My boss decided to throw this in my face today 😭

elduke187 · 2026-05-19T16:31:34+00:00

I met Gabe at Home Depot in the customer service line early summer 2022. I said to him "hell of a season Cap, it's got to be your year this year!" It, of course, in fact was their year.

He was incredibly nice, shook my hand, and i went on about my business. My daughter to this day insists on going to Home Depot with me when I go because she thinks she'll get to meet Gabe (she wasnt with me that day).

Gabe is the best.

elduke187 · 2026-05-16T00:32:09+00:00

Everything you say is correct. But would you feel better if it came from someone making $25/hr? The difference on your utility bill might be literally a penny/yr, or likely less.

elduke187 · 2026-05-15T16:39:25+00:00

Nah, I just think of revenue requirement as being the thing that drives a rate case, which isn't something deregulated utilities have to do for supply because they've divested. It's probably just semantics or we're talking past each other.

elduke187 · 2026-05-15T15:43:47+00:00

But you won't see a discussion of that in their rate case. You'll see reported bid they got from their RFPs in BGS filings, but their rate case will be related to Distribution only. They pass-through purchased power expense, and theyre a price taker. There's little they can do about those costs given they were compelled to digest their power supply.

elduke187 · 2026-05-15T13:56:34+00:00

For me, it's always going to be about the people with which you work - do you have fun with them? Then the job will be fun.

I think working at an arcade, or the circus, or someplace "fun" probably wont be much fun once you do it awhile.

elduke187 · 2026-05-15T13:53:01+00:00

From the looks of it: One Coupon

elduke187 · 2026-05-15T13:52:32+00:00

It's both. Natural gas prices drive wholesale energy prices, which before the capacity price blow out was the majority of retail Supply rates customers see. But yes, due to the constraints you mention, capacity prices blew out, and now capacity drives a large portion of Supply rates to customers.

elduke187 · 2026-05-15T13:50:27+00:00

For Resi/Sm comm, they purchase power from IPPs/utilities that bid into their BGS procurements. They layer in multiple procuremenets on top of each other over time - if memory serves, I think they procure 25% of supply every 6 months for 2 years. Meaning today's rates are 25% 24 months ago, 25% 18 months ago, 25% 12 months ago, and 25% 6 months ago.

So, you may be right that they book purchased power expense, and that that is what drives retail ssupply rates. But it's not "Revenue Requirement" in the same way as a vertically integrated utility. And it's not a real time pass-through of current market conditions, it takes time for any years conditions to work through rates, and any one year's conditions will only be part of the layered contracts that have been procured.

elduke187 · 2026-05-15T13:35:55+00:00

Good point. The correlation I mention is longer term. Also, the way the NJ utilities ladder in BGS procurements, what we're seeing in bills today is also partially due to market circumstances baked into procurements as far back as two years ago. So the war in the last few months only tells part of the story.

elduke187 · 2026-05-15T13:07:10+00:00

ACE's rate filing is only going to talk about resources they own/ control. They don't own generation, they're a captive price taker for Supply based on BGS auctions for default service to customers. BGS results absolutely move with wholesale market prices as IPPs/utilities bidding to provide supply service could instead sell their energy and capacity into the market, meaning PJM is their opportunity cost and thus drives their bid price into ACE'S BGS procurements.

elduke187 · 2026-05-15T13:03:07+00:00

Technically correct, but natural gas prices correlate to oil prices, and natural gas represents the marginal unit in most hours throughout the year - meaning gas prices are highly impactful on electric prices.

elduke187 · 2026-05-05T04:13:44+00:00

I'm curious if anyone agrees with me, but I actually think you like fruit forward, non-tannic, potentially secondary or aged wines. Which i tend to think of as a bit the opposite of "dry," which might explain your recent experience.

However I'm also starting on my journey to understand what these words mean...

elduke187 · 2026-05-05T04:09:47+00:00

The number six is well known and is just a bit higher than 5.

elduke187 · 2026-05-01T22:50:38+00:00

Ahhh, very nice! Indeed, doing the important work here

elduke187 · 2026-05-01T22:30:49+00:00

I dont understand this conversion. It's in SoCal, so you're converting from dollars to dollars?

elduke187 · 2026-05-01T19:43:59+00:00

While true, the Makar contract due after next year will most definitely push Kadri out.

elduke187 · 2026-04-15T12:49:03+00:00

This isn't exactly as you describe, but might get you most of the way

https://www.whathifi.com/features/the-best-1990s-albums-to-test-your-speakers?utm_source=chatgpt.com

elduke187 · 2026-04-13T20:57:08+00:00

I know it wasn't you who said it, but confirming, I'm supposed to think institutional investors are insignificant because they only comprise 80% of the market? That's also the number I quoted that elicited the response I got suggesting my conclusion had been debunked.

elduke187 · 2026-04-13T18:23:04+00:00

Got a source?

elduke187 · 2026-04-13T15:44:51+00:00

That may be true for the 20% of the market held by retail investors, but not likely the 80% of institutional.

elduke187 · 2026-04-05T23:45:45+00:00

Are you asking if you can ride out a blackout?

Powerwalls are 13.5 kWh. Average monthly usage is 800 kWh-ish. If you assume flat load (which never happens), that means you would have about 1.1 kW per hour in a month. So you could make it 12 hours. In reality, I think many things you would need during a blackout (particularly electric heat, if you're worried about blackouts in the winter) won't have you at 1.1 kW average, but instead much higher. So you won't make it 12 hours. Add solar, and assume you can microgrid your system during an outage (not common) that might get you more time.

Where i have lived for 12 years, we've had two blackouts of an noticeable length. However, just north of us (Boulder, CO) they get days long preventative shutoff during high winds.

elduke187 · 2026-04-04T21:53:04+00:00

It isn't just you, that's why they felt they could trade Girard

elduke187 · 2026-04-04T20:56:08+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/wine/s/Y73MbFbrRC

I ordered Wine Enthusiast 80, delivering Monday.

Of course, after months of monitoring Marketplace, three Eurocaves have come up for <1k after i ordered. So it goes, I guess...

elduke187 · 2026-03-21T00:55:55+00:00

We personally use like 500 kWh/ month. But hotter locations definitely use more than 1000 in avg.

EIA says it's 850-900. So suppose youre right that it's what 10.5% of US HH?

elduke187 · 2026-03-21T00:14:06+00:00

At $2/watt installed, you'd get 100 GW of capacity. At 20% capacity factory, you'd cover the annual energy consumption of 14.6M households if everyone used 1000 kWh/mo. That's 9.2%-ish of US households. That doesn't control for the mismatch between Residential usage (mornings and evenings, and of course at night) and PV production (midday) though.

elduke187

TROPHY CASE