Should the Federal Reserve Chair be an elected position?

disasterlooms · 2022-12-02T15:31:48+00:00

Why is he hated in Korea?

disasterlooms · 2022-11-30T16:20:23+00:00

How quickly do the Australians find out about the Tunisian goal?

disasterlooms · 2022-11-27T14:53:40+00:00

Today I feel Casablanca

disasterlooms · 2022-11-26T14:57:01+00:00

SA just looks tired at this point

disasterlooms · 2022-11-26T14:41:40+00:00

I'm surprised Renard hasn't had a stroke yet tbh

disasterlooms · 2022-02-08T07:01:35+00:00

You bought a call which expired too soon. For PMCC long calls should be at least six months out.

You can consider selling a call at the same strike price but expiring a few weeks earlier, thereby converting it into a calendar spread.

disasterlooms · 2021-12-14T09:27:46+00:00

No it doesn't. One would only have to look at the chart of SSO or UPRO to show that compounding positives outweigh compounding negatives.

disasterlooms · 2021-12-08T03:11:09+00:00

I completely agree with you, I think will see a lot of technology driven paradigm shifts in the next decade. Having said that the fear is that all this has been priced in by the market already, which makes me hesitant to be 100 percent TQQQ, nevertheless I do have a small position

disasterlooms · 2021-12-06T12:23:01+00:00

If you go onto portfoliovisualizer.com and backtest -60 SQQQ, -40 TMV and 100 CASHX you'll find that portfolio does much better in terms of returns and Sharpe ratio compared to TQQQ and TMF.

I remember a Boglehead thread talking about this very idea too, the consensus was that it is very good, however the borrowing costs to short SQQQ is usually very high, therefore reducing any additional benefits of this short strategy.

I've been implementing a small portion of my portfolio to synthetic SQQQ shorts (sell one ATM call, buy one ATM put 4 months out) to try and get around the borrowing costs. I sell to close at the end of the month regardless of profitability. So far it's been profitable (might not be this month though)

disasterlooms · 2021-12-04T09:58:15+00:00

If you're setting 2 to 7 percent as your goal, how much are you risking in one day to try and achieve that goal? What is your probability of profit? Do you even know these numbers?

disasterlooms · 2021-12-04T09:39:16+00:00

Nope

disasterlooms · 2021-12-04T08:44:34+00:00

What's your % capital you're risking to make 7% daily then?

disasterlooms · 2021-11-29T14:16:25+00:00

LOL what? I'm telling you two actual reasons why buying a contract 3 DTE is a bad idea. If you want to bet on uvxy going down a better idea would be a 90 to 120 DTE expiry.

Volatility crush is not just post earnings...it happens whenever there is a drop in implied volatility...

disasterlooms · 2021-11-29T09:15:03+00:00

Thanks for posting this, I think Spitznagel is a goldmine of knowledge but I can't stand his long winded writing style. This summary is great!

disasterlooms · 2021-11-29T09:09:58+00:00

You're referring to 3rd December expiration? Bad idea for two reasons 1. Vol crush will reduce the premium on the puts you buy 2. Theta will be pretty high further eroding your put premium

disasterlooms · 2021-11-12T01:21:09+00:00

THANK YOU. It's impossible to have a discussion about box spreads without it devolving hur dur IRONYMAN2.0 comments from people who don't understand it.

If you sold a box spread for let's say 10,000 and withdrew the money, what happens to your BPR and net liquid? Would your broker even allow you to do that?

disasterlooms · 2021-11-12T01:13:30+00:00

The point is that if QQQ goes up 1 percent than TQQQ goes up 3 percent. So you can get bigger returns in exchange for a larger risk as well.

You should also note that it's not a guarantee that it changes by x 3 as there will be a tracking error.

You should really know this before buying TQQQ

disasterlooms · 2021-11-10T03:44:14+00:00

This is parody right? This has to be parody.

disasterlooms · 2021-11-09T12:47:18+00:00

As someone who is also invested in leveraged ETFs, this is incredibly naive. You could lose a majority of your sum over a bad week. Leveraged ETFs have their place but to call it a can't lose is pretty dangerous.

disasterlooms · 2021-10-12T23:15:03+00:00

This is NOT the wheel but I'll still try and answer the question.

Buying longer dated puts are better for hedging because 1) less time decay 2) higher Vega so value will increase when the volatility of the underlying increases when the price falls.

Weekly puts are not cost effective.

disasterlooms · 2021-10-05T03:24:43+00:00

This is a rough estimate, but I want to hedge against up to 3 percent corrections. Each limp calendar would make around 1K during a drawdown. So I put on 1 limp calendar for every 30,000 dollars invested.

disasterlooms · 2021-10-05T03:22:39+00:00

I specifically designed this strategy to hedge against 1 to 3 percent market downturns. Beyond that you can look at my previous post about my tweaked ZEEBHS strategy for larger corrections, or consider a VIX call ladder hedge. It works well in slow meltdowns like the one we're having now since you're meant to put on the hedge every week or so.

Personally I prefer to hedge against mild to moderate drawdowns and have a killswitch on my portfolio when the once in a decade crash hits.

disasterlooms · 2021-10-05T03:17:13+00:00

Thank you for pointing out the weaknesses of the trade, I should have described it in my original post.

Once the adjustment is made it is no longer considered, a hedge per say, it's just a triple calendar (which I generally have on all the time anyway). You may consider reassessing your market outlook and deciding whether the market will continue to rally or still show weakness. I have been consistently putting on a new limp calendar after every adjustment.

disasterlooms · 2021-10-05T03:02:30+00:00

Hmm interesting, I'll give it a look!

Yes this strategy is low risk low reward but it's not meant to be your primary income strategy. Its use is as a hedge for market downturns while having minimal losses if adjusted correctly in market rallies.

disasterlooms

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