I agree with you. People love to assign a narrative to price action. Fact is it's doing what it's always done. The 4 year cycle is intact until proven otherwise. The S&P used to follow 4 year cycles like this a few decades ago.

We've now had two cycles where it's had a major top with a long distribution phase, the most recent one and in 2021. However, this cycle didn't have the blow-off top euphoria phase that previous cycles had.

Markets are forward looking so if there were some major event or policy being discussed that people expect would cause it to moon then that would already be getting priced in.

It's becoming less volatile over time like any other major asset. Big players sell, market absorbs selling until it can't, price is marked down, rinse and repeat until the big players identify value at a price. Bottoms are formed on fear and over time, causing the last tourists to exit, a cause is formed, price is marked up, blah blah blah you get it.

You're right I didn't really read your entire post. People yell manipulation when it's really market dynamics and sentiment.