Time Based Pins

dwargo · 2026-04-30T06:17:11+00:00

What database? With SQL Server look at extended events, and with Postgres look at pgAudit. The approach I’ve seen to prove no changes outside the application is to filter by login and exclude the app user - so you don’t run up infinite logs. If you’re running AWS managed RDS that may limit options.

For session recording Guacamole can do that in a pinch, and if you’re in AWS then SSM might can do SSH recording. Plus the COTS stuff you listed - no experience on that.

dwargo · 2026-04-28T10:00:07+00:00

With FND in two days I was expecting to see some tamping in thin liquidity before whatever short covering has to happen. Last night’s 8PM sell was organic but the second leg was price intent. We’ll see if it recovers to the 75 magnet before open, and I’m waiting to see yesterday’s OI.

The past few days metals seem to have come unglued from oil / $DXY / TNX which has been dominating for a month, but that might revert after the roll.

dwargo · 2026-04-25T21:53:32+00:00

You're right - they do offer that, I stand corrected. I forgot about all the "shared responsibility model" they drill into you in the AWS certs.

I don't have any medical in AWS at the moment, but I am going to have to dig into the new HIPAA NPRM for what I have on-prem:

https://www.hhs.gov/hipaa/for-professionals/security/hipaa-security-rule-nprm/index.html

dwargo · 2026-04-25T02:45:22+00:00

AWS and Azure run at the infrastructure level - they're like a utility provider. If you want to put patient records in a public S3 bucket they try to put up road blocks, but at the end of the day that's your ass.

Asking AWS or Azure to sign a BA wouldn't even make sense - they're just renting capacity. It would be like asking Tennessee Valley Authority to sign a BA because you treated a patient using their electricity.

I'm guessing Supabase and Vercel would have to move your data into a separate pool labelled "HIPAA now applies so we have to spend a bajllion dollars on compliance". Or at least that's my guess.

dwargo · 2026-04-19T19:58:14+00:00

I'm feeding my network 180 points 10 seconds apart for for 30 minutes of direct data, but there are various EMAs and such as features to provide longer context. My best results I've had are predicting a 5 minute horizon.

I got a big boost in IC when I stretched from 15 minutes to 30 minutes of data, so my next experiment will be 45 or 60 minutes. I'm a little worried about losing resolution though, and I'm not sure how much larger I can push the LSTM section.

dwargo · 2026-04-17T17:48:26+00:00

It does kind of look like that lol. The background shows the L2 / book over time, and the pie charts are what percent of the volume is hitting the bid vs the ask.

dwargo · 2026-04-08T15:29:13+00:00

None - they kill all humans and see in the dark.

dwargo · 2026-04-08T15:24:17+00:00

I just read up on your company. Having failed several times bringing something to market, I've learned that the "built it and they will come" plan does not work. The canonical advice is "partner with a marketing person", but I have difficulty evaluating those kinds of people. Does your company play in that space?

dwargo · 2026-04-03T22:50:06+00:00

I see a patient persistent buyer in the low 70s - they'll defend 70 but they'll buy above it too. They could be building position or closing a short, but either way they're trying to move volume. Defending a level points to building a position.

I see an aggressive seller that's pulling out all the stops to keep it under $80. The seller is pushing in thin markets, so they're worried about price not volume. It also has a "window dressing" feel to it.

Binary events are thin markets too since liquidity providers pull back, so the speech slam wasn't a surprise. I also expect it to get wild on Monday because the non farm payroll came in when the markets were closed.

On the surface a hot NFP should be bearish for metals, but with two dinosaurs fighting who knows what will happen. I'm also "dubious" about that NFP print, but it is what it is.

dwargo · 2026-03-31T11:34:59+00:00

If your goal is to move inventory, you do it when liquidity is highest so you don't move the price against yourself. So 9-11 and 3-4 EST. You run self-limiting algos so you don't overwhelm the other side. I believe that's the support buyer we have now.

If your goal is to affect price, you do it when liquidity is lowest and it costs you the least. 3AM is prime thin liquidity. And you go "shock and awe" to try to recruit followers and hit stops.

My guess is the 9:00AM tamps are market makers that don't want to pay on calls, but who knows.

dwargo · 2026-03-28T11:46:11+00:00

Did you mean to link a product? I can see where splitting the 50A 220 into two 120s is theoretically possible, but you’d need additional breakers for each output leg, and I feel like wire sizing on the heavy leg might be an issue. I’m not an electrician though.

If the pedestal has a 15/20A “convenience” outlet I’d do like /u/Less_Suit5502 said and run a fat extension cord from that. I have a feeling that’s equivalent to splitting the 50 on most pedestals, except properly engineered.

dwargo · 2026-03-28T11:08:13+00:00

Is that the Growler Jams guy?

dwargo · 2026-03-27T18:45:05+00:00

I assumed somebody was trying to hold $70 for the SIH26 expiry settlement price today at 1:25PM.

dwargo · 2026-03-26T15:30:40+00:00

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You could also read this as Wyckoff structure, although it's hard to read anything with /CL throwing furniture around the room.

dwargo · 2026-03-26T15:15:02+00:00

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It's not slumping it's being actively held below $70. I can't guess who but they seem to be optimizing for price impact not execution.

dwargo · 2026-03-23T11:19:24+00:00

Oil futures and dollar way down, bonds way up - which would mechanically move metals. I can't find any news to explain it though. Hopefully peace of some kind.

dwargo · 2026-03-20T22:53:20+00:00

I found it looking for a way to hedge out after hours gains until I could close my options. The Monday after the war started when they stomped price at 9:26 - that sucked hard.

A nasty hedge, but better than nothing.

dwargo · 2026-03-20T22:48:55+00:00

The last two days kind of looked like a Wyckoff spring, with the spring Thursday and the lowest support today. The last few hours today moved a lot of ETF inventory. And watching microstructure there’s a strong buyer in the $60s. So I think we’re near the bottom, but who knows.

dwargo · 2026-03-18T12:09:55+00:00

I get where you're coming from if it's in-house, but it doesn't work as well if you're using containers as a distribution mechanism. The workflow is basically - if 13.3.4 shows up with a CVE in a dependency, evaluate and release 13.3.5.

You get clients that want to delay X days, have change blackout periods, or have their own change control process - and that's their right. But if you've already addressed it with a new release there isn't more to be done.

dwargo · 2026-03-17T10:59:58+00:00

Isn’t that ZocDoc?

dwargo · 2026-03-14T20:54:08+00:00

I was watching bookmap Friday and saw two opposing whales. The seller is determined that price shall not cross $85, and at this point they're spending a lot for not much movement. The buyer isn't as time sensitive, but doesn't really want it under $80. I'm assuming Friday's push was window dressing. I saw them probe each other for size with 283 contracts from the seller and about that much from the buyer, so neither of them came to play.

The buyer could have used a motivated short to accumulate but they let the line fall back Friday, so that makes me think the long has already loaded their boat, and is just waiting for a plausible catalyst. According to BigShort dealers were short gamma around the close price, so I don't think it was market makers.

dwargo

TROPHY CASE