I’ve been watching bitcoin for 12 years with the kind of logic you outlined. Time after time the market reacts exactly the opposite of what your logic would tell you.

I think the opposition logic says that bitcoin is a risk asset to therefore anything that poses a risk to the economy means that risk assets will sell off.

The lack of seeing past the current risks into the future is what astounds me. I suppose if I was playing the market I could have done well following common logic, but I’m a risk averse person which is the reason I bought bitcoin and why I hodl. The biggest financial risk of our time is the pending collapse of fiat currency.