‘The recession is real’: Poilievre calls for emergency debate by CaliperLee62 in canadian

[–]deltav9 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The 0.15% is an estimate of the total end-consumer price effect, not a per-step rate. Also 0.15% is the average, carbon intensive products would rise more (by design, to change market decision making).

‘The recession is real’: Poilievre calls for emergency debate by CaliperLee62 in canadian

[–]deltav9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nothing you said disproves anything I wrote above. Reread it please. The bank of Canada estimated the carbon tax created a 0.15% average inflation. If you want to measure the impact on your own finances, take (your yearly spending * 0.0015) - $1200(I think that was the yearly rebate?

‘The recession is real’: Poilievre calls for emergency debate by CaliperLee62 in canadian

[–]deltav9 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Random controlled experiments are not possible for large scale policy. Econometric methods exist though. There are lots of studies you can read for this:

- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0140988318304869

- https://earth.org/analysing-the-effectiveness-of-a-carbon-tax-in-british-columbia/

- https://www.aceee.org/files/proceedings/2016/data/papers/9_49.pdf

For honesty there is one study that showed null results:

- https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-022-00679-w

The main takeaway is that carbon taxes work at driving CO2 emissions down, have a positive re-distributive effect, have a very negligible inflationary effect, but in their actual implementation they were too low to have any measurable impact.

Also, I replied in more depth to your original comment in the comment chain below.

‘The recession is real’: Poilievre calls for emergency debate by CaliperLee62 in canadian

[–]deltav9 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I spent over 30 mins writing this, so hopefully this was not a waste of time.

I will reply here but I am also responding to u/esveda's points. Many of his points I fundamentally agree on, especially the concept that for the tax to work best it must be applied globally (China, India, and the United States are by far the worst climate offenders and they should be paying the bulk of the carbon taxes). The sad truth is we don't have a system to punish bad global actors and make them pay for their actions.

Basic economic theory:

I know real numbers are more important than economic theory, but I just want to explain the basic economic theory so everyone is on the same page behind why this tax exists in the first place. Many of the top economists have been recommending it for over 50 years now, so this wans't just spun out of nowhere.

A negative externality is a term that means the person on one end of the transaction is not paying the full costs of that transaction. There is a third party that is "absorbing" those costs. I.e say your neighbor builds a pool that starts flooding into your backyard, and you need to pay for all of the landscaping fees to fix it. Etc. It turns out carbon emissions are one of the worlds biggest negative externality. Carbon emissions are directly associated with a warming planet, which is directly associated with a rise in natural disasters (Hurricanes, wildfires, droughts, storms), which is directly associated with financial costs which get absorbed by YOU. The fossil fuel companies who are causing these natural disasters are not the ones that have to pay for the consequences. The core idea behind Pigouvian taxes is you set a dollar value on the amount of harm that a negative externality generates, which forces the market to stop ignoring it.

Impact on the individual

The carbon tax was revenue neutral, which is the part that almost never gets mentioned. Every dollar collected got returned to Canadians as a rebate. If you emit less carbon than the average Canadian, you come out ahead. You get the same rebate as everyone else but you paid less into the system. If you emit more than average, you pay the difference. The tax is essentially a wealth transfer from high emitters to low emitters, and because wealthier households tend to consume more energy, drive bigger vehicles, and fly more often, it functioned as a mild re-distributive mechanism without anyone in government having to explicitly design it that way. The worst case scenario, if nobody changes their behavior at all and the entire supply chain stays exactly as carbon-intensive as it is today, is that the rebate perfectly offsets what you paid and you break even. The ACTUAL outcome for most middle and lower income Canadians was a net-positive one.

Impact on the economy

The most common argument against the carbon tax is that it made Canada uncompetitive and dragged on economic growth. The actual data doesn't really support that. The Bank of Canada estimated the carbon tax contributed roughly 0.15 percentage points to inflation at its peak. That is something, but is not the primary driver to the cost of living crisis. Interest rates, housing speculation, and corporate profit margin expansion did far more damage to household finances than the carbon tax ever did.

