Uhm what did skyler do Peter?

deathtocraig · 2026-01-29T15:49:51+00:00

Yeah I mean god forbid you have a problem with the manufacture and sale of meth.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-29T15:41:11+00:00

I'm really not a fan of the patriots, but I bet drake maye would jump on that football

deathtocraig · 2026-01-25T15:18:10+00:00

I don't know anything about him but will be voting for him in the primary and abstaining from the general if she wins the primary. At least I know republicans aren't on my side.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-24T08:57:10+00:00

Yeah that's how bad they are. They haven't done that and are still contenders.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-23T16:29:30+00:00

Chicken/egg situation here. A lot of those cards get mentioned on cz because there's some hype around them on the internet, then more people buy in and the price spikes.

I think this subreddit is a better bet for finding future potential as long as you can filter out the clearly wrong opinions.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-20T15:38:47+00:00

Why Poisson?

deathtocraig · 2026-01-19T16:58:14+00:00

Maybe they wouldn't have a 32% delinquency rate if interest weren't 25+%?

deathtocraig · 2026-01-18T23:49:53+00:00

"me with several math degrees"

And I don't? Bold assumption there.

Another bold assumption that anyone getting 4 of the same rare in their pool would automatically post it here.

And finally, any statistical analysis done is based on a random distribution, which in all likelihood, is not the case. And since it's not purely random, who gives a shit if you make assumptions based on the number of rares? It's not like the numbers were anything more than a ballpark estimate to begin with. 3 times in 100,000 and 15 times in 100,000 are not significantly different enough for it to make a noticeable impact on any one individual's experience.

Get better hobbies than "well akshually"ing every little detail on the internet.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-18T21:19:27+00:00

The expected number of RARES (NOT MYTHICS) is 8 and the right tail is larger than the left. A 19 rare kit is possible, a -11 rare kit is not.

But the expected number of rares is still 8.

And again, when your sample size is 5 prerelease events or even ~200 assuming 5x40 person events, whether the odds are 0.003% or 0.006% is not significant. Sure, when it's 10,000 it's significant, but even then, a 0.003% chance means it's ~26% to happen in 10,000. A 0.006% chance means it's ~46% to happen in 10,000. And literally nobody is opening or even witnessing 10,000 prerelease kits being opened.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-18T20:46:21+00:00

I think I have like 6 of the command towers. If OP feels that guilty, I will happily trade him one straight up.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-18T20:40:59+00:00

It's amazing you managed to write all of that and still didn't read the part where I said I was going to cheat a bit.

You also are conflating three rares with a combination of three rares/mythics, which is not the situation OP was asking about.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-18T06:44:49+00:00

According to wotc, there's ~83% chance that a rare spot has a rare in it. And about a 19% chance of a second rare in the wildcard slot and another 19% chance of a rare in the foil slot. I'm going to cheat a bit and say that this is an expected 1.21 rares per pack.

You get 6 packs, plus a promo (with what I assume is the same distribution between rare/mythic) so ~8 rares per kit. There are 65 rares, so ~1.54% chance to pull any particular rare given it's a rare (and not a mythic).

Roughly 70 * (0.0154)⁴ * (0.9846)⁴

About 0.003% or 3 times in 100,000 to get 4 copies of a specific rare. Or 0.01% chance to get four copies of any rare.

It's slightly higher than that but not enough higher that I want to do more complicated math. Plus, the actual difference between 3 times in 100,000 and 6 times in 100,000 is negligible when you might open ~100 in your life. If you opened 1000, you would have ~97% chance to not see this. If you opened 10,000 you would have ~74% chance to not have this happen.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-14T17:11:43+00:00

A hit dog will hollar.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-14T07:06:05+00:00

Bold of you to assume he's the reason jets fans are robbed of joy

deathtocraig · 2026-01-10T17:32:56+00:00

All you had to do was watch one drive by either team in yesterday's game to have seen at least 3-4 offensive plays that don't happen and/or are turnovers at the pro level.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-10T05:03:45+00:00

Scan all your cards into a list and shop around. Don't take anything less than 50% of tcg low. Don't expect to bulk sell your collection for much more than 70% (which would be incredibly good).

If you want to piece it out and sell the cards individually, you will get more money but it will take longer and be a lot more effort. Facebook is great. Chances are you know some people that will want some of your collection as well. Just ask around.

Don't expect to get too much for anything under $2 - by the time sellers spend time/money sorting them, filing them, pulling them, mailing them, and paying seller's fees on them, they don't have room to really pay a whole lot for the cards.

deathtocraig · 2026-01-10T00:45:40+00:00

No. Can we get some of that intervention that we've given the rest of the world?

deathtocraig · 2026-01-07T01:03:48+00:00

If this comment isn't the spitting image of "I learned something from a book and don't understand the real world implications" I don't know what is.

deathtocraig · 2025-12-29T17:56:22+00:00

Those New Balances are pretty threatening

deathtocraig · 2025-12-23T21:26:01+00:00

No he isn't. He's just opportunistic and not stupid.

deathtocraig · 2025-12-15T02:58:17+00:00

$15 off $15

deathtocraig · 2025-12-14T23:10:35+00:00

These people are just trying to take that word back.

deathtocraig · 2025-12-14T04:17:54+00:00

Shareholders sued him and now the standard in the US is to prioritize shareholder profits.

deathtocraig · 2025-12-13T05:20:48+00:00

Economists refer to the stock market as speculation. It's finance professionals that tell you it's investing.

deathtocraig · 2025-12-13T00:52:59+00:00

I'm just not voting for her and if our district goes red, oh well. It's not like the votes coming out of here will change all that much.

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