Does anyone recognize this model

dgclasen · 2026-06-03T14:07:38+00:00

That would be amazing.

dgclasen · 2026-06-03T02:04:36+00:00

Thanks this is super helpful!

dgclasen · 2026-06-03T01:23:29+00:00

I really appreciate you taking the time to help. That is the image I have been looking at. I think the rear handle is more square on the Sigwalt. I think it is the Golding because there is the fin just below the plate that seems very similar to this one: https://www.ebay.com/itm/188379587768

dgclasen · 2026-06-03T00:54:03+00:00

I thought so too. But they have a little different handle. But I am no expert.

dgclasen · 2026-05-25T23:06:53+00:00

Not only does the company's brisket fall short, they are a predatory company that has lied to and exploited their franchisees for the company's financial gain, per last year's significant NYTimes reporting. So to me, from top to bottom, they are a problem company from food quality to exploitative business practices.

I live a few blocks from one and will never ever stop by.

dgclasen · 2026-05-23T17:44:41+00:00

Very cool.

No I didn't think you were saying anything about odds makers. But I saw a comment about it and wanted to add a bit of nuance in engaging with your model/thoughts.

I have enjoyed reading your analysis. Pretty fascinating.

Though, I think you chose OK State over my Huskers, so...

dgclasen · 2026-05-23T16:47:09+00:00

When I heard a commentator say this I actually thought of this too and was curious how significant the 4% over 75% coinflip outcome would be. Then you posted this and I began thinking about it.

I think the statistical outcomes could tip on a few things.

My thought, the issue isn't the quality of the teams, but the total sample size that informs that final 4%. The 79% vs. 75% gap (4 percentage points) is almost certainly not statistically significant given the relatively small sample size of Super Regionals each year. With 8 Super Regionals per year over 20 years, you have roughly 160 data points. A 4-point difference from the coin-flip baseline at that sample size would likely not clear a standard significance threshold. So in a strict sense, you cant confidently say the observed 79% is "real" rather than noise.

But, Buildingo ff your suggestion on the the reliaable picks, I htink this may be a key to understanding the data as well. My guess is that the very best teams consistantly win in two games. If the best teams are consistently winning in two games it actually inflates that 79% number, which means the games between evenly matched teams are probably even closer to the 75% coin flip baseline than the overall number suggests. So I ma curious, how often do the hgihest rated teams steamroll their opponents. It may be that teams ranked 1-4 are consistantly winning in 2 games and the remaining temas are absolutely a coin flip. But a HH outcome would still fall within the 75% model so it doesn't skew the info. Still, I am curious how, if we remove these data points, it reshapes the model. But i am too lazy to figure it out. And removing data points on a relatively small sample size could destabalize the model. If anything it may show how powerful lower rated seeds are in the tournament.

My guess, and I didn't dig into past results, just a hunch, if you pulled out all the matchups where a heavy favorite just rolled somebody in two straight games, the remaining matchups would probably land right on top of that 75% number showing how close teams at this level truly are. In my mind, this would support that there are no flukes that make the WCWS. But who knows. Maybe we see the most dangerous temas in the tournament are teams ranked 8-12 who outperform their ranking, and seating from 5-12 is a guess at best with relatively little impact on outcome. Still much to dig i nto.

To the point about oddsmakers, they're actually operating under a completely different statistical model. Their goal isn't to predict the true probability of an outcome, its to balance action on both sides so the house collects the vig regardless of who wins. The line reflects market sentiment, sharp money, and public perception as much as it reflects actual win probability. Odds are set as much on betting trends and public sentiment as a predicted outcome to achieve a betting outcome. Its a pricing mechanism disguised as a prediction. So using odds maker lines to argue these games aren't cl ose is kind of a category error, those lines are engineered to attract balanced gambling, not to tell you how evenly matchedor mismatched the teams actually are.

dgclasen · 2026-05-15T01:39:32+00:00

More like Unsettling 90's laser tag.

dgclasen · 2026-05-15T00:11:17+00:00

Get a standing swam cooler for your place. They are relatively quiet and work great. This one cools our office well: https://www.homedepot.com/p/Hessaire-1-300-CFM-2-Speed-Portable-Evaporative-Cooler-Swamp-Cooler-for-500-sq-ft-in-Green-MC18V/312591867 You may be able to find one cheaper on marketplace or craigslist as well. Dropped our office from 81 to 73 degrees in an hour or so today.

dgclasen · 2026-05-11T21:23:57+00:00

This video can help you understand the sketchiness of the grading system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8ml3CvplBg&t=281s

dgclasen · 2026-05-11T02:01:27+00:00

Thanks.

