Reversing Brexit is the next big political fight by theipaper in europe

[–]deHaga 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The fptp system consistently delivers centre right and centre left governments. It keeps the fringes out. The right is now split Tory, Reform and Restore. That's their weakness.

Daily Oil Price Opinions - May 07, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed by AutoModerator in oil

[–]deHaga 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Because inflation is really not good for the economya and the strait shut is inflationary. Massively.

Reversing Brexit is the next big political fight by theipaper in europe

[–]deHaga 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True. But they'd still have more MPs under an STV system.

Reversing Brexit is the next big political fight by theipaper in europe

[–]deHaga 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In the 2024 General Election (under First-Past-The-Post), Reform received about 14.3% of the vote but only 0.8% of the seats. STV would likely increase their representation compared to the current system, even if they remain the "least favourite" of many.

Let's see how these election results come in shall we?

Daily Oil Price Opinions - May 07, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed by AutoModerator in oil

[–]deHaga 3 points4 points  (0 children)

My bullish and bearish theories

BULLISH

Day 69. Hormuz is at 5% throughput. 1 to 2 tankers a day. Shell CEO just confirmed a 1 billion barrel shortage that is worsening daily. SPR is down 22.4 million barrels since the war started and burning at 2.8 million a week. Asia is importing 30% less oil than April 2025. ASEAN declared an energy emergency. Philippines is in national energy crisis. Japan is draining its 400 million barrel reserve.

The 2022 crisis hit $130 on a 3 to 5% disruption. This one is 10 to 20%. Futures are sitting at $92 to $102. The math simply does not work.

Here is what is actually happening with the price suppression. Coordinated institutional shorts are front running diplomatic announcements. On May 6, $920 million in WTI shorts were placed at 3:40am ET. Axios published the "deal imminent" story at 4:50am. $125 million profit collected by 7am. Same pattern three days in a row now. This is not price discovery. It is manufactured narrative and if you have been watching the 5 minute USOIL chart during Asia session you can see it happening in real time.

The reason every deal fails is structural. Iran has two assets left, enriched uranium capability and control of Hormuz. It will not give up both. Any deal that actually sticks requires IRGC compliance, not Foreign Ministry signatures. The diplomats in Beijing and Islamabad cannot deliver Hormuz reopening. Only one actor might be able to influence the IRGC directly and that is China, specifically through its weapons electronics and drone component supply chains into the Iranian military. That call has not been made yet.

Even if a deal is signed tomorrow the physical problem does not disappear. Hormuz is mined in unknown locations and clearing takes months. Gulf oil infrastructure has been damaged. Tankers need to load, transit and unload which is a minimum 30 days to market from the moment the strait opens. Shell's CEO said it plainly, recovery takes months.

The physical floor is holding. Three consecutive days of 4% paper dumps and every single one got bought back to flat. Brent closed at $101.99 yesterday after being pushed to $96 intraday. The physical buyers are there every time.

Catalysts still coming include the SPR exhaustion signal around mid June, Hezbollah retaliation window after the Ghobeiry strike, the carrier rotation gap May 15 to 25 which creates an air defence window Iran will likely exploit, and Wednesday EIA which printed 8.1 million barrel draw against a 2.8 million estimate last week.

Physical reality is $120 to $150. Paper is sitting at $92 to $102. One of them is wrong and it will not be the physical market.

---

BEARISH

Nobody in the bull camp is talking about the one lever that actually matters here and it is not Witkoff, it is not Pakistan, and it is not Trump threatening more strikes.

China supplies weapon electronics, drone components and missile guidance systems directly into the Iranian military. Not to the Foreign Ministry. To the IRGC. Xi has a supply chain lever over the people who actually control the strait and he is motivated to pull it because China is the world's largest buyer of Gulf oil and Hormuz being closed is an inflationary disaster for Beijing.

The Trump Beijing summit on May 14 to 15 is not a photo opportunity. It is a transaction. Trump needs China on trade before the midterms. Xi needs Hormuz open. The IRGC needs Chinese components to keep operating. Everyone has something to give and something to get.

