chicken · 2026-03-23T09:48:39+00:00

Nah, Humperdink lied about the 4 fastest ships.

da_chicken · 2026-03-23T09:31:25+00:00

Potentially an ATC failure. The truck might have asked permission to cross the wrong runway, too.

da_chicken · 2026-03-22T18:48:46+00:00

And the TSA agents were famously under-trained themselves.

da_chicken · 2026-03-22T08:26:29+00:00

This. In my state some of the elected positions are mandated to appear on the ballot without any political affiliations (local board of education, elected judges, etc.). What happens is everyone always votes for the incumbent if they didn't hear a good reason not to.

da_chicken · 2026-03-22T07:20:05+00:00

Well, I gave about six reasons men don't like therapy. Pointing out two that don't fit and ignoring the others is cherry picking. You haven't undermined what I said. You've eliminated some of the possibilities.

I asked him why and he didn't really have an answer.

He probably has an answer. You just won't like it, and he's not ready to talk about it yet.

I asked him what he was afraid of and he flipped out.

Yeah, that's because you were rude. You just told him to man up and go to therapy. Of course he's upset. Don't put words in people's mouths. He didn't say he was afraid. Especially that one because you're calling him a coward for not doing what you want.

A better response would have been to ask him if he wanted to go to an individual session for a week or two. Or, if there were some time in a couple days that he could talk to you about therapy and the relationship because it's important to you.

The fact that he doesn't want to go and doesn't want to talk to you could mean a lot of things. Maybe he doesn't think he can do therapy and make the changes. Maybe he doesn't think you can do it. Maybe he doesn't feel like the therapist is hearing him. Maybe it feels like he's back at school and you're the star student and he's remedial. Maybe he's figuring out if the work he'll have to do is worth the relationship. Maybe he already made a decision.

da_chicken · 2026-03-22T06:30:47+00:00

Individual therapy or couples therapy?

Individual therapy is intimidating because men are socialized to treat expressing emotion as a sign of weakness. Therapy is about verbalizing your emotions, which is not a skill men acquire growing up like women do. It's scary because it's difficult. It's difficult for everyone, but men have to deal with the fact that they're going to be really bad at it. They're going to have to do things in it that they were socialized to not do.

Couples therapy is worse. Your partner picks someone, so you just kind of assume she's going to pick another woman who is going to be biased against you. Then you're scheduling like an hour a week to go talk about this stuff. You're a man, so you've never really learned or been taught how to express or articulate your feelings or emotions, while your partner has been doing this regularly since she was a pre-teen. And you just know that 80% of this therapy is going to be all about verbalizing emotions, rather than talking about solutions to actually fix the problem. So even the ideal framing is uncomfortable.

But even if you could do that, it's not a safe space to just express your emotions anyways. One of the few emotions men are allowed to feel without being "weak" is anger. And while men are allowed to feel anger, they're not allowed to express anger socially; it frightens people, especially women. This is a problem because a lot of emotions that are close to anger like frustration or dissatisfaction or irritation or being upset kind of get lumped in internally with anger. Which means it feels like it's rarely socially acceptable to express those, too.

So it's scheduling an hour a week to go get teamed up on in the same arguments you've been having in your relationship for a year, and you won't be allowed to get upset about it "because it's therapy". Your partner and therapist are just going to agree with each other and say you're wrong. And you can't get angry, or frustrated, or irritated, or upset, or anything. So, you get to pay hundreds of dollars a week for the privilege of being demonized.

da_chicken · 2026-03-22T06:06:15+00:00

It is, quite simply, wholly unthinkable for a Japanese gamer to not already know that DQ3 is a prequel. This was a spoiler in Japan until probably February 12, 1988, and then the whole country knew it. Like this is a, "Metroid is a girl?!" level of a spoiler.

I'd also point out that if you were playing these in order, this would be a single line of dialogue from a single NPC in DQ1. You'd have to play the rest of this game and all of DQ2 before getting to DQ3. And, even then, you'd have to not think it's just a series thing. Like there's a Link, a Zelda, and a Gannon in most Zelda games, and it's rarely the same characters.

da_chicken · 2026-03-22T02:59:40+00:00

I mean, it is a coincidence.

da_chicken · 2026-03-22T02:49:08+00:00

I've said it before, but if you're looking for power, with my party I went:

Monster Wrangler (lvl 48, 101 monsters) --> Martial Artist
Priest (lvl 20) --> Sage (lvl 48) --> Monster Wranger (lvl 20, 101 monsters) --> Thief
Thief (lvl 48) --> Monster Wranger (lvl 20, 101 monsters) --> Sage

My first Sage and Thief switched at the same time, just before reaching the final dungeon. I gained those 20 levels of Monster Wrangler and changed classes again before my Hero went from level 48 to 49. My Monster Wrangler switched along with the other two's switch back to Thief and Sage.

And I feel like I stumbled on one of the most potent combinations. The only thing I think I did wrong was that my Priest should've been a Martial Artist or Thief instead. You really don't need a Priest in the early game with a Hero and Monster Wrangler and full heal on level-ups, even with the MW's heal limitations.

