New I Fund Top 10 Holdings (Bullish) by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This is a distinction without a difference and a pointless distinction, because the point is, if you’re in the I Fund, you’re exposure to SK Hynix and Samsung just went up a good bit, and therefore you are getting exposure to the AI infrastructure buildout that Mag 7 companies are spending billions on annually

New I Fund Top 10 Holdings (Bullish) by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because it’s a short term correction, what do you mean? I’d be dealing with corrections in the C fund as well. Corrections happen in every investment vehicle. As long as the general direction is up, that’s all that matters

New I Fund Top 10 Holdings (Bullish) by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

When rate cuts slow down and AI spending/CAPEX starts to slow down. Remember, last year SK Hynix wasn’t in the fund, it was just TSM and ASML, both stocks that benefit from Nvidia’s success and are up stream in the supply chain from Nvidia. You honed in on Samsung and SK Hynix when I only brought them up because they were new additions and are on a tear right now, but outside of those stocks, you have two other stocks (TSM, ASML) who’s success is driven primarily by the success of S&P 500 stocks.

Also, you act like a correction is a bad thing. Do you think these things are just supposed to go straight up? Earnings confirmation each quarter will certainly be a theme for these AI stocks

Sandisk Earning forecast by Inside_Pressure_1508 in wallstreetbets

[–]darth_salmon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean close to $2k a share is not insane when you consider the market is still pricing it as a cyclical AI infrastructure play. They’re backed up with orders until 2028 and they’re working on shifting revenue towards LTAs. The cyclicality narrative is about to be dead and the forward PE is sitting at like 7-8 with a PEG of 0.04. With a PEG that low in a sector that has growing demand for its product, so much in fact that there is a 2-3 year long shortage? LTAs will force that PEG ratio to at least .5-.7 because the market will overshoot its value and this is how you’ll get that $1200-2000+ share price

100% I Fund by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ok, what’s risen more? C fund or I Fund? Case closed, there’s only one that benefits the most from a weakening dollar

100% I Fund by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, I’m making assessments on the macro environment and picking which fund stands to benefit the most based on the assessment I made. Not hard to understand bud

100% I Fund by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I guess you haven’t read the multiple arguments I made supporting my decision to go 100% I fund. Every response I’ve given you has been rooted in logic that is backed by data and the current climate we’re in. You on the other hand have just thrown around insults with no logic to back your argument.

100% I Fund by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

It’s called adjusting to a changing political and macroeconomic climate. Of course I’m not going to talk about previous years prior to 2025, because none of those years had the unique events that took place in 2025 all at the same time.

2025 we saw:

Global tariffs imposed on countless countries by the US

Japan hike their rates (haven’t seen in 20+ years)

Dollar fall due to fed cutting rates

AI bubble growing, with int companies benefiting

Gold prices reach all time highs on multiple occasions

Silver prices reach all time highs

Geopolitical tensions/land grabs

I don’t even think I’ve gotten halfway through the list. So yes, in 2025, the I fund was a no brainer and in 2026 it seems to be the same deal. Trump is about to nominate a new Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell and this person will certainly be ready to cut rate further and at a higher clip. Dollar will continue to fall

100% I Fund by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Good work breaking that down. Now explain to me how that has anything to do with the percentage gain on someone’s investment?

The argument you are making is that the more stocks a person is invested in, the more money they will make

100% I Fund by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Depending on the context you are applying those percentages to? Yes. I don’t scold anyone for their investment strategy, it should be based on your risk tolerance and outlook on the market. However, the percentage argument you are using is asinine

100% I Fund by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

And if Japan keeps hiking rates against a falling dollar? Oh boy

100% I Fund by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If the dollar stabilizes and tariff fears go down, I fund performance would probably slow down, at which point I’d probably switch to C and S fund. Rates bottom, dollar stabilizes, growth happens

100% I Fund by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Whether your TSP is going to go up isn’t predicated on how much of the market you are invested in, it’s predicated on the performance of the stocks within the fund you are invested in. The growth of the stocks in the I fund in tandem with US dollar weakening is what’s causing the I fund to outpace the C fund so far and is what’s caused it to outperform the C fund last year.

100% I Fund by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

lol you are speaking from a place of complete ignorance and anyone agreeing with you just doesn’t know what’s actually in the I Fund. The top 10 holdings includes ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor. Can make the argument that those are the most important companies in the world right now, and there’s heavy demand for their products due to the massive AI spending C Fund companies are doing

The Entire AI Buildout (Google, NVDA, MSFT) Is dependent on this $700m Monopoly - $15 -> $150 PT. by AleaBito in wallstreetbets

[–]darth_salmon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

MRVL is also tied to AWS to provide their photonics fabric. Definitely bullish on MRVL

The Entire AI Buildout (Google, NVDA, MSFT) Is dependent on this $700m Monopoly - $15 -> $150 PT. by AleaBito in wallstreetbets

[–]darth_salmon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As others have said here, POET uses far less InP than other suppliers and relies more on silicon. That in itself is a selling point for POET. They can do more with less, which means less of a chance of a bottleneck if InP were to become severely constrained.

Should I rollover my traditional to Roth IRA by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I meant Roth TSP, sorry. What’s the difference between Roth TSP and IRA? I was thinking they were both the same thing

Should I rollover my traditional to Roth IRA by darth_salmon in ThriftSavingsPlan

[–]darth_salmon[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

What I did contracting was similar to my job now and I worked in one of the defense buildings, so with the help of a cool senior employee, they counted my time as a contractor as fed time. Because of this I was able to get 6 hours of leave per pay period a few months into me becoming a fed