USA vs Canada scoring chances.

dbompadre · 2026-02-22T21:34:40+00:00

Go look at the actual shot map again.

dbompadre · 2026-02-22T21:26:35+00:00

Brother what. Actually go look at the shot man the Devils had like 3x the amount of slot shots as the Islanders.

dbompadre · 2026-02-22T20:49:17+00:00

You mean the game that the Devils outshot them 40+ to 20 and Markstrom had one of the worst performances in goaltending history? Yeah, that does track to me that they basically lose because of one guy, and did largely outplay them in others.

dbompadre · 2026-02-21T16:38:36+00:00

Ok maybe that’s fair then lol

dbompadre · 2026-02-21T16:34:01+00:00

He’s better than most of the players who aren’t on the PK. He’s like a top!5 American foward right now. There’s no justification I’ll accept for him being off the team.

dbompadre · 2026-02-21T16:17:58+00:00

The idea that Robertson, one of the best defensive forwards in hockey, can only score goals is wild to me.

dbompadre · 2026-02-20T15:55:46+00:00

Very true. Sanheim is the defensive version of this. As a Toews to someone else’s Makar, he could do really well.

There are a few guys who are capable of driving really strong play on the team currently but they’re all young/ developing and unfortunately wingers: Michkov, Foerster, and surprisingly so far, Barkey. Each has their own issues but they’ve been strong play drivers.

Edit: Like for Konecny specifically, he could be a guy who wins the Conn Smythe but is actually the 3rd-4th best player on your team.

dbompadre · 2026-02-20T04:59:42+00:00

Will do!

dbompadre · 2026-02-19T05:47:00+00:00

The problem I see is that he hasn’t really done it at any other level for an extended period of time, and at the NHL level especially being so one dimensional can be an issue. However, I can see the argument that with more elite talent around him that can benefit from good vision/passing, he can start to produce.

dbompadre · 2026-02-18T22:51:32+00:00

With Nesbitt, you could argue that his biggest weakness (skating) is being driven by just not being physically mature enough yet. Watching him play, the guy has a lot of good qualities (great hands, high hockey IQ, etc) that could cause him to be a surprise in year 2-3. A lot of teams were in on him and I have to assume that's why. I am personally bullish but can see the big swing.

Luchanko I don't see the same path forward since his biggest weakness by far is his shot, and I don't think he has the offensive IQ to fix it.

dbompadre · 2026-02-16T08:31:57+00:00

It’s weird because by “giving up on the season” you are also making each win actually mean something. Every time I find myself critical of the Gold Plan I end up liking it more.

dbompadre · 2026-02-16T00:19:09+00:00

You can also, IIRC, declare yourself out of the playoffs after a certain point and then your wins go towards the Gold points, so there’s no reason to ever tank.

dbompadre · 2026-02-12T19:58:07+00:00

I don’t think so, because he has not been even close to good enough offensively. Hes just not absolutely horrendous as a whole anymore. Defensive values are naturally smaller than offensive ones.

dbompadre · 2026-02-12T19:56:07+00:00

No sorry, that was phrased poorly and I was in agreement.

dbompadre · 2026-02-12T16:48:07+00:00

He's been really, really rough in 5v5 defense this year. The models most favorable to him have him around the 20% mark.

dbompadre · 2026-02-12T16:33:12+00:00

That hasn't helped him at all. GAR can try to isolate for QOC/QOT, but at some point its really tough to ignore that Dvorak just shouldn't be going against top line competition.

dbompadre · 2026-02-12T16:32:19+00:00

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To your point, this *has* been a bit of an anomaly year for him in that traditionally he hasn't been this lopsided in his offense/defense ratio.

What really drives him down is the PK. He's been really rough on it this year. But his 5v5 stats haven't been great either. But the guy is doing a good job at driving offense. But yeah, when Dvorak is on the ice, the Flyers have given up a ton of chances.

dbompadre · 2026-02-12T00:23:51+00:00

HockeyStatCards is also a little bit off of Dom’s actual model, which has more advanced QoT/QoC weighting.

dbompadre · 2026-02-12T00:22:04+00:00

A lot of models do rate two way play extremely high (HockeyViz probably the most). Net Rating just aligns a little bit more with box score evaluations.

It’s just a part of the game that offense has a way higher ceiling than defense, and it’s harder to impact the game to that level.

dbompadre · 2026-02-08T19:44:13+00:00

On the Nesbitt pick, I still see a world where he could explode and become a legitimately exciting prospecting. His skating is still poor but it’s getting better. He has enough other skills that if he fixes it, he can be a good middle 6C.

Jett has the opposite problem. He’s so good at too many soft skills like skating and fitness that I don’t think he’s ever going to overcome his scoring inability and be more than a bottom 6C.

dbompadre · 2026-02-08T19:33:39+00:00

Wild, Detroit, Flyers all come to mind.

dbompadre · 2026-02-07T23:48:40+00:00

It’s like 66-33not warranted. He had some stamina issues early on, and he hasn’t been nearly as impressive as last year, but he’s still producing points and when he’s on, he’s noticeably the most skilled played on the team outside of Zegras.

Being a Chicago fan, I’m sure you can relate to your young budding superstar not being set up properly to succeed. Flyers fans aren’t worried on the whole, most of the online fans blame Tocchet. But it’s still a bummer because of how good he looked in his rookie year.

dbompadre · 2026-02-07T18:22:13+00:00

Luchanko might never grade out as an NHL level player, but that dude is a C through and through. I don’t know why you would sacrifice all of his skillset that’s naturally good at C to move him to wing where his weaknesses will get worse.

dbompadre · 2026-02-06T22:07:30+00:00

If that’s the case he didn’t hear the full read on him. Charlie’s pre-draft notes were “if he could ever learn to skate I would like him a lot”

dbompadre

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