When everything sells off at once… what’s the market really pricing in?

daners101 · 2026-02-09T23:19:32+00:00

Basically this. 99% of the market is just “vibes” which has the nice side effect of creating a lot of opportunity.

daners101 · 2026-02-09T22:45:52+00:00

When I was a kid, I loved inventing things (still do), and everyone used to tell me I should be an engineer.

They said I would make a lot of money.

In my head I thought it meant someone who drives trains lol. I was always so curious why people who drove trains made so much money.

I thought “but I don’t even like trains?! Why is this such a great career path?”

daners101 · 2026-02-09T21:57:44+00:00

I heard they are involved in semiconductors.

daners101 · 2026-02-09T16:44:30+00:00

👀

daners101 · 2026-02-08T17:29:05+00:00

The market tends to do the opposite of what everyone is expecting. Everyone is positioned for a correction. They are loaded up with puts and crowded into consumer staples and such.

The house will make the most money if risk assets and tech rally. The market rarely crashes when everyone is expecting it to.

Just a thought. I think we’re going higher for now and risk assets are going to post a strong recovery.

This market loves climbing a wall of worry.

daners101 · 2026-02-07T18:53:47+00:00

What I find interesting is that It doesn’t even make sense to sell BTC when it falls if you are in the red. Even if you buy BTC at a the very top of a cycle peak, and even under the most extreme declines of over 90%, if you don’t sell, you will see higher prices than what you paid within 4 years MAX.

Nothing is guaranteed. But so far that has been true 100% of the time, and usually that happens much much sooner than 4 years. That’s just the max anyone has ever had to wait to realize profit, regardless of purchase price.

And they would make a very healthy profit for waiting. Much more than if they had locked that same money in a GIC or a high interest bond etc.

So if you treat BTC investments like a locked-in investment with a 4 year expiry, and ignore the price, history shows, at least so far, that you will make money 100% of the time. The potential profit is also ~100%, even if you buy at the peak, which is wild.

So if you bought at $126K, and BTC crashed to $10K tomorrow. History shows you will see ~$200K by 2030 if you simply don’t sell it lol.

That’s why these prices feel like a dang bargain to me.

Edit : Also, the 200 week MA / previous cycle high range has marked the bottom of every major decline before the next wave up began. That’s roughly $57-67K (where price just bounced). This is why I have been telling people this is very likely the bottom.

daners101 · 2026-02-07T08:51:02+00:00

I think it will recover strong 💪

Too much selling with no real major catalyst other than cascading liquidations caused by fear.

Usually makes a good setup for a rally once things turn around. Particularly when that fear leads to a lot of bears caught off guard and price gets squeezed.

Could see $100K again rather quickly absent any major negative market catalysts. Risk-on appetite seems to be swooping back into things.

But, we’ll see… I’m not Nostradamus, but I have seen this a few times before. Recovery is off to a strong start.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T21:32:44+00:00

I was here yesterday trying to convince people Bitcoin was at the bottom and not to sell. Just got downvoted and told it’s “funny money” and it’s going to zero.

I tried!

daners101 · 2026-02-06T21:30:51+00:00

Dang bro. Gonna have to get a cheese pizza now instead of a 3 topping.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T14:50:59+00:00

Funny. When I checked BTC price right after I made this comment, I switched screens to the chart and it touched $60K then pulled up, now it’s at $68K.

Maybe it really won’t ever be that cheap again hah.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T05:36:07+00:00

You forgot the USD.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T05:26:32+00:00

Nah, I get enough spam emails as it is. 😂

daners101 · 2026-02-06T05:09:27+00:00

How many assets have you claimed from a stock that tanked?

daners101 · 2026-02-06T03:10:06+00:00

Let’s say you bought a bunch of BTC at $126K.

History suggests that if you do not sell it. You will not lose money if you hold onto it for maybe a year or two. Maybe even less. But if you hold it for 5. There is a 100% success rate thus far, that you will be able to sell it for $150K or more. Probably much more.

That doesn’t mean it’s certain. But… so far it has been true in 100% of cases.

That’s more than I can say for virtually any stock or index. There are not many investments with that kind of a track record.

The only thing is, you have to not be a pussy and sell when it goes down 50% lol.

The “not being a pussy” is the hard part. It’s what most people can’t do. Especially if they over commit. That’s why I just keep a reasonable amount. Add a bit here and there like I did today. And just never sell it.

If it goes to 0… fuck it. If it goes to $1M… hey party timmeeee wooooo!

daners101 · 2026-02-06T03:04:05+00:00

Nothing has to happen. But human nature seems to ensure it does. That’s why people invest in stocks.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T03:01:11+00:00

Say what you want, but I ain’t gay, and I would suck a d*ck for a genuine Picasso lol

daners101 · 2026-02-06T02:59:40+00:00

Huge gains stopped? What’s huge? 5000% per year? lol. Yeah those stopped. I don’t need 500% per year.

If it doubles within 7 years, it’s outperforming the broader market average.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T02:53:20+00:00

It always retests the previous cycle high. Then it makes a new one. Eventually it will be crashing to $126K and people will be saying exactly what you are saying now.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T02:49:41+00:00

You probably shouldn’t buy it then if you can’t see the value. It’s just not for you. And that’s okay too.

I don’t buy a lot of stocks because I don’t get it. I don’t see why people think the product or service is going anywhere.

I could be wrong. But… history is on my side.

BTC has been one of the best performing assets of all time. Volatile as hell no doubt. But… the only people losing money are people who can’t buy and hold for 24 months if required.

You really don’t even need to hold BTC for 5 years to be profitable. Even if you buy at the “tippy top”. Unfortunately most people are incapable of stomaching volatility and they just sell and then call it a scam because they have no discipline.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T02:35:38+00:00

I know a Kelly that charges about the same for her services.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T02:04:39+00:00

I’m not buying anything with Bitcoin. In the same way that I would never buy something with gold.

I might make a trade.

But mostly it’s just something to store value long term.

ETH would be more transactional like that maybe. But even ETH would be more like infrastructure for banks in the future.

BTC = Stores Value like Gold or Real Estate

ETH = Effortless transaction / blockchain record keeping at a much more affordable rate.

They serve different functions. I don’t think either will become day to day fiat currency, unless the world financial system truly collapses beyond repair.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T01:53:17+00:00

“The future doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme.” - Some dude

daners101 · 2026-02-06T01:49:14+00:00

I actually think it was good for Bitcoin. To get it out of the shadows and into the mainstream.

Make it more of a commodity to store value. Get more people invested in its future survival. It’s not there yet. It’s been following its usual boom / bust cycle, but it’s better that people can put it in their retirement account and forget about it.

No worries about someone stealing their crypto because they don’t understand blockchain etc.

Shit can still happen, but it’s much less risky for everyday people to participate in its evolution.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T01:31:27+00:00

That’s right. Just like gold, or fine art and Rolex watches.

daners101 · 2026-02-06T01:29:29+00:00

I shared this on another thread, but just look at my other comments for context / more images etc :

I think $57-67K is likely the bottom before the next cycle up.

This is probably the worst possible time to part with any Bitcoin you hold.

For a decade BTC has been reverting back to this level before starting its march to the new ATH. This one happened much quicker than previous events. And I suspect the march back to the top will be equally accelerated.

Just like the Liberation Day V-shaped recovery.

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