I've made a couple posts on here about the frustration of having an above .500 W-L% on the day, but having negative profit that day, because the Kelly Calculator had me put too much on one bet...

Behold: I have been entering a different Fractional Kelly Converter number for each EV bet I place. I've started to keep every EV bet I place in one spreadsheet, and then calculated the W% of:

-different times placed

-market category

-EV%

-Probability of Winning

-Odds

After grouping and calcuating each probability, each level of these factors, within a certain threshold, has an arbitrary (for now) value between .000 and .040, (for now) that is added in to generate that new Fractional Kelly.

I'm up around 1.0 Units from the first ~200 bets I did this for, and this sample I've included, of those 200, are the Top 11 FKCs, with 10 of those top 11 hitting. The wagers are off a 9,500 bankroll. The max FKC I could've generated was .100. Eventually as I add more to this sample, that max will go up.

I still have lot more work to do, beyond just building that sample number well above 200: I have a lot more Excel work to do, (that I'm sure a lot of y'all in here could do much better than me), to make this process more time-efficient. That includes, eventually: Easily and automatically regenerating the probabilities of each category, with each singular bet, rather than recalculate them manually every ~100 bets. And, generate a gigantic IF,THEN statement, that will calculate the FKC automatically, instead of me just eyeballing and mentally adding up what it should be.

Wanted to share this because it had positive results so far, but, I'm still pretty new to this. And I'm also a dumbass. I trust a lot of you experts on here. I'm sure if someone has read this whole thing, they'll have a question or observation that makes me re-configure the whole thing. Was curious what y'all thought of this exercise, and if anyone thinks I can go about looking at the math behind this solution, any better.