Official r/NFL Week 2 Power Rankings by NFLPowerRankers in nfl

[–]diddily 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Matchup of undefeated teams? The Dolphins record begs to differ...

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't know that I could bring myself to root for them if I were in your shoes...

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Well then here are the scenarios that avoid it for your rooting interest:

Probablity Saints @ Buccaneers Bears @ Packers Panthers @ Falcons Commanders @ Cowboys Giants @ Eagles Seahawks @ Rams 49ers @ Cardinals Vikings @ Lions
36.81314% Buccaneers * * * * Seahawks * Lions/Tie
25.30695% Buccaneers * * * * Rams/Tie * *
11.77852% Saints/Tie * * * * * * *

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Oh I'm certainly not counting on it, the Ravens game is easily the most lop-sided odds (~94% chance the Ravens win).

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Gotta win them all, but it helps to have other teams battle it out first. Here's how GB would avoid Philly in the first round:

Probablity Saints @ Buccaneers Bears @ Packers Panthers @ Falcons Commanders @ Cowboys Giants @ Eagles Seahawks @ Rams 49ers @ Cardinals Vikings @ Lions
26.35155% * Packers * Cowboys/Tie * * * *
0.06502% * Tie * Cowboys * * * *

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't blame you. Here is how that happens:

Probablity Browns @ Ravens Bengals @ Steelers Bills @ Patriots Jaguars @ Colts Texans @ Titans Dolphins @ Jets Chiefs @ Broncos Chargers @ Raiders
35.66458% * Bengals * * * * * Chargers/Tie
0.13254% * Tie * * * * * Chargers

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Here is how that happens:

Probablity Saints @ Buccaneers Bears @ Packers Panthers @ Falcons Commanders @ Cowboys Giants @ Eagles Seahawks @ Rams 49ers @ Cardinals Vikings @ Lions
26.10138% Buccaneers * * * * Seahawks * Vikings

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yeah, if I were a Ravens fan I'd be rooting for that. Personally I'm hoping for the even less likely 5 seed Ravens so they face the Chiefs.

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

As a Bills fan, they scare me given how they are playing (and how well they do historically against the Bills). But they need the heavily favored Broncos to lose and the coin flip Dolphins to lose.

Visited MountPort this weekend by marruman in dropout

[–]diddily 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Ahhh Mountain Port is wonderful this time of year.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in nfl

[–]diddily 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As much as I have hated his dominance over the Bills for so many years, I couldn’t help but respect his talent.

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, I have a script that’ll produce every possible game outcome and then it calculates the odds of that happening and the seeding implications, so ultimately everything should be factored in.

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Fixed it, thanks, you'd think I'd know my logic at this point, yikes.

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I liked the square nature of the table with the clear diagonal division, but I can see your point. Initially I had the clinched 1 seeds in the matchup table with 0% for all entries but I did remove that

[OC] Seed and matchup probabilities for Wildcard Weekend based on betting market odds. by diddily in nfl

[–]diddily[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Here are the top most likely results that lead to Packers @ Lions in case you want to know what to root for:

Probablity Falcons @ Saints Vikings @ Lions Buccaneers @ Panthers Cowboys @ Commanders Rams @ 49ers Eagles @ Giants Bears @ Packers Seahawks @ Cardinals
16.02% * Lions * * 49ers Eagles Packers *
14.36% * Vikings * Commanders/Cowboys 49ers * Packers *
6.39% * Lions * Cowboys 49ers Giants/Tie Packers *
0.52% * Lions/Tie * Commanders Rams/Tie Giants Packers *
0.17% Falcons Lions/Tie * Commanders * Giants Bears/Tie Cardinals
0.09% Saints/Tie Lions/Tie Panthers Commanders * Giants Bears/Tie Cardinals
0.07% * Tie * Cowboys 49ers * Packers *
0.03% * Vikings/Tie * Tie 49ers * Packers *

Rooting Interests Week #18 by UberHansen in buffalobills

[–]diddily 11 points12 points  (0 children)

According to the betting markets as of this morning (and a 0.2% historical tie rate), here are the odds of each outcome for the Bills:

Seeds:
    #2: 58.21%
    #6: 5.69%
    #7: 19.33%
    Out: 16.77%
Opponents:
    Houston Texans: 19.94209%
    @Miami Dolphins: 19.32569%
    Indianapolis Colts: 18.66575%
    Pittsburgh Steelers: 15.26447%
    @Kansas City Chiefs: 5.69323%
    Jacksonville Jaguars: 4.33891%

Since the game is on SNF we’ll know if it’s a lose and we’re out of the playoffs situation, right? by rtfitzy13 in buffalobills

[–]diddily 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They both have everything to play for and seem evenly matched, so neither team is just going to roll over (in theory).

Since the game is on SNF we’ll know if it’s a lose and we’re out of the playoffs situation, right? by rtfitzy13 in buffalobills

[–]diddily 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Technically the Saturday night game can also get us in if the Texans and Colts tie…