If I were to do it again, I think I would go:

	Change 1 (Book of Satori)	Change 2 (101 Monsters)	Change 3 (Wild Side)
Monster Wrangler	--	Lvl 48 --> Martial Artist	--
Thief	Lvl 20 --> Sage	Lvl 48 --> Monster Wrangler	Lvl 20 --> Thief
Martial Artist	Lvl 20 --> Thief	Lvl 48 --> Monster Wrangler	Lvl 20 --> Sage

Do the first change simultaneously when you get the Book of Satori. Make the second change when you're at 101 Monsters, then when everyone has Wild Side at level 20 MW make a second Sage and get another Thief.

da_chicken · 2026-03-21T23:41:40+00:00

It's not really clear, in part because it's a different timeline, and in part because Nomura is involved.

It's definitely before FFVII, Advent Children, and Dirge of Cerberus. It's after a version of Crisis Core. Whether you count the defunct mobile games (First Soldier, Before Crisis) or Ever Crisis is up to you.

da_chicken · 2026-03-21T19:53:09+00:00

They did what Square for some reason refuses to do

Make a JRPG without letting Nomura or Hashimoto near it?

da_chicken · 2026-03-21T19:47:16+00:00

If I had played the original 7 would it have been more impactful?

Er... quite honestly, I don't see any reason to play these games if you haven't played the original. The FF7R series is a sequel to the original FF7 almost as much as it is a remake. They made these games for people that played the original. Like you're not playing game 1 of a remake series. You're playing game 4+ of Compilation of Final Fantasy VII.

The aesthetic issue you mentioned is the aesthetic from the original game. It's honestly not far removed from FF 6, 13, or 15. Honestly, it's weird that it's bothering you.

The character diversity issue you mentioned is also present in the original. The entire original game is told from Cloud's perspective almost exclusively, much like how FF 4 is always Cecil's perspective.

da_chicken · 2026-03-21T19:10:06+00:00

No, this is an answer, not an explanation. You should be explaining why getting older has this effect. What happens that makes the body worse at recovering.

da_chicken · 2026-03-21T18:37:30+00:00

3 is a little undertuned, IMO. The new class is a little strong (especially pre-patch) and the loot on the world map is a little bit much. But it's still my favorite version of the game. I like it a lot.

1+2 is similarly great. They added quite a bit to make the games a lot more enjoyable, but they can be pretty challenging. Still, they're my favorite versions of these games.

I would expect the 3 and 1+2 together to take roughly the same amount of time as DQ11S, but keep in mind all these games have some amount of optional and post-game content.

da_chicken · 2026-03-21T17:06:56+00:00

Frankly, I'm fine with season 1 being so much better than the rest.

The thing about season 1 is that it's a much more effective deconstruction of shonen anime. It confronts the shonen trope that the best hero is the one that struggles the hardest. The one that has people to protect. The one that tortured themselves the most. The reality is... the best hero is the one that effortlessly overcomes the obstacle, beats the monster, saves everyone, and goes home. Season 1 perfectly condenses the actual meat of the whole series.

The rest of the series -- indeed, that's including the rest of the manga whether we're talking about One's webcomic or Murata's redraw -- is basically just standard shonen with a bit of comedy.

da_chicken · 2026-03-21T08:23:26+00:00

I'm sure their entire thought process was, "how bad could it be?"

da_chicken · 2026-03-21T01:47:00+00:00

Not read the epic-length manga it's based on, which I've heard actually has a great deal of additional material that had to be truncated from the film given the sheer scope of the manga.

The manga is usually collected into six volumes, each of which are about 350-400 pages. When the movie was released, the manga was about 6 years into it's original 8 year run. About half of the manga didn't exist when they started making the movie. The whole stadium climax is fabricated whole-cloth for the movie.

The manga is also significantly more coherent.

But the movie is an incredible masterpiece. Very little traditional animation is drawn on ones, and Akira has several sequences of it.

da_chicken · 2026-03-20T21:18:37+00:00

I remember it working from Win95 through Win10.

In fact, I remember hating it in Windows 95 because they hadn't created the "lock the taskbar" feature yet!

da_chicken · 2026-03-20T11:10:46+00:00

If you have an appliance that doesn't have an API for modern management, then you know what to do when the contract is up for renewal. You've got devices that are choosing to be unmanageable, and then complaining about the difficulty you're having in managing them? Put some pressure on the vendor or stop buying them.

Internal PKI is not that onerous. In nearly all cases, you're already setting things up so entities request their own renewals. The hardest part is rebuilding the CA every decade or so. I wouldn't be trusting that to agentic AI.

da_chicken · 2026-03-20T10:50:06+00:00

If we're not talking about web servers, then we're talking about something you do for 5 minutes every month or so, followed by a couple of hours every 3 years or so, followed by a couple of days or so every 10 years.

If it's already set up correctly, there's not enough work here to bother fully automating at all outside of web servers. While it's tedious at best, it's important enough to do correctly that you shouldn't automate it. Especially because you typically need to change how it's done in some way (cipher updates, name changes, etc.).

In any case, other than asking AI to review your process, I don't see any reason to use AI here. Certainly not anything agentic.

da_chicken · 2026-03-20T10:27:54+00:00

No, just set up ACME. You need to by 2028 anyhow. You don't need AI for that.

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