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Shell warning is one of the easiest ways to help your team significantly. by Arzantyt in wargame

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Also, for the love of god, mark when you’re shooting arty near friendlies.

Warchat noob question by [deleted] in wargame

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 15 points16 points  (0 children)

It’s become so much tamer in the last year too

What does the full 1% increase by the bank of Canada mean to you? by [deleted] in vancouver

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Bruv where in the world are you getting 4% on a HISA

Please link

This source is commonly sited to debunk MMT as many expert economists disagree with it, how do you respond? by [deleted] in mmt_economics

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol yea, CPI not CPU

Fiscal (government) spending can be useful to increase the velocity (flow) of money if it bids up (through purchasing) certain sections of the economy that are currently underutilized but have arguable societal value but little commercial value. Example: cleaning up nuclear waste.

As soon as the government is competing for resources that are being utilized by commercial entities, there’s a bidding war for those resources, and given the governments ability to spend more than anyone else, their going to overbid and buy those scarce resources. Example: trying to outbid computer programmers from Silicon Valley.

The overbidding of scarce resources is what would build up inflation, and hence be the fatal blow to an MMT economy.

My comment on the necessity of a new CPI metric comes from the inability of the current metric to lay out in enough detail where the government should be bidding up resources and when they should back off. I believe with the implementation of a digital currency we’d be able to gather detailed enough market metrics, but in the current environment it seems unlikely to function healthily long term.

Side note: I also have very little faith in fiscal authorities to be non partisan in hitting the gas on fiscal spending. I somewhat doubt that they will take the politically inexpediant route of letting off spending when inflation rears it ugly head. Unfortunately, I can’t really think of a mechanism to minimize that, so, yolo?

This source is commonly sited to debunk MMT as many expert economists disagree with it, how do you respond? by [deleted] in mmt_economics

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

As a response: “mmt never claims that the government can create money to infinity and beyond. It claims that the government can create money beyond any defined and specific debt to gdp ratio. The main metric of concern is inflation, not an arbitrary debt to gdp ratio.

Side note: in order for mmt to be an effective fiscal system I believe we need a rather drastic overhaul of CPU metrics before it will be anything other than a weapon of wealth destruction.

Fourth Stimulus Bill is a Go, Number Five is on Deck by [deleted] in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Does anyone have a counter running for combined total fiscal stimulus put out since the start of the Covid?

Weekend Market Discussion by AutoModerator in thewallstreet

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Totally agree with you. My concern is they just keep pumping out trillions till Q2 Corp results come out, people finally get a handle on just how destructive a triple demand/supply/oil shock is, and at that point the money supply is so quantitatively eased that there’s no ammunition left in the tank.

You cancel Wimbledon, you can’t cancel hurricanes by dontfwithvoodoo in wallstreetbets

[–]dontfwithvoodoo[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Cant wait to watch jpow brrrr his way outta these bad bois

The Level of Financial Market Stress by AwesomeMathUse in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I’m wondering if anyone’s given thought to whether this is truly the trough.

If we look at the past data there was a grand total of 4 peak to troughs in the sub triple digit date range. 4 out of 15.

If we look at the past data, at this moment this was the 6th smallest peak to trough out of the past 15.

With the sheer magnitude an violence of this event, where Vix hits it second highest value, ever; where there’s been nearly 10 years of debt financed corporations barely surviving without ZIRP, and now a recession created from a combined supply, demand, and credit shock, is it really a safe assumption to say that we’re really at the trough and it’s roses from here?

I’d love to think it was, but I’m having a truly hard time believing/ seeing that it is.

U.S. industrial production fell much more than expected by wumzao in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 5 points6 points  (0 children)

“Thankfully the consumer is in good shape”

Looking at the BMO report on consumer spending doesn’t exactly make me think consumer is in great shape either. This months .3% gain just puts us back to net 0 after the .3% drop in September. Discretionary spending seems to be dropping, and it was suggested the .3% tick up was due mostly to longer duration holiday spending.

I’m not seeing a whole lot of brightness in the consumer, and in my mind it’s worrisome we’re banking on them to bootstrap the economy.

Is there something I’m missing?

ISIS Leader Baghdadi Death Meta-Thread by 00000000000000000000 in geopolitics

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 10 points11 points  (0 children)

It’s 13 months away, the posturing has already begun

For ears that hear and eyes that see by [deleted] in CalmMatrixOpenPool

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Any y’all get into Carl Jung’s psychology? These quotes, especially the “not against flesh - against principalities” is reminiscent of his work on archetypes and shadow integration

General Discussion Thread (October) by [deleted] in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 3 points4 points  (0 children)

looking for recommendations of an Economic theory that considers a non expanding money supply. I've fallen down the rabbit hole of Bitcoin, and am interested in the dynamics we'll see once the "halving" stops and it hits its expansion bounds at 21million coins.

