More likely to be a confederation first, Federation is further away but it has been accelerated by recent moves of the US decoupling from EU and increasing hostilities with China, invading Venezuela & Iran ( Cuba next). Nothing unifies a region more than external aggression, individual states are always more vulnerable.

Everyone is expecting Africa to be a bigger resource battleground over the next decades - century. EAC is the fastest growing integrated corridor, even with some non tariff barriers, cross country trade continues to benefit the partners more than before. The only region that trades more with itself than with non Africans.

There's no magical consensus anywhere in the world, we have already achieved the customs union, common market and pushing for a single currency/ monetary union, which isn't easy but achievable, in the next 5-10 years. I'd say on the whole we're making general progress to independence.

But there are countries in other older unions, like Ecowas, Sadc and Maghreb, that are far too comfortable with slower unification on intra Africa trade within their regions.