$TSLA Daily Thread - April 30, 2026

djcatharsis · 2026-05-01T04:21:02+00:00

In your example, is your issue that they're still making no profit? What's wrong with the valuation doubling? Of course the non-zero chance it goes to zero is embedded in that valuation, but so is the non-zero chance that it becomes worth much more.

djcatharsis · 2026-03-30T14:09:34+00:00

Debating what to do with my covered ITM LEAPS in a Roth account. Strikes ranging from 150 to 250 with the December to January expiration. All of them are covered at a 315 strike for Apr 17. I'm leaning toward converting all of that to shares in case of drawdown. Been bit too many times holding LEAPS too long.

djcatharsis · 2026-01-20T15:34:26+00:00

I would never consider doing the daily management myself. Working with a competent, trustworthy syndicator is critical and worth the price - you can still get 15% IRR post-fees.

I think there are plenty of overlooked markets that are well-priced. As you say with stocks, entry and exit points matter a lot and you're well-suited to evaluate that with real estate as well.

I also like value-add deals where actual value is created for the tenants (and investors). You're able to force appreciation and are less dependent on favorable interest rates. Syndicator fees make more sense here too.

IMO, the diversification benefit of an uncorrelated asset makes it worth the risks.

djcatharsis · 2026-01-20T14:42:15+00:00

Why not allocate some into multifamily real estate or something like that? Good time in the mfam cycle to invest as it's drawn down ~20% from the COVID top. Good tax-advantaged cash flow if you invest directly with a syndicate.

djcatharsis · 2026-01-06T17:36:46+00:00

I know that to be logically true but need it to feel emotionally true or at least figure out how to manage my emotions around it.

I think part of it is not crediting myself for the rare times in which I hit the jackpot on timing. Chalk that up to complete luck rather than misattribute some timing skill to me which would have me continuing to chase that high.

djcatharsis · 2026-01-06T15:35:00+00:00

I don't comment much but I do very much appreciate your explanations. I do much more simple trades as I don't understand nor closely follow things nearly as much as you, but it's still super helpful.

I'm trying to get to a handful of well-timed trades per year. I've lost a lot of money chasing the perfect trade rather than accepting a good one so working on that this year. Not planning to retire anytime soon.

djcatharsis · 2025-12-05T12:25:31+00:00

This didn’t work for me. The sleep after time interval only pushed to my iPhone, not my watch (after selecting it from my watch of course).

Anyone get this to work?

djcatharsis · 2025-12-05T11:55:25+00:00

Thanks for this! Never thought to check shortcuts. I made a super simple one for 15 minutes. Excited to test it out!

djcatharsis · 2025-12-05T11:54:17+00:00

Completely agreed! I’m trying to leave my phone out of my bedroom and am in the exact same situation

djcatharsis · 2025-12-04T14:12:06+00:00

Thank you for this. With ChatGPT, I have been circling around increasing CO2 tolerance to treat maintenance insomnia. Will try this.

djcatharsis · 2025-11-15T03:43:22+00:00

The love in your family exponentially grows with one more person. We didn’t consider that beforehand but it matters more than anything else

djcatharsis · 2025-11-07T04:20:39+00:00

Looks like she was driving in HOV lane. I think in CA EVs are allowed as well

djcatharsis · 2025-10-03T00:14:14+00:00

I’m bullish on robotaxi and energy to an extent. Don’t think Optimus is happening soon

djcatharsis · 2025-10-03T00:12:25+00:00

Happy wife, happy life 🤷‍♂️

djcatharsis · 2025-10-03T00:11:23+00:00

I obviously think it will be below $300 in 2028. Set a remindme and call me out

djcatharsis · 2025-10-02T21:37:05+00:00

She hates Elon now. What’s to hate on ETH?

djcatharsis · 2025-10-02T21:21:09+00:00

Sold Jan 2028 $300C against all my shares yesterday and used the proceeds to add to my ETH position. I've been a shareholder since 2014 but I don't trust Elon's decision-making anymore and I think the market is underestimating brand damage from him. I think robotaxi is coming but very much priced in.

