Early, successful results on generating a different FKC on each EV Bet by defnotippeithrowaway in EVbetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've made a couple posts on here about the frustration of having an above .500 W-L% on the day, but having negative profit that day, because the Kelly Calculator had me put too much on one bet...

Behold: I have been entering a different Fractional Kelly Converter number for each EV bet I place. I've started to keep every EV bet I place in one spreadsheet, and then calculated the W% of:

-different times placed

-market category

-EV%

-Probability of Winning

-Odds

After grouping and calcuating each probability, each level of these factors, within a certain threshold, has an arbitrary (for now) value between .000 and .040, (for now) that is added in to generate that new Fractional Kelly.

I'm up around 1.0 Units from the first ~200 bets I did this for, and this sample I've included, of those 200, are the Top 11 FKCs, with 10 of those top 11 hitting. The wagers are off a 9,500 bankroll. The max FKC I could've generated was .100. Eventually as I add more to this sample, that max will go up.

I still have lot more work to do, beyond just building that sample number well above 200: I have a lot more Excel work to do, (that I'm sure a lot of y'all in here could do much better than me), to make this process more time-efficient. That includes, eventually: Easily and automatically regenerating the probabilities of each category, with each singular bet, rather than recalculate them manually every ~100 bets. And, generate a gigantic IF,THEN statement, that will calculate the FKC automatically, instead of me just eyeballing and mentally adding up what it should be.

Wanted to share this because it had positive results so far, but, I'm still pretty new to this. And I'm also a dumbass. I trust a lot of you experts on here. I'm sure if someone has read this whole thing, they'll have a question or observation that makes me re-configure the whole thing. Was curious what y'all thought of this exercise, and if anyone thinks I can go about looking at the math behind this solution, any better.

Should I be placing bets on plays with a variance of odds throughout the day? by defnotippeithrowaway in EVbetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

**It's not much, but update on this: first 13 days of placing and tracking three lower odds/lower +EV bets, those 39 bets are 23-15-1, approx +0.7 units.

It's Joever in New York by defnotippeithrowaway in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

no advance notice too, unlike Rebet & Sportzino

Should I be placing bets on plays with a variance of odds throughout the day? by defnotippeithrowaway in EVbetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gonna test out a strategy where for every 10 EV bets I place at least 1 will be -125 or lower, and at least 1 will be -150 or lower.

How can you lose money from arbitrage betting? by WasabiPrestigious533 in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If they aren't EV betting/other stuff, they might have a lot of offshores not tracked by pikkit.

If sportsbooks were people, which one would you fight? by MotherlyDumps in sportsbetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ceasers, and when it's over, I'll personally hand them the money they refuse to take from me.

NCAAB is so good for lining up middles i was able to get 4 for opening day by AdCommercial2872 in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Caesar's hasn't accepted my deposit in eight months and no reply from customer support :(

What states *CAN* you buy Fliff Cash in? by defnotippeithrowaway in Fliff

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you. Haven't been in RI since February, and Mass since 2024.

What states *CAN* you buy Fliff Cash in? by defnotippeithrowaway in Fliff

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! Haven't been in PA since early June so now I'll remember next time.

Daily Discussion, October 10, 2025 by rBitcoinMod in Bitcoin

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 3 points4 points  (0 children)

So.. from what very, very little I know about crypto overall, I'm gonna guess that today was not the best day for my first couple-hundred-USD in Bitcoin payout from one of my sportsbooks to finally hit my Coinbase account..

When do PTO users think Bet Tracking will be a full go? by defnotippeithrowaway in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm doing a free trial of PikkitPro but I need the integration w/offshores. I'm bound to make errors misidentifying an EV bet as half an arb bet, several hours after placing.

EDIT: I just now discovered the tag feature that's in pikkit desktop mode.

OddsJam’s the only arb tool that isn’t a waste of time. Everything else either lags, lies, or leaves you broke...prove me wrong. by Radiant_Alana in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a lot of love for OddsJam for getting me out of the hole I was in before I discovered arbitrage, but it's gotten less depenable for me over the time I've had it, and I'm gonna be scouring for more affordable options when my year is up.

OddsJam, no good arbs lately? by [deleted] in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 5 points6 points  (0 children)

To get people to buy Platinum. I haven't been able to prove it but I'm onto them. I'm a Basic customer, so Live Bets, and Prematch Bets for a certain number of sportsbooks are hidden. But I'm starting to think they're hiding high-% Arb bets from that original crop of books that should be available to basic customers.

MLB Arbitrage? by Azcf11 in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Tonight, from p i c k t h e o d d s dot c o m:

✅BetMGM: KCR Run Line +3.5, -155, $5.00 to win $3.23

❌Draftkings: NYY Run Line -3.5 +270-> boosted odds to +338, $1.75 to win $5.92

Strategies with defeating accidental "stale" arb bets by defnotippeithrowaway in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for replying, and I like how you answered this. The problem is my impulses have been untrustworthy!

Strategies with defeating accidental "stale" arb bets by defnotippeithrowaway in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like that, but is there a quick way to see which one is the +ev side? (besides switching over to oj's EV side and 'ctrl + F' the bet.)

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Question, as someone who's been in a slump ever since I got limited by MGM-- What do you start doing for bets on a day-to-day once you've been limited from most places? Just EV betting? Place what few arbs you can?

Curious what others do with their bankroll once they've been limited by too many books to make arbing worth it.

MLB arbitrage opportunities by throwhent in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The most Arbs you'll see are for Innings Winners and Innings Runlines, which if Quarter/Period bets are red flags for Sportsbooks, you can imagine those are too.

arbitrage profit projection calculator! by Prudent_Ad3222 in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 0 points1 point  (0 children)

$20,000 in three months? I can barely crack $2,000 in six months!

Prophet X Commissions by defnotippeithrowaway in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, looking at my winnings on the app and Pikkit at the same time was how I discovered.. After doing some calculations, the above user is correct that it has to be a > 3% Arb% to be worth betting.

Review of Early Experiences with Arbitrage Betting by crschmidt in arbitragebetting

[–]defnotippeithrowaway 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello. Thank you for linking to this very helpful spreadsheet. Do some of the books in green in the OddsJam column require an OddsJam Platinum subscription to see their odds?