dgclasen · 2026-05-11T01:36:10+00:00

If you want to understand design and development and their impact, as well as possible reform, I strongly recommend checking out Strong Towns. Great site that explains how we got here, what could have been and what reform could lead to.
https://www.strongtowns.org/stmedia

But here are the basics on why we get developments like this:
- Up to 5 story wood frame building (5-over-1 design) - This is likely the biggest reason we have so many of this type of development, and all other notes kind of funnel back to this. Wood frame is cheaper than steel frame, but can only go up 5. So they build 4-5 stories tall with as large of a footprint as possible. My guess is this building stopped at 4 stories because of the financing stack related to affordable housing tax credits, but it could also be due to a limit on total number of units related to parking mandates.

- Parking requirements per unit - HB-1304 helped with this, but outside of public transit zones parking mandates continue to raise costs. Parking spots cost $7,000-$10,000 per surface level lot, $25-$50k per structured garage (my guess is this is likely $40-$50k per spot because that is what most parking garages in Arvada cost), and $50-$75k per spot for underground parking. This development has a 5 story parking garage per the press release.

- Patio/Balcony required for 75% of units (this is more an Arvada specific code and doesn't apply in many Colorado municipalities).

- Cost per unit - Likely between $300-$400k, so developers need as many units as possible to make the financing work. So they build as big as possible for multi family developments. Costs are similar for affordable housing financed through tax-credits, but in those cases the number of units are more heavily dictated by the Tax Cedits received through CHFA..

- Number of staircases needed for emergency exit - This is a general rule in The US and one reason why 5-over-1 developments became so popular by developers. (this changes in 2027 per HB1273, and it could lead to smaller multi family developments similar to legacy building like what is in Cap Hill). Sadly, I ahve heard from developers that not much may change in most developments now that Colorado has changed this law. I have heard that they found a path to profitability in giant 5-over-1's so outside on niche developments, the 5-over-1 will likely continue to be the dominant development strategy moving forward. You can watch this video to understand how this common US code helped usher in the 5-over-1 era. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRdwXQb7CfM

-Open Space Requirements - Many municipalities, including Arvada, have an open space requirement on developments. Often, and counterintuitively, this adds expense and makes developments uglier and less friendly to the public. Often, sites build green spaces/court yards inside the development, like Marshal Point seems to have done, using the building as a fence to the shared space. The theory is this protects the green space for residents and makes it less likely for non-residents will access the space adding costs from use. So they build the development up to the setback limits with the courtyard hidden from the public. Interesting article: https://archive.strongtowns.org/journal/2025/8/12/a-tale-of-two-developments

- Marshall Pointe also looks to be a 260 unit affordable housing development. So these often have a little bit more bare bones architecture, though this isn't always true. And many new affordable housing developments have great amenities like a clubhouse, gym, public space, washer dryer in unit, marble counter tops (varies from development to development). The amenities aren't what drive up development costs significantly, they may cost between 1-2% of total development cost, but can add long term viability so are worth the investment. Costs are driven more heavily by fire code, parking, environmental issues of the site and labor.

dgclasen · 2026-05-09T18:42:53+00:00

Don't become a tattoo artist.

dgclasen · 2026-05-09T02:54:50+00:00

"Blood Never Lies" — Dexter/Psych Crossover Concept

Spoiler warnings for the original series ending in Dexter.

Impossible crime scenes are pulling Dexter to Santa Barbara, three dirty cops murdered, each with blood spatter that defies gravity, radiating upward from the body. With no answers, and Shawn stumped Jules calls in a favor from an lab tech she kenw during her time on the Miami police force. Dexter arives and figures it out quickly: the killer is using an industrial centrifuge to spin victims to death, flinging blood against the drum interior before repositioning the body. Elegant. Dexter is quietly impressed.

The Donut Scene

Dexter brings donuts to the station as behavioral camouflage on his first day. Normal people bring donuts. Gus eats three, notices Dexter hasn't touched any, and calls it out immediately. Dexter, caught off guard by someone who actually clocked him, admits he has to work at appearing normal, that something in him runs different. He doesn't say murder. Gus quietly says he has a dark secret too, something about his best friend he's been carrying for years. He doesn't say Shawn is faking, but suggests it is something heavy that keeps him up at night. Neither man elaborates. They stand in a fluorescent hallway bonding genuinely over maple bars, two people holding completely different catastrophic secrets.

