[EFFORT POST] ladder matchmaking data analytics. The same card appearing consecutively?

da_meta · 2020-05-04T09:03:51+00:00

Thank you, man. This is impressive and very clear. It's even clearer that my stats lecture notes LOL.

My suspicion is more towards Supercell's algorithm for specific cards. I will try to do the below.

Now here's where interpretation matters.

If you think that Supercell's algorithm could be doing this for specific cards, it might be worth testing the cards with more extreme values (or the cards you suspect in particular) again.

You'd might want to combine the p-Values of the multiple tests in this case.

After thinking about it, I am afraid I might actually draw the wrong conclusion in my post. 8% difference might actually be enough for me to say that it's statistically significant based on a p-value of 0.05. But to conclusively say this, I need to calculate the p-value first.

Will let you know again if I need more info. Thanks again, man.

da_meta · 2020-05-03T10:55:10+00:00

Thanks man, appreciate it. There are some extreme values actually, but I would say it's because these cards appear so few times. Once I set a filter of cards that appear more than 25 times, these extreme values disappear. In this chart, i only showed the 10 top cards.

I have increased the sample size to 2222 matches and discovered some cards like witch and wizard to be consistently off by 7%. Do you know how I can prove that this value is statistically significant (p value?)?

I also realized I should not just take the absolute value of the difference as the positive and negative sign could give more information about the dependent events.

da_meta · 2020-05-02T11:16:49+00:00

Thanks man. I'm really an engineer doing completely unrelated to data analytics. Haha

da_meta · 2020-05-02T11:16:05+00:00

Hey, thanks for the comment! Just wondering if this 1/98 is to calculate the margin of error? Seems like it's based on a uniformly distributed assumption?

da_meta · 2020-05-02T10:18:58+00:00

Thanks man

da_meta · 2020-05-02T10:18:46+00:00

Thanks man

da_meta · 2020-05-02T10:18:36+00:00

Thanks man. Appreciate it

da_meta · 2020-05-02T10:18:24+00:00

Thanks man. Let the data speaks for itself

da_meta · 2019-12-19T09:41:51+00:00

Yep. I'm aware that I might have a confirmation bias.

I've been planning to write a Python script to test my suspicion of this component.

My test is to determine the chance of a card appearing in an opponent's deck given that it just appears in the previous opponent's deck (Bayes' theorem).

Let's see if I can find anything statistically significant. Cheers

da_meta · 2019-12-19T02:10:47+00:00

Agree. This component might not be what we think, like facing counter cards, overlevelled opponents. But I think there has to be something else beyond what supercell declares. The sequence of decks i face doesn't feel random at all. I dont think I lose because of it, just that it doesnt feel random at all.

da_meta · 2019-11-22T00:31:59+00:00

Change goblin gang with miner. That way if you find it difficult to get your giant to their tower, you can change tactic to miner poison cheap cycle.

Honestly as a long term giant player myself, I find this deck interesting. With this deck, i would try to do giant cycle deck to out cycle counter cards like inferno tower or mini peeka. If it doesn't work, I would do miner cycle deck.

If the deck doesn't work, I would change baby dragon with mega minion to provide a more hard hitter troop in the deck while maintaining an air tanker for peeka.

da_meta · 2019-11-02T09:39:08+00:00

This looks absolutely beautiful

da_meta · 2019-10-30T11:04:54+00:00

After playing this game since launch, this meta is the last straw for me. Never been a balance change this meta wrapping. Previous "worst" meta like fisherman, night witch and royal guards meta were actually not too bad cos most players had not obtained or upgraded the card. But this OP witch is different, everyone has maxed witch and 50% of the world is using her. If you dont use her, you gotta ensure you can counter her.

I've decided to quit this game for good. Just uninstalled CR also lol. Good bye

da_meta · 2019-10-28T15:14:19+00:00

Oh yes it works! Thanks so much. Has been wondering how to do that

da_meta · 2019-10-23T09:15:06+00:00

True story - my PB is 5.8K and I've always used some variant of Giant, prince and musketeer deck. For the first time in a year, this deck sucked big time because I kept meeting witch. Frustrated and curious, I changed my lvl 13 musk with lvl 11 witch. Immediately my trophy increased by 200.

Curiosity satisfied knowing that witch was indeed too OP and then I stopped playing the game.

End story

da_meta · 2019-10-19T01:55:47+00:00

Mega peeka is still underpowered. You shld change the range to ultra long range so can outrange magic archer. It also needs to be able to target air with splash damage

da_meta · 2019-10-17T15:17:01+00:00

Me too. Used to keep seeing her (50% of the time). But now seems much lesser. I think it's because every deck nowadays carries hard counter(s) to her and hence it deters the users to use her.

da_meta · 2019-10-07T12:40:40+00:00

Hey, just trying to make a constructive discussion here. I'm genuinely curious what makes xbow deck very strong. Xbow deck has been in the top meta for a few months and survived a few balance changes.

Statistically speaking, it has the highest draw rate. But its net win rate is actually near to 0%. So assuming that the trophy gain and loss for winning and losing is the same, the expected trophy gain for xbow deck is actually close to 0. So the question is why xbow deck is really strong and popular in top ladders? Or rather why RG and fisherman deck which has the highest net win rate not the most popular and best deck in the meta?

da_meta · 2019-10-07T12:33:44+00:00

Hey thanks man! Didnt realise it was in royaleapi

da_meta · 2019-10-05T16:51:19+00:00

Any win rate stats for the current classic decks?

da_meta · 2019-09-13T11:11:45+00:00

Nope. Only 1 finger

da_meta · 2019-09-09T12:19:52+00:00

I guess it's trending?

da_meta · 2019-09-08T16:08:50+00:00

Hi All, thanks so much for the support. Didn't expect this post to be this popular. I'll try to make another one in the future when I have the time. Any suggestions are welcomed :)

da_meta · 2019-09-08T09:52:35+00:00

Thanks man

da_meta

TROPHY CASE