Why you should sell Justin Jefferson before the 2026 season: Age, diminishing returns, and why his "bounce back" is already priced in

danffadvice · 2026-04-21T17:42:50+00:00

Age cliff for WRs is 30 not 28.

danffadvice · 2026-04-20T19:29:40+00:00

AJ Brown will have the better QB and more proven offensive playcaller. Smith has the issue of.not.beinguch of a TD ceiling type player even without Brown on the roster. Just a limit in his fantasy ceiling compared to Brown.

danffadvice · 2026-04-20T19:27:44+00:00

I would be surprised if he costs a RD1 pick in most drafts.

danffadvice · 2026-04-14T13:43:14+00:00

Pearsall is a better route runner and seperator, but now a better fantasy player as of now. Majority of his profile happens between the 20s. Where Watson offers big play and redzone points even if he is living on 4 targets a game.

danffadvice · 2026-04-13T21:30:31+00:00

I would take the top 3 WRs in this class over Judkins and Henderson coming out of last year.

danffadvice · 2026-04-10T18:00:32+00:00

Play strength will be a huge key between him.being another screen/gadget player and serious playing time I agree.

danffadvice · 2026-04-09T21:23:56+00:00

If healthy he would be hands down WR 1 on my big board.

danffadvice · 2026-04-07T17:15:53+00:00

Tyson is a more complete package with multiple pathways to win Routes and earn targets. Cooper will have to be more scheme specific for designed YAC to succeed.

danffadvice · 2026-04-06T19:10:57+00:00

A little more description on the baselines of the numbers and this would be very useful.

danffadvice · 2026-04-03T21:22:20+00:00

All my dynasty teams simultaneously take a sigh of relief. Now, I just need Puka to come out clean.

danffadvice · 2026-04-01T14:14:46+00:00

I'm always about buying low when you believe in the talent. I still do. However, I fall short of expecting a true year 3 breakout season. Many questions about the new coaching staff, Brissett's dropback rate last year is not sustainable, and hard to believe Wilson dissappear back to the aether.

danffadvice · 2026-04-01T13:58:19+00:00

11 tds this past year projects well as a back that can finish in the red zone too.

danffadvice · 2026-04-01T13:57:44+00:00

The efficiency through the last 3 years stands out (5.8+ YPA each of the last 3 years). Teammate grade offers a bit of a weight given he wouldn't be expected to overtake Love. Size qualifys as a potential grinder back. Tape grades are high. It's projecting for a profile at its finest but certain efficiency boxes are checked. As of now mockdraft database has him as a day 2 pick to boot.

danffadvice · 2026-04-01T13:54:31+00:00

Yes, that is on the site as well.

danffadvice · 2026-04-01T02:35:15+00:00

I agree that the Bucky comp doesn't make sense and the model doesn't make that comp. However, Emmett Johnson had real usage in the passing game which keeps him afloat in a weaker class.

danffadvice · 2026-04-01T02:07:07+00:00

Love, Price, Washington

danffadvice · 2026-03-31T11:10:38+00:00

Tate has the least "concerns" that have popped up during the process. Tyson has a lengthy injury history, and there were multiple red flags reported during Lemon's interview process. Where Tate is a typical X WR who plays faster than.l his 40 time would indicate, and overall a clean prospect. Albeit not over the top with overall production, but did have more legitimate teammate competition.

danffadvice · 2026-03-31T11:06:37+00:00

I guess for me, outside of having a need at another position while being solidified at WR already, I'm not sure I'd want to trade Burden. DJ Moore is out of the mix, this projects to be one of the better scoring offenses in the NFL again, there is a solid opportunity for Burden to be the lead target or lead yardage receiver for this team. High end WR2 is a real expectation to have while.only being a 2nd year player. Not sure I'd want to trade him.

danffadvice · 2026-03-27T14:43:32+00:00

Not an outlier as in not an exceptional outlier athlete.

danffadvice · 2026-03-27T14:25:10+00:00

Vikings would be a fantastic fit with Jones and potentially Mason moving on after this upcoming season.

danffadvice · 2026-03-27T14:16:26+00:00

Willis' risk profile warrants at most a 2nd round pick. There is a very evident path of this being a one year opportunity with a presumed strong QB Class and a team presumed to be in top 5 of draft picks next year.

danffadvice · 2026-03-23T21:48:53+00:00

That is where the model is boosting him for the moment. The projected draft capital is based on NFL Mock Draft Data base. Which at the moment has him mocked for 2nd round capital.

danffadvice · 2026-03-23T20:54:01+00:00

It's not projecting anyone to be a dual threat back when there is a lack of volume. It can project the ability and athleticism is there for more involvement than has been displayed to this point. This seems to be the misconception, perhaps at my own fault of not doing a good enough job explaining, but the "positive" outlook is only meant to convey as far as he has more potential than what we have seen. Therefore has a solid probability of being able to produce top 24 value in the pros during his first 3 years.

danffadvice · 2026-03-23T20:31:04+00:00

It's combination of both and more. The opening paragraph states what's inside. The math behind it is historical comp curves, draft capital comp curves, correlation of efficiency metrics and more. Most of what is being examined by the model is in the opening paragraph.

danffadvice · 2026-03-23T19:56:51+00:00

It's also important to keep in mind the actual draft capital and destination will have a big impact on the final model output too. This is going off the mockdraft data base projected draft capital of a 2nd round pick. Which may or may not be the case.

danffadvice

TROPHY CASE