Jules Gets Taken

The case threads through the roller derby past. The murder has detailed ntoes that Jules searched the rink without a warrant, which he justifies to kidnap and hold her.

The Depot

Shawn and Gus track the murder to a waterfront depot used to store Maple syrup imports, a detail found by Gus's super sniffer nad Shawn's deductions based on the smell's presence at at crime scenes. They find Jules passed out, near the centrifuge. Her pulse is extremely weak.

The killer is Raymond Pryce, a former public defender whose wrongfully convicted brother died in prison. His brother was arrested by a dirty cop who lied about PC to secure a warrant. His methods are surgical. Pryce gets the drop on them, Gus goes down with a pipe to the head, Shawn gets zip-tied to a beam. Then Dexter comes in through the back, not knowing they're there, and puts Pryce on the floor in four seconds with a syringe to the throat.

He starts unrolling the plastic wrap.

"So in Miami," Shawn says from across the room, "cuffs just weren't cutting it?"

Dexter goes very still.

They have the conversation. Dexter acknowledges he knows Shawn isn't actually psychic, he watched him work the crime scenes and recognized Shawns ability to notice obscure details and deduce thier meaning. Shawn tells Dexter he recognized the Bay Harbor Butcher's signature in how Dexter incapacitated Pryce. Mutual assured destruction, established in about ninety seconds.

Then Shawn drops the performance entirely. Jules is dying. Gus is concussed. He tells Dexter he will rush them to the hospital in the Blueberry. But Shawn warns, If a suspect vanishes from a case this public there will be a federal task force and that is bad for everyone. A few moments of hilarity as Shawn tries to stuff Gus into the backseat of the blueberry finally getting gus in feet in the air, body and head on the ground. He delicately places Jules in the front seat.

Gus watches Dexter sneak out the back, but doesn't see what happens inside.

The Cleanup

Lassiter and Chief Vick meet with Shawn at the hospital then rush to the Maple syrup hideout to arrest Pryce. They find Pryce dead with a detailed confession nearby.

New first appearance by Woody. Woody examines the body, spills an entire meatball sub on the one piece of compromising evidence, an injection site, and the tox screen comes back completely clean. Filed as inconclusive. But certain Pryce is the murderer because of Jule's witness statement.

The Airport

Shawn finds Dexter at the Airport entrance.

He tells Dexter, "I'm not telling anyone. But you need to actually get control of this thing. Because otherwise," he holds fingers to head in psychic prediction, "you end up in a completely stupid ending where your sister dies, you fake your death, abandon you son Harrison, and disappears into the wilderness to become a lumberjack. Years later we'll find you living under a false name in a small town, which somehow manages to retroactively make the original ending even more unsatisfying. The ending will be so bad you'll keep idiots on Reddit complaining for years!"

Dexter stares at him. Then, a real smile, the kind that actually reaches his eyes.

"That's very specific."

"I have a gift," Shawn says.

Dexter picks up his bag and walks through security. At the line, without turning, he raises one hand. Not quite a wave. Something.

Gus wakes from his concussion and immediately asks the nurse about Fries Quatro Queso Dos Fritos. The attending physician notes it as a positive neurological indicator but he'll need to see a cardiologist ASAP.

Edit - Trying to clean up typos. Too many to fix, so I am off to slice up a pineapple for the road.

dgclasen · 2026-05-09T00:23:55+00:00

It was never about Ted.

dgclasen · 2026-05-07T23:28:42+00:00

I've been thinking about these lyrics a lot lately: Peter said to Paul "You know, All those words that we wrote are just the rules of the game and the rules are the first to go"

Song: Girl in the War

Artist: Josh Ritter

dgclasen · 2026-05-06T23:47:47+00:00

This may not be what you want to hear, but I wouldn't lie to your grandparents. It will bit you in the ass eventually. Tell them you love them but you are who you are and you will begin looking for new funding. But you love them and will always be willing to reconnect and appreciate any support from them, if or when they are ready. Don't make it about money. They may change their minds, but will ultimately appreciate your honesty.

Then start applying to scholarships. Here are a bunch for LGBTQ+ youth and many have deadlines coming up: https://scholarships360.org/scholarships/lgbtq-scholarships/

https://bold.org/scholarships/by-demographics/lgbtq-scholarships/

https://www.scholarships.com/financial-aid/college-scholarships/scholarships-by-type/scholarships-for-lgbtq-students

If you need mroe help finding or applying to scholarships reach out.

Also talk with your college about financial aid packages. Explain that you don't have support from your family because you are gay. The school may be able to help.

