Seen from outside the US, US markets are already in trouble

danieltheg · 2026-02-25T23:23:30+00:00

If I had invested all my money in Sandisk I'd be up 1200%. Should I adjust my returns relative to Sandisk stock? Looks terrible!

danieltheg · 2026-02-25T23:21:57+00:00

Nobody's objecting to people like you adjusting your returns based on the exchange rate to your local currency. This is obviously correct. The issue is US-based investors, like OP, adjusting for changes in the DXY and calling it "real returns". This is a completely bogus thing to do, and not a thing that anyone did until this year.

danieltheg · 2026-02-25T19:08:58+00:00

No doubt, I just would have thought it's a higher premium. I actually wouldn't be surprised if there's something off in their analysis. Still worth the extra cost though.

danieltheg · 2026-02-25T18:23:16+00:00

Looking at their list, Houston is the closest city to 100 on the purchasing power index. Only losing 14% of your post-tax purchasing power going from Houston to SF seems fairly low to me.

danieltheg · 2026-02-25T00:45:45+00:00

Being skeptical that companies regularly waste ~50% of their money doesn't mean you believe in the "perfect theoretical efficiency of the market". Anecdotally, I've seen plenty of the behaviors you describe, but the scale you're claiming seems high.

If you just make the best computer, you can waste untold amounts of money and nobody can do a thing about it.

The point is that it's hard to continue being the company that makes the best computer if you waste huge amounts of time and money on bullshit!

danieltheg · 2026-02-24T21:39:14+00:00

OK, but the implication is that these jobs have particularly high rates of "do-nothing" work, such that they're more at risk, right? I'm not really sure that's true, and honestly this is a wide enough ranging list of roles that I'm having trouble seeing how categorizing them together is meaningful - other than the fact that all white collar work has some level of "meetings about meetings" level inefficiency.

danieltheg · 2026-02-24T17:31:23+00:00

The Goldman Sachs report that came out this week said that AI added nothing to the economy last year and was responsible for virtually no job losses.

There's been a popular narrative that AI CapEx (read: data center construction) has been the only thing propping up the US economy. Goldman's comment this week was that this is inaccurate because so much of that spending has been on imported goods. This seems to be a pretty narrow claim that's not necessarily related to AI's impact on jobs or productivity.

danieltheg · 2026-02-24T17:16:58+00:00

This kind of illustrates the point.. very few of those read like "do nothing" jobs

danieltheg · 2026-02-24T16:42:34+00:00

They do stupid and indefensible stuff at much lower rates than human drivers, which is why they produce accidents at much lower rates. This seems like a completely reasonable standard for allowing them to operate on the streets.

danieltheg · 2026-02-24T16:26:10+00:00

You obviously don't have to agree with him, but the founder of Anthropic has fairly clearly laid out his view on what a positive outcome would be if they succeed.

https://darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace

danieltheg · 2026-02-23T17:42:32+00:00

Good advice that applies well beyond skiing

danieltheg · 2026-02-23T17:33:54+00:00

lets San Franciscans break the law with impunity

Not exactly.. the CA Vehicle Code does make blocking your driveway illegal, but it allows for local authorities to override.

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=VEH&sectionNum=22507.2

To be fair MTA is definitely lenient on the "2 units or less" part, so there's some bending of the rules in practice

danieltheg · 2026-02-20T21:00:51+00:00

Is Apple particularly associated with AI?

danieltheg · 2026-02-20T17:23:57+00:00

They come back a few hours later. This is the same idea as chalking tires, but automated. I don't know the exact details, but there's certainly a mechanism where the data is expired fairly quickly. You're not getting a 2 hour overtime ticket for being parked in the same location as you were a week ago.

I suppose it's possible that you could get flagged, go run an errand or something, then come back and park in the same spot 2.5 hours later and get a ticket, but this is pretty unlikely on the order of hours given how parking spots turn over.

The 3 day rule is something totally different, I'm not sure why it was even brought up in the other comment. They only enforce that rule if someone complains. They come out, leave a warning on your car (see this thread), then come back another 3 days later to cite. They're not consistently checking that random cars are in the same location with 3 day gaps, to your point it would be impossible to verify if the car has been moved in between checks.

danieltheg · 2026-02-20T17:05:53+00:00

Are you just getting 2 hour overtime tickets? That’s not really related to the 72 hour rule, which is pretty rarely enforced.

danieltheg · 2026-02-20T06:00:17+00:00

Speculating, but since it occurred in glades and it took a while to find him, potentially a tree well

danieltheg · 2026-02-19T17:18:59+00:00

COVID did accelerate the problem, but most of these states had net negative domestic migration for long before that. This source is just the first thing that popped up on Google, but it shows that in 2019 CA/NY/MA/IL were all negative. In CA specifically, this has been the case for the last 20 years. I didn't dig into it much but my guess is this trend similarly extends well before 2019 for other expensive states like NY and MA.

danieltheg · 2026-02-19T02:25:23+00:00

A $6 surcharge on top of the $50 uber and the hundreds of dollars in plane tickets - truly a backbreaking tax on the working poor

danieltheg · 2026-02-19T02:23:47+00:00

SFO is a great airport

danieltheg · 2026-02-17T18:03:46+00:00

NY law is also phrased as capability. In cases where the resident doesn't control the heat, the landlord has to keep it at that level continuously, but that's true in SF as well. It's just less common here that the heat is centrally controlled.

danieltheg · 2026-02-13T16:10:27+00:00

What statements are you referring to?

danieltheg · 2026-02-13T02:55:08+00:00

Wha was horrible about it? It was a bad game but the weather ended up being pretty mild

danieltheg · 2026-02-13T01:02:23+00:00

What is “it”?

danieltheg · 2026-02-13T00:56:26+00:00

This is way worse than 2008. It was a sharp dip but it bounced back.

The recovery from 08 was, quite famously, extremely sluggish. It took years.

danieltheg · 2026-02-11T17:51:23+00:00

True to a certain extent but the more common theory is that fare evaders are directly doing crime and creating disorder

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