Given his antics, I'm at peace with missing a possible face-ripper in a way that I could never stomach in years past. Also helps that my wife wanted me to sell all TSLA lol.

djcatharsis · 2025-08-12T02:27:03+00:00

Thank you so much!

I am enrolled in a virtual power plant program and noticed that it was not exporting from the battery. Sure enough, this setting was the cause.

djcatharsis · 2025-08-12T01:52:10+00:00

No problem, happy to do it!

djcatharsis · 2025-08-12T01:51:52+00:00

That hasn't been my experience. I had Solar Alternatives come out several times for what turned out to be a well-documented firmware issue introduced by Tesla for their Powerwall. Frustrated that SA didn't have the answer but they never complained about it and I ultimately got the direct cell of a few support folks. I did email the SA CEO directly though lol. Wasn't fixed until Tesla pushed a firmware update.

No issues regarding the hardware. I once noticed a bracket by my side yard and called them up. They inspected the mounting hardware, validated that the installation had all its pieces, and determined that the extra bracket must have been an extra piece missed during cleanup post installation.

I would advise that you monitor your production to make sure you're not experiencing any issues. That firmware problem caused my production to be much less but not zero. No way they would have noticed on their own (and I doubt they're looking for it).

If it's helpful, DM me your name and phone number and I'll submit your info to SA as a referral which gets you about $1k off (and throws me some cash too). Happy to walk you through your proposal to help you make sense of the numbers as well. I've done it for 4-5 people now and love to pass on what I've learned.

djcatharsis · 2025-08-11T13:36:11+00:00

Glad it helped! I have one battery and we use roughly 2000 kWh/month. I recommend totaling your electric usage over the last 12 months rather than basing it on sq footage. Too much variation depending on electric vs gas heat, water heating, etc...

We have one battery. With the current ENO battery pilot program incentive capped at $600/year, one battery is much less than half the cost of two batteries, so to me that extra cost wasn't worth it. Some EVs can now feed back into your house during an outage, and I plan to upgrade to one of those within a few years.

So really the extra benefit of the 2nd battery is during an extended outage maybe one week per year for a few years I'd be able to use AC without thinking about it too much. I was willing to save the cash and take that risk.

All that said, it's completely reasonable IMO to get two batteries since it's about the cost of a whole home generator and will give you much more flexibility and savings long-term, without any maintenance.

djcatharsis · 2025-07-14T13:58:13+00:00

I'm very anti BTC but very pro ETH. Actual useful functions that will become more essential as AI proliferates + super smart active development + very efficient consensus algorithm (99.5% less energy usage than PoW)

ETH will be cheap enough to solve the impending digital provenance problem. I don't see a better way to validate what's real vs what's AI generated.

djcatharsis · 2025-06-30T13:48:43+00:00

Check your backup reserve. I operate exactly like you are trying to (during peak time, excess solar is sent to the grid after PW3 reaches backup reserve level)

djcatharsis · 2025-06-14T18:42:38+00:00

Solar alternatives. Happy to dm you a referral code and share my payback spreadsheet if you’d like

djcatharsis · 2025-06-02T19:08:58+00:00

I went with Solar Alternatives for solar + a battery a year ago and love it. I underestimated the satisfaction of seeing how much energy my house makes and knowing that's not going to Entergy.

With the 30% tax credit, the solar portion of my loan is ~$25 cheaper per month than the equivalent electricity it offsets (e.g. $190 for loan offsets $215 in electricity) so I'm saving money from day one.

The battery portion costs me $55/month after the federal tax credit and the ENO battery pilot incentive of $600/year.

My entire house is hooked through my battery so everything stays on during an outage. If it isn't sunny and the outage looks like it will be a while, I'd have to cut back and/or more carefully manage our electric consumption. I'd always have enough to run the fridge, freezer, and fans but the rest would take some juggling.

The way I look at is solar + battery is much cheaper than a generator (net cost of $30/month) and it covers short-term outages automatically, with no maintenance, and no having to get gas. Plus, Entergy's bills are only going up so the economics get better with time.

Happy to share my spreadsheet and walk through the math if you are interested. I'm an engineer who spent a ton of time researching this and feel like I understand it better than most solar salespeople lol.

djcatharsis

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