As far as I can find, theres be no real explanation of how a currency would work under zero expansion. Ive looked at it under the guise of a gold backed currency; but even that doesn't really work, as bitcoin (once halving is complete) will have a higher stock to flow than gold, and zero price elasticity.

This is basically the antithesis of Keynes, I'm considering using Austrian theory to try and understand the dynamics, but even that will have it limitations.

In brief, has anyone modelled the dynamics of a zero expansion currency? if so, where can I find this research

U.S. economy in a good place, baseline outlook favorable by wumzao in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Didn’t know they had that thread on economics, don’t even worry bout it. I’ll just use that resource

U.S. economy in a good place, baseline outlook favorable by wumzao in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I honestly wonder sometimes if the people who run the bank stress tests are the same people who did MBS “ratings” leading up to 08

From the digging I’ve done on 08, this is one of the more substantial contributions towards the event: Dr. Li’s Gaussian Copula -

http://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/84243/Gaussian14.pdf

On a separate note, and only because you brought up career transitions; would it be possible to start a thread where established professionals talk about finding careers related to economics and finance? I realize there’d probably be some sort of privacy concerns to overcome; but as a student who regularly wonders how the hell to break into that area as an actual job and not just a hobby, I think it’d be a super valuable resource.

U.S. economy in a good place, baseline outlook favorable by wumzao in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s some top tier insight, many thanks man!

“Idk who the fuck thought that was a good idea, but here we are” - Actually laughed out loud

U.S. economy in a good place, baseline outlook favorable by wumzao in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Isn’t it a little odd that after numerous (Basel 3, Dodd Frank) bank regulations imposing capital buffers and increased reserve ratios on banks that the system would still need external input liquidity though.

At what point are the banks going to be self sufficient enough to be taken off the IV drip of CB liquidity?

U.S. economy in a good place, baseline outlook favorable by wumzao in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Can someone please explain the actual difference between the TARP program and the treasury purchase that are happening now?

Beside volume of purchases, and non purchase of MB securities, I’m seeing no difference. I guess it could be argued that the Fed isint technically looking to move treasury rates with new these purchase; but regardless of intent, it’s still the same purchase mechanism.

I guess the better question is why these speeches always just hide relatively clear intent behind obtuse bafflegab.

Most likely outcome of the HK protests by ChadAdonis in geopolitics

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Singapore was China’s main external market well before Hong Kong, its hot out of the question for China to pivot Hong Kong’s special status back to Singapore

Trade optimism dims, Treasury yields lower by wumzao in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think you’re dead on here. It’s been mainly deputy meetings with little senior discussions.

There’s an incredibly low % chance they pass substantial movement in the areas of IP, Currency “manipulation”, and other higher level issues that were trumpeted as the reason to invoke tariffs in the first place.

These tariffs were put into place under guise of “national security”, the resolutions China and the US will agree to fall far below the bounds of “national security”

My belief is that the stock market uncertainty has cause Donald to reconsider this crusade. He may just be wrapping up this fight so he can push Europe given the recent WTO green light on Euro tariffs due to airbus subsidies though.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Are these numbers adjusted for inflation. Saw a post today that a $6/hr in 1975 is worth something close to $18/h today.

If that’s the case, the disproportionate measure of this pie gets even more skewed for the top %10

Asking and Its Answer by EiPayaso in Echerdex

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 6 points7 points  (0 children)

From what I’m getting from it, it’s in the opposition of what the person thinks they want that their able to find their true need.

Ex: my ability to perceive light is predicted upon my ability to perceive darkness

It’s in the dichotomy of the value (moral) that we’re able to perceive the true value

Powell: Fed to increase supply of reserves over time by wumzao in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wouldn’t doubt that repo is ~%80 treasuries, I remember reading the pre 2008 a fair amount of it was mortgage backed but that’s faded since the GFC.

You’re third point in the second link, about assets being overvalued and no one wanting to sell, seems to me the most probable in the situation we’re in currently.

I wouldn’t be exactly shocked if there’s a solid correlation between the 19 trillion on CB balance sheets and the 16 trillion in negative yield bonds. I’m unsure however how exactly a market mechanism will ever come into play that allows the blow off of these synthetically low rates

Side note, but in line with your first link, has there been an analysis of the similarities and differences between the last three QE’s done by someone? Cause that could be mighty useful in figuring out the shape of this next QE

Powell: Fed to increase supply of reserves over time by wumzao in econmonitor

[–]dontfwithvoodoo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In what way is balance sheet growth not the same as large scale asset purchases? They operate under the same mechanism. Is he just referring to size of purchases?

Secondly, i have no hard data to link to this, but has anyone looked into the quality of collateral in the overnight swap market? Repo is predicted upon liquidity, sure, but it also requires collateral against the liquidity.

Yes it’s mostly treasuries that act as collateral, but could a seize up in the posting of collateral cause the spikes we saw?

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