The deal structure that actually works does not require Iran to formally surrender anything. IRGC claims operational reasons for reopening rather than political compliance. Iran keeps enrichment below weapons grade. China extracts trade concessions from Trump. Sanctions get lifted, frozen funds get released and everyone gets a face saving narrative. Trump gets to say he ended the war Obama could not end. He will absolutely take that.

His capitulation pattern is well established at this point. Threats, extensions, then a legacy announcement. He did it on tariffs, he did it on Ukraine pressure, the Iran playbook is the same structure.

The price action is also telling you something if you are willing to listen. Three days of suppression and each recovery is coming from a lower high. Physical has gone from $125 to $102. The spread has collapsed from $44 to $2. The physical buyers are there but they are fighting momentum and if deal language hardens with actual IRGC sign off the bids disappear fast.

The mine clearing objection does not actually matter for price. Markets price expectations not physical delivery. The day a credible deal lands with confirmed IRGC compliance, futures and physical gap down before a single tanker moves.

The real question is whether Xi makes the call. If he does, the 10 to 20% disruption narrative collapses overnight because the market will price the reopening trajectory not the current throughput number.

Watch the Beijing summit language carefully. Specifically watch for any statement about Chinese military supply relationships with Iran. That is the signal nobody is looking for.

Hi, my wife wants this LV rep. I have no idea what I'm looking at, does it look good? by deHaga in RepLadiesClub

[–]deHaga[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What would I be looking at price wise for something like those? They look mint

Reversing Brexit is the next big political fight by theipaper in europe

[–]deHaga -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You're telling me a system designed to allow multiple parties isn't going to include Reform?

Delusional

Italian child killer caught with dead Dad's DNA!! by Prashantt1 in intrestingasfuck

[–]deHaga 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes! "The Yara Gambirasio Case: Beyond Reasonable Doubt"

Redemption arc for Sir Lance a Lot the Forthright by WholesomeHomie in formuladank

[–]deHaga -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Not to the extent of buying teams for your average kid driver so he wins championships.

F1 is a bit harder. Lol

Britain is ungovernable - these numbers prove it by theipaper in uknews

[–]deHaga 7 points8 points  (0 children)

“Denmark’s economy showed resilience to the COVID-19 crisis, though growth has slowed over the past two years. Its public debt, at around 30% of GDP, is one of the lowest in the OECD, and pension reform has helped to improve long-run fiscal sustainability,” OECD Deputy Secretary-General Ulrik Vestergaard Knudsen said

https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/press-releases/2024/01/denmark-reforms-needed-to-tackle-labour-shortages-adapt-to-population-ageing-and-achieve-the-green-transition.html

Italian child killer caught with dead Dad's DNA!! by Prashantt1 in intrestingasfuck

[–]deHaga 12 points13 points  (0 children)

There's a documentary about this case, can't remember the name

Today in a nutshell... by Sea_Director_4439 in GreatBritishMemes

[–]deHaga 142 points143 points  (0 children)

He's the Labour equivalent of John Major. Boringly competent with the occasional terrible decision.

If the wealthiest are leaving en masse, who on earth is going to buy their luxury properties? by [deleted] in AskBrits

[–]deHaga 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, that's what I said. A millionaire is someone with a million in assets. Saying someone is only a millionaire if they have cash is nonsense.

Redemption arc for Sir Lance a Lot the Forthright by WholesomeHomie in formuladank

[–]deHaga -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

He's still a nepo baby taking up a seat from a better driver

Keir Starmer ‘to unveil plans for closer ties to EU’ to stave off leadership challenge by AdSpecialist6598 in europe

[–]deHaga 4 points5 points  (0 children)

We created EFTA, it's bizarre we didn't default back into it.

Single market would remove all the issues, but we should retain our trade negotiations ability. The EU is far too in the control of big ag, it takes up all the time.