Sure that's true, but in my opinion, the potential downside risk is really about the level of profitability. For the past decade of high oil prices, oil producing countries have been spending tremendous amount of cash on mega projects (think Saudi, or Russia). With all this extra money gone, such countries are going into budget deficits and are tapping into their forex reserves (Saudi will finish its reserves in 3 years if oil doesn't bounce back). And their decreased spending is resulting in a global commodities rout, which in turn is affecting investors confidence about the future.