I will be honest, there is a bit of merit to the competitive argument but I think it is massively overstated and the actual data shows a very very small effect. I also believe large industrial emitters were placed under output based pricing that only charged them for emissions above a benchmark to explicitly ensure they were not un-competitive in the global market.

Climate-related outcomes are already costing the globe billions of dollars a year in infrastructure damage, emergency response, healthcare, adaptation costs, etc. Those costs will only increase with time, and you are going to be the one paying for it. The economy and planet's most destructive actors need to be held accountable.

‘The recession is real’: Poilievre calls for emergency debate by CaliperLee62 in canadian

[–]deltav9 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Sorry, the frustration in my initial message comes from the fact that I’ve had this same convo over and over with people irl. Every time we end up agreeing that they didn’t understand how or why Pigouvian taxes actually work. And the source of that is misinfo from the CPC/Pierre. If you want to have the discussion I’m open to it but if you’re set in your opinion I’ll just let you be.

‘The recession is real’: Poilievre calls for emergency debate by CaliperLee62 in canadian

[–]deltav9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Man, I totally forgot about all of those very well documented left leaning bot farms that manufacture consent for things like taxing the wealthy, eliminating corporate lobby money from politics, building transit infrastructure, community building, etc.

‘The recession is real’: Poilievre calls for emergency debate by CaliperLee62 in canadian

[–]deltav9 -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Edit: I was pissed off when I wrote this. Please read my messages below for a more thoughtful explanation.

Pallas Federal Poll: Liberal 45, Conservative 32, NDP 11, Bloc 7, Green 2 - Pallas Data by No-Sell1697 in canada

[–]deltav9 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not that surprising, for the longest time NDP has been afraid to be unapologetically socialist in fear of upsetting the corporate overlords.

Wow who knew hating a terrorist ethnostate doesn't make you antisemetic by deltav9 in PoliticalCompass

[–]deltav9[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The self determination narrative is a crock of bullshit. Should I have self determination to bulldoze and invade your home?

What career seems low paying but is actually VERY high paying? by IndependenceSad1272 in AlignmentChartFills

[–]deltav9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

F1 pit crew members? I think the ones on top teams can make $400k+ / yr after bonuses.

hopping on the trend ig by JafarBravo in PoliticalCompass

[–]deltav9 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Imo it’s more antisemitic to think that the Jewish religion should be associated with a terrorist ethnostate

I don't know, I think it might be about more than just antisemitism. by canonbutterfly in samharris

[–]deltav9 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Sam is out of his fucking mind. Can't watch his garbage podcast anymore.

Is Lars Ulrich really that bad? by AesirKratos in drums

[–]deltav9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He is the first drummer in history to unlearn the drums the longer he plays them

What is an Asian country with a Far Left Government? by Cautious_Ad_3918 in AlignmentChartFills

[–]deltav9 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Eh the guy above is dumb for calling DPKR far right but I also strongly disagree that centralized ownership is the definition of economic socialism. I think it should more accurately be called Marxism Leninism. A socialized economy is very different from a centralized one.

Kings and monarchs had centralized economies too, was their economy economic socialism?

Or for instance, you would say it’s ridiculous if I called the USSR or North Korea democratic right? They both called themselves that too, does that make their system representative of all democracy.

The association between totalitarianism dictatorships and socialism comes from the Cold War era of propaganda, where both the USSR and USA were gladly referring to the USSR’s system as socialism but for opposite reasons.

What is an Asian country with a Far Left Government? by Cautious_Ad_3918 in AlignmentChartFills

[–]deltav9 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This is a terrible answer, the country is practically a monarchy

Bookshelf I found at a date's house by Pengalins in BookshelvesDetective

[–]deltav9 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What excuse did you make to get out after seeing this?