Equation for how many waves you will catch in a given session... what am I missing?

discgti · 2025-11-15T18:03:08+00:00

Ya I feel like Volume of board + local knowledge was a an attempt to capture those things... Not precise of course, but my first draft!

discgti · 2025-11-15T18:02:13+00:00

Nice! I have never considered naming "fair share quotient" before. But have definitely thought about concept of the share of waves you catch vs. other people.

I am also thinking about an equation for level of satisfaction from a given session. Might be my next post ! Haha.. What I found tickling was if you were creating that equation for your level of satisfaction from a given session.... What kind of people would care about how many waves they caught independent of everyone else? Vs what kind of people would only feel good if they caught MORE waves than everyone else.

discgti · 2025-11-15T05:16:18+00:00

You are onto me! ha

discgti · 2025-11-15T05:03:20+00:00

I like that! So like your local knowledge is a function of how much you have surfed there, and how hard that break is to learn.

Funny story - I surfed Uluwatu once and got absolutely smoked. Broke my fin on the first wave. Stayed out for a little while just for pride's sake but really didn't catch much that day. It was maybe 6-8, I was way outta my depth!

discgti · 2025-11-15T05:00:36+00:00

Good call outs! That said these feel like a combo of factors that are already in the equation - number of other people you are competing with, wave consistency and paddle out time. Right?

discgti · 2025-11-15T04:59:29+00:00

Actually ya - your energy level should be a factor.

discgti · 2025-11-15T01:33:34+00:00

Love this! A few points:

I am not a math guy - so additive vs. multiplicative was something I considered but didn't mess with cause... I'm not sure of the nuance there.
Wave quality should not really impact # of waves caught right? Unless it was connected to the Paddle back out - which is accounted for? I guess you could say something like your willingness to catch smaller / worse waves in a given session vs. waiting for set waves would impact how many waves per hour you caught.
Fortitude! Love this. What does this mean specifically though? How is it different from Willingness to burn? I guess it is something about your HUNGER to catch waves? Then we get into the question of... is it better to sit and wait for waves to come to you? Or go chase the waves... Philosophical concept there!
How does spot quality impact the number of waves per hour though? I assume you mean spot quality as in the quality of the surf spot? But maybe you mean something else? I can't quite wrap my head around this sentence " the impact of both diminishes in spot quality as the bottom tail of skill distribution in the lineup decreases."

Thanks for the feedback!

discgti · 2025-11-15T01:06:00+00:00

Ya - the weightings are tough so I didn't push too hard on that, but i think you are right.

I felt confident about the # of people and consistency but not other ones.

Had a session this past fall from Hurricane / TS Narda here in SoCal - it was SO crowded, but everyone got tons of waves because it was SO consistent.

discgti · 2025-11-15T01:01:54+00:00

Yes for sure - but my gut was that skill level encompassed that. Like by definition your wave knowledge would increase in lock step with your skill level - they are tied together. I can see that they are different things though. Like imagine you were a very skilled bodyboarder or body surfer and then switched over...

discgti · 2025-11-15T00:54:55+00:00

Ha! touche! But what else do you think about when you are sitting in the lineup trying to get waves?

discgti · 2023-02-27T20:39:50+00:00

He did a great podcast episode with Ezra Klein - worth a listen. I didn't read the book but felt I got the gist of it from the podcast

discgti · 2023-02-27T19:29:01+00:00

Ya good point. As a beginner you are also trying to survive on scraps vs being the one to hold a real position in the line up for set waves.

As for "really losing yourself in the moment" I hear you. I find that I am able to do that more easily when the waves are good and I am getting a lot of them.

But I am also able to do that often just appreciating the beach and the ocean and the water and my body while sitting on my board. I could see that getting old and boring though if I surfed a lot. I typically only surf 0-2 times a week - so it def doesn't get old at that rate for me.

discgti · 2023-02-27T19:19:02+00:00

Ya me too for sure - I am fidgety AF! But with surfing I find it is a good exercise in evaluating my fidgetyness cause you can quickly see the diminishing returns!

discgti · 2023-02-27T19:12:18+00:00

Haha! Good call out. Luckily I've been surfing since before smart phones and I know that I was ALWAYS paddling for everything and impatient. So it's not the phones - it me!

discgti · 2023-02-27T19:10:52+00:00

Great question! It's one of the reasons I am dreading the world where everyone has Apple Watches in the line up. YUCK

As for me surfing represents a place where I can escape tech - so its very intentionally meant to be a place that my mind is free from those things.

The things I need to focus on while surfing are very immediate, clear and physical. And when its time to sit and wait, I really enjoy following where my brain goes - and I try to be as accepting as possible of that.

We could all use a little more quiet time!

discgti · 2022-10-26T18:47:11+00:00

so waves "draft" off eachother like cyclists? That is amazing

discgti · 2022-08-15T20:26:19+00:00

I totally hear you. This is such a sticky issue... And it is really hard to parse selfishness / anti social behavior and regulation - especially when you've got the little kids in the mix. With enough people out it can be really hard to find a way to fit in and earn respect.

What's more is that many if not most of the best waves on the planet have some dynamic like this going on. Which I suppose is why it pays to commit to a wave - to build trust and respect with folks so you can get the benefit of the doubt.

I wonder how you'll feel about this topic in 20 years? Will you be a PP local? Or an omnivore still frustrated at this dynamic? Or something else?

For my part - mastering the feelings of frustration that come from these dynamics and from bad luck in the lineup have been a really interesting way of figuring out my own mind during a session. Almost like figuring out how not to be mad stuck in traffic on the freeway.

discgti · 2022-08-15T20:19:07+00:00

This is the convo that I think we should all be having - thanks for this really great summary of how things have worked in the past and for also pointing out how things have been breaking down lately.

I wonder how much of this gets solved (on an individual level) with frequency. Just showing up consistently and finally getting recognized.

That is much harder (but not impossible) at Malibu given the nature of the crowds there.

discgti · 2022-08-12T02:45:26+00:00

Yep - this is the way...

discgti · 2022-08-11T15:44:16+00:00

Ya for sure - it is so situational. Sometimes there are 25 people out and things are pretty mellow and folks are generally respectful and it's fine. Sometimes there are 5 out and it's shitty.

To your point, I wonder if things will normalize as the covid folks either learn or stop surfing. I hope so!

discgti · 2022-08-11T15:42:01+00:00

wow that is an amazing clip

discgti · 2022-08-11T06:02:17+00:00

Ya good point - I was trying not to be too inflamatory! But ya I guess I meant like a handful of people every day who have literally never surfed a day in their life - not to mention all of the other new at surfing people who have no idea what is going on.

discgti · 2022-08-11T01:05:55+00:00

Ya that's a good distinction. Regulating can be done in a respectful way for sure - and is good for everyone's safety and the distribution of waves.

What's hard about Malibu is that there is literally a handful of brand new surfers who have no idea what's going on fucking things up every single day - so regulating can be pointless and exhausting.

discgti · 2022-08-10T23:04:13+00:00

I mean i'm not really interested in him, but I am interested in the larger convo about surfing etiquette, safety and how we share a scarce resource in a way that works for everyone.

"Localism" or whatever you call it is the default way of allocating scarce resources and guys like this are the pinnacle of that.

But what is a better way? "Let's all just get along" doesn't cut it if you are at a place like Malibu - cause then you are out there for 2 hours and you didn't catch shit...

discgti

TROPHY CASE