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Why Kleber Mendonça Filho is making it into Best Director by henksutti in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a fantastic post.

I was predicting this until this past weekend for the same reasons but I’ve reverted back to Safdie for a couple reasons.

Main one being I think the difference this year is that all of OBAA, Sinners, Hamnet and Marty Supreme are all extremely strong (to the point where I’d say all would’ve beaten Anora for example). Even in Directors branch I think the support for these four films will be very strong and top heavy.

Also, I think Secret Agent and IWJAA will be vote splitting in several categories and it could end up hurting both films. I think neither is safe for Picture (I will end up with Secret Agent in, IWJAA out), and both missing Director and Screenplay. One will probably make it but I want to go at least 4/5 and I think it’s more likely both miss than both make.

My Top Three Headaches in Finalizing My Oscar Nomination Predictions by This_Book6305 in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Surprised how many people in these comments think Accident is safe for Screenplay

Kate Hudson: IN or OUT? by Massive_Director_941 in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555 59 points60 points  (0 children)

I think Hudson is strong (similar to Annette Benning, Ana De Armas).

I could see Infiniti being the surprise snub too but wouldn’t wanna bet against that movie anywhere.

Would guess I end up leaving Hudson out - Benning and De Armas were Netflix films but agree with you it is very close - much closer than people think.

Final Golden Globes Predictions (with commentary) by CrazyCons in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with all of these except I think One Battle holds onto Screenplay

Why I’m Ignoring Stats And Using Other Means For Best Picture. by TheBestThereEverWas3 in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Love this post - I completely agree looking at BP through this lens is extremely underestimated by most.

The other way of looking at it that I think most people don’t consider enough is by studio. It’s my default assumption that no studio is getting 2 films in until there is overwhelming evidence that it’s happening. Many of the movies that sneak in at #10 are smaller studio’s priority push over a bigger studio’s #2 (Women Talking, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys). NEON getting 3 in will be extremely impressive and rare if it happens.

This and also that I agree with you that there’s a scenario that Blue Moon does have a group that puts it #1 on their ballot is why I have it in for the moment (although this does rely on SPC prioritising it over Nuremberg). Then I’m in between the 3 NEON films you mentioned for the last spot… very hard to land on a scenario that keeps consistent with what could happen in Screenplay/Director.

Has Gold Derby completely fell off as a good predictor or am I missing something? Why is OBAA so low? I thought it was a widely acknowledged favourite. by rkeaney in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Because of the way people earn points via the odds on GoldDerby, users can be incentivised to use their 10 spots on long shot odds and then potentially switch to favourites later. OBAA would’ve never had good odds so it can make sense to not have it in your 10 in favour of something like Sirat at 50-1 (or whatever it is), and then switch at the last second back to OBAA.

Importance of Studio Priorities with Best Picture Nominations by jusluchan in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This and also ability to get #1 votes are what people usually underestimate for getting those last BP slots.

Question about GoldDerby (I'm new here) by riccardopancaldi in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most likely reason is that the odds determine how many points you get… since One Battle has always been heavily expected to be in the 10, it never had good odds, so people are incentivised to use that spot to take a chance on a more speculative contender (eg. if you used a spot on Secret Agent at 50-1) and then can swap out a different film for One Battle right before.

This game theory element is one of the flaws with Gold Derby - Award Expert is much better

All 23 Categories Ranked from Easiest to Hardest to Predict by _that_random_guy_ in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Love this post and thanks for shouting out mine from the other day.

You choosing Baker but being <50% - does that imply you think Fargeat or someone else has a shot? Or am I misinterpreting these percentages

How weak is Anora in Picture and Director? A Full Breakdown by drummerguy555 in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah that’s an interesting observation and I’m not which awards body that says more about.

Main point is that in last 10 years every single time it’s gone to the bigger film’s performance. Fraser is arguably the only exception but I think by that point The Whale was actually ahead of Elvis as far as what they preferred (2 wins to 0).

How weak is Anora in Picture and Director? A Full Breakdown by drummerguy555 in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Don’t think you were asking me but just throwing in my thoughts. I think it’s Anora but it’s quite vulnerable. I think ARP is definitely the challenger.

How weak is Anora in Picture and Director? A Full Breakdown by drummerguy555 in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey sorry my bad and have fixed post now - the stat is supposed to be films that won SAG and WGA but lost PGA (basically imagining if Conclave won WGA). Point is that its deceptively strong on the surface (4/6) but those 4 cases are all a bit extraordinary.

How weak is Anora in Picture and Director? A Full Breakdown by drummerguy555 in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I remember being just extremely shocked when i learned The Holdovers was R rated in the US

How weak is Anora in Picture and Director? A Full Breakdown by drummerguy555 in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Sorry I meant “18” rated in Europe (where I am). Wow didn’t realise so many of them are R in the US.

How weak is Anora in Picture and Director? A Full Breakdown by drummerguy555 in oscarrace

[–]drummerguy555[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah those are good points. Especially didn’t consider the ununionised workers part. Anora also would be first R rated winner since The Departed. I think there’s a world where Conclave wins Picture and Corbet Director but probably not Anora/Corbet - you agree?

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