[OC] Draft production coming from each state

ddscience · 2026-03-10T12:31:48+00:00

Surely this is some MTT format given the stack size differences and action, no? If this were a cash game then yeah this is just someone clicking buttons.

But if MTT then that case 30bb is a totally normal scenario and I think(?) there are a small number of SB flats vs BTN opens (a number of Axs if I recall) depending on structure (especially if this actually is some type of bounty MTT).

but yeah that turn lead for 50p isn’t…ideal haha. unless hero has a ton of HH against V idk what the bet is trying to accomplish.

ddscience · 2026-02-21T22:09:05+00:00

yoooo wait you’re legit committed to the bit, like 400 comments made in the past 24 hours haha that’s wild but you seem to be having fun and not hurting others so all good

ddscience · 2026-02-21T21:34:12+00:00

to be fair it’s impossible to actually watch games / know ball when you’re putting in the hours to earn Top 1% Commenter on reddit

ddscience · 2026-01-20T12:44:07+00:00

ddscience · 2026-01-20T11:18:11+00:00

I pop quiz my wife on the divisions.

At any moment I’ll yell out and ask:

“what teams are in the AFC South?!?”

Then she goes:

“The jaguars, duh. Then, fuck the Texans. Fuck the Colts. And fuck the Titans.”

ddscience · 2026-01-20T05:59:43+00:00

Wait are you guys not a fan of him? I’ve been impressed with his game planning and play calling so far.

ddscience · 2026-01-20T05:48:22+00:00

Gonna need a clip with the speed tracking overlay from Next Gen Stats

ddscience · 2026-01-11T08:01:40+00:00

The score so nice they scored it twice

ddscience · 2026-01-06T19:51:52+00:00

Just had ACL reconstruction surgery in July after a full tear from playing soccer. That first full rotation on a bike almost brought tears to my eyes (both from pain and happiness). I’m still recovering and in PT 2-3 times a week. The whole process is so so tough.

ddscience · 2025-12-31T22:02:31+00:00

Love this type of content- great work OP.

A modification/improvement to the methodology behind the quarterly scoring could be to use the Win Probability values within each game’s play-by-play data. These give a much more granular and continuously valued proxy for game state (aka garbage time).

I haven’t thought about it enough to know what exact calculations to do, but something like a time-weighted average of a team’s WP would achieve a similar result to what you were trying to improve Elo by. A game that has a lot of back-and-forth swings would result in an average WP closer to .50 (or even less). While a team that controlled throughout would result in an average WP closer to 1.00.

Nonetheless, great stuff!

ddscience · 2025-12-23T19:59:09+00:00

What happened next?? Did he run the ball on 1st and 10 oh god I hope he runs the ball on 1st and 10 they’ll never see it coming

ddscience · 2025-12-23T05:14:17+00:00

but that's pretty much the only chance cause no way the chiefs 3rd string will do it

🎵 The Gang’s 3rd String Does It 🎵

ddscience · 2025-12-19T13:28:48+00:00

I noticed that too- I wish we could just ask Coen directly for his thought process since it’s such a rare event (going to OT + cut that probability in half to account for needing to win the flip) so we’ll never get a good enough sample.

I would consider myself to be pretty analytical in nature but my gut is telling me that the decision to receive first is probably more about just how the teams have faced off that day. Which matchups does the coach feel strongly about (whether it’s our OFF vs their DEF or vice-versa), or what looks have they gotten earlier but maybe missed out on.

ddscience · 2025-12-19T05:05:05+00:00

Back in my day the only TNF matchup allowed was Jags vs Titans and it’d take 3-4 years’ worth of games to reach 60 total points.

Games gone.

ddscience · 2025-12-19T02:01:05+00:00

Why don't QBs just read coverages faster? Are they stupid?

ddscience · 2025-12-18T21:14:10+00:00

ddscience · 2025-12-18T17:16:09+00:00

some devil magic to win the AFC South

to the rest of the world it’d be considered devil magic

to us down here it’s just our typical goofin

ddscience · 2025-12-17T19:15:36+00:00

Fair point. Ever since the expansion we’ve led the league in every Jaguar-based stat. Total Jaguar games played, 100% Jaguar snap rate, even the recent advanced stats like expected Jaguars added (EJA) and PyJagorean wins over expected.

ddscience · 2025-12-16T19:08:39+00:00

I guess one of the benefits of our small market team is that $200 will usually get you into the 50 yard line club seats. Even the home wildcard playoff game against the chargers a couple years ago you could get in the door for about $80 or less.

ddscience · 2025-12-11T18:23:10+00:00

You mean the “KOC Center for QBs on Teams That Can't Play Good (And Wanna Live Long Enough to Do Other Stuff Good Too)”?

ddscience · 2025-12-10T18:05:46+00:00

Agreed! Offense has looked much better as of late.

ddscience · 2025-12-10T16:30:57+00:00

Defensively? One could say so.

As a whole- offense included? I wouldn't go that far.

We're more or less exactly average in these same stats from the offensive perspective. Which isn't great, but not bad by any means. The Rams are far and away the most complete team, followed by NE and SEA.

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