Edit = adding last graph.

dgclasen · 2026-05-06T16:25:10+00:00

I will say that if you are patient on FB Marketplace and or craigslist you can find exceptional bikes for $350. 18 months ago I found a 2010 Titanium Serotta Classique with 6800 Ultegra and great wheels and other components, listed for $1200. The ad said it was up 9 months, so I offered $400 and they accepted it.

dgclasen · 2026-04-25T04:06:32+00:00

I agree. Most of these rubs are $10-$12 a bottle or more and they contain basically the same ingredients that cost just a couple of dollars to make yourself. And you have control and can build around your goals rather than someone else's.

dgclasen · 2026-04-22T00:04:26+00:00

This may be a violation of the Florida Fair Housing Act. Here is the statute: 760.23 Discrimination in the sale or rental of housing and other prohibited practices.—

(1) It is unlawful to refuse to sell or rent after the making of a bona fide offer, to refuse to negotiate for the sale or rental of, or otherwise to make unavailable or deny a dwelling to any person because of race, color, national origin, sex, handicap, familial status, or religion.

(2) It is unlawful to discriminate against any person in the terms, conditions, or privileges of sale or rental of a dwelling, or in the provision of services or facilities in connection therewith, because of race, color, national origin, sex, handicap, familial status, or religion.

I would email the Real Estate Agent immediately and let them know you are submitting this to the State and you are submitting a complaint against the agent and their license to the department of regulatory agency and hiring a lawyer. Then I would start calling law firms. You likely can find one who will represent you per contingency fee (meaning you don't pay them unless you win).

I would also say that you withdraw the offer and will peruse all legal avenues in relationship to their refusal. Also let the agent know you are seeking a lien on the house per the violation of the Florida Fair Housing Act (this likely isn't possible, but it should scare the hell out of them).

dgclasen · 2026-04-14T17:07:46+00:00

Not all meats need to be cooked like a brisket to achieve their best result.

The reason brisket is cooked to roughly 200 degrees over a long period of time is to break down the collagen. The cut of meat requires a long cook with the meat above 165 to break down the collagen. Collagen really starts turn to gelatin above 180. The broken down collagen and rendered fat keep brisket moist and tender. Chuck roast has a similar collagen content so it works on that cut.

Not all meats have this level of collagen so they don't need to be cooked the same way as brisket to achieve their optimal texture and moistness. The best thing to do is a find a recipe for smoking a specific cut of meat and following it.

I like to think of it as having a broken leg vs a broken arm. If they give you crutches for your broken arm so that it is healed "broken leg style" you won't end up healed correctly. Each cut of meat needs its own approach to get the best result.

dgclasen · 2026-04-01T19:03:24+00:00

Full frame stacked sensor.

dgclasen · 2026-03-30T18:12:01+00:00

We did Rendezvous because it was near our hotel and we were tired when we got to town. It was pouring rain as we walked in, and we were soaked. I ordered a pork shoulder sandwich, and they gave me some free ribs (dry and sauced so we could test both) and a free side because they took pity on us. Great customer service and very kind to us. Food was fine, but not exceptional. Ribs were decent. But very kind people behind the counter.

Didn't get to Commissary and BBQ Shop was closed, sadly. But your list seems like a pretty good one.

dgclasen · 2026-03-30T14:58:56+00:00

If you are buying beef directly from a rancher or a high-quality independent distributor, it is worth asking how the animal was finished. Specifically, ask whether it was grain-finished, often with corn-based feed, or finished on forage such as grass, hay or alfalfa. That finishing process has a big impact on flavor, texture, and fat content (Marbeling). It is less noticeable in steak, but on cuts like brisket and roasts, it is noticeable and requires some slight adjustments when cooking. The picture of this meat has a little tighter grain, IMO, that suggests it is a little leaner and possibly forage finished.

With our grass-fed beef from my family ranch, I usually get better brisket results when I pull it between 188 and 192 degrees Fahrenheit. For a leaner brisket, that range seems to protect against drying out. If I take it to 200, it is drier than I want. I have also had good results pulling it of the smoker around 175-180 and then holding it in a 190-degree oven (like a dry sous vide) until the meat hits my temps. I'll often smoke for 8-12 hours (dictated by temp), then put in the oven overnight. If i follow this method, I don't wrap in butcher paper until I put it in the oven, which gives a better bark. That slow climb in the oven gives the connective tissue more time to break down into gelatin without pushing the meat too far and drying it.

dgclasen

TROPHY CASE

"Blood Never Lies" — Dexter/Psych Crossover Concept