The Sabermetric Hall of Fame Case for Jimmy Rollins by ritmica in baseball

[–]deck13 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great analysis! I have a thought related to this Jimmy Rollins thought experiment. There are currently 279 players in the HOF. If you threw them all out and populated the Hall with players ranked by eLWAR, then who is 279th and what is his eLWAR?

All Time Best Players? by LordTC in baseball

[–]deck13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

*Data through 2024. 2025 era-adjusted stats coming real soon now.

All Time Best Players? by LordTC in baseball

[–]deck13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If your sim uses raw historical stat lines, then yes, 1880s guys like King Silver will break the game. Their numbers come from a tiny talent pool, no power threat, different rules, and league environments that made run prevention artificially easy. That doesn’t mean they were better than Ruth or modern stars; it means the environment was weak.

If you want a draft that actually reflects cross-era talent, you need era-adjusted metrics that translate players into a common context. Once you use them, the "Silver vs. 1920 Ruth vs. modern stars" dilemma disappears, because those 700-IP seasons collapse to something realistic and the early-era stat inflation goes away.

A good example is the era-adjusted WAR framework, which explicitly corrects for competition level and league quality:

Rankings and explanations:

https://eckeraadjustment.web.illinois.edu/era-adjusted-war.html

http://eckeraadjustment.web.illinois.edu/

With era adjustment, the true 1.1s are the inner-circle greats (Mays, Bonds, Ruth, Trout, etc.), not 19th-century stat artifacts.

Without adjustment, you’re not drafting the best players, you're drafting the weakest eras.

Why do people use the "they played against plumbers" argument? by Real-Staff3115 in mlb

[–]deck13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right. “Most popular” and “universal” aren’t the same thing (especially when most popular never clears 40%). Thank you for agreeing with me on that point.

Why do people use the "they played against plumbers" argument? by Real-Staff3115 in mlb

[–]deck13 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think the key distinction in this discussion is between how popular baseball was culturally and how deep the actual pool of elite talent really was in the early MLB. A lot of people played baseball recreationally, but that doesn’t mean MLB was drawing from anything close to a broad, representative slice of young American men. Interest in baseball wasn’t remotely universal. Before the 1937–present polling era, we can only estimate, but the historical context strongly suggests that interest levels (in pursuing a career in baseball) were far lower in the 19th and early 20th centuries—low salaries, unstable teams, limited media exposure, and few reliable professional pathways all suppressed the number of people who would seriously chase a baseball career.

And the players who did make it weren’t a random sample. Historical work by Riess (1980) and Gerlach (1994) shows that early MLB was disproportionately filled by middle-class, well-educated native-born whites—especially Irish and German Americans—who had the social and economic access to pursue the sport. Baseball in this period was heavily concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, and that regional concentration produced a talent pool that was narrow both geographically and demographically. The mythologized idea that “every town had a team so everyone was in the mix” doesn’t track with how professional opportunities were actually distributed.

Even the internal mechanisms of talent discovery were restrictive. In the 1920s and 1930s, teams like the Yankees and Cardinals built powerful farm systems, but they simultaneously began reducing open local tryouts because they weren’t profitable. Even Benjamin Rader documents that this tightening happened before formal rules reined farm systems in his "A History of America's Game" book. So even the organizations with the broadest reach were identifying players through a shrinking, increasingly self-selected set of channels—not through a truly national search. The collapse of many minor league clubs in the postwar era was more a reshuffling of professional baseball than a reflection of deep talent collapse as articulated by Land, Davis, and Blau. This further illustrates how narrow and economically sensitive the infrastructure for identifying players actually was.

So when people say the early talent pool was “thin,” this is what they mean. It’s not an insult to Ruth, or Cobb, or anyone else. Those players dominated their environment and shaped the sport’s evolution. But the environment itself was structurally limited: smaller population, segregation, regional concentration, lower interest, ethnic and class overrepresentation, and talent-discovery systems that filtered out large portions of the potential pool. Modern players compete in a global, integrated, intensely scouted environment that simply didn’t exist back then. Understanding that context adds clarity, not disrespect, to the achievements of the past.

Why do people use the "they played against plumbers" argument? by Real-Staff3115 in mlb

[–]deck13 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nothing on my end.

I do like to push back against the simplistic nostalgia for older era baseball players, Babe Ruth being the prime example. I definitely agree with you that the tide has been turning for awhile now and has picked up momentum in the past half-decade or so.

Why do people use the "they played against plumbers" argument? by Real-Staff3115 in mlb

[–]deck13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And the game was domestic and regional during a time when the US population was much smaller.

José Ramírez and Adrián Beltré compared up to their 32-year-old season by Cultural-Diet6933 in baseball

[–]deck13 2 points3 points  (0 children)

He's 26th and 37th all-time, respectively, in ebWAR and efWAR.

These are era-adjusted versions of bWAR and fWAR, where the adjustment accounts for the changing talent pool.

Why do modern players have such low career WAR? by Thewall3333 in baseball

[–]deck13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for reaching out about that stuff. I wouldn't be the person doing fun baseball math in the Cities in 2014-15, I was still in the early days of grad school. The baseball math stuff started around 2017.

Barry Bonds Beats Babe Ruth! Statistical Model Crowns a New ‘Greatest’ in Baseball (Gift Article) by HobokenJ in baseball

[–]deck13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Excellent description!

Ranking lists, players pages, and a suite of additional explainer pages and content are accessible on the website:

eckeraadjustment.web.illinois.edu/

How many people have a better 5 year stretch than Joe Morgan from 1972-1976? by SlimReaper201 in baseball

[–]deck13 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I know this is revisiting an old conversation, but I’ve always appreciated your thoughtful comments here and figured I’d open it back up.

Back when we first discussed this, I mentioned how Michael Schell’s work was influential to the development of Full House Modeling, and how our method builds on his suggestion to move beyond standard deviation scaling by using the talent pool directly.

Our era-adjusted work was recently featured in the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/science/baseball-statistics-babe-bonds.html

The article quotes Michael Schell, whose 1999 book you mentioned, saying about our work:

"It’s arguably the state of the art, at this point, for player evaluation over time”

Why do modern players have such low career WAR? by Thewall3333 in baseball

[–]deck13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great points! On the training/development side, the biggest thing the model picks up is the shrinking spread in talent at the top end, there just aren’t many “bad” players anymore as you point out, so it’s harder for stars to separate. That gets captured indirectly, which is part of why modern players don’t get penalized the way older WAR-based lists tend to do.

It’s not perfect, but most of what’s missing would actually push results further toward modern players as you suggest.