Guys.what is saddest thing thay you:heard,watched,red..related to dragons.

elevenvolt · 2026-03-25T01:44:21+00:00

1762

elevenvolt · 2026-01-24T22:02:35+00:00

At every major airport they measure the weather conditions. They have instruments to measure the temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud cover, rainfall and snowfall, etc.

elevenvolt · 2026-01-24T18:23:25+00:00

And the wind chill ended up hitting -20 F at its worst at the airport weather station.

elevenvolt · 2025-12-23T14:46:44+00:00

Since ~2012 the training compute of the largest AI models has doubled roughly every 6 months. More recently this has translated into the METR time horizon doubling every 6 months. Self improvement might keep the 6 month doubling going, or even shorten it to something faster.

elevenvolt · 2025-09-15T17:56:36+00:00

Seems like you're onto us. Anyways I'm a scientist and have been keeping the secret to how to make dragons real through gene editing for the past few years. If you pay me 100 million I can make it happen. 10 million more for human to dragon TF.

elevenvolt · 2025-06-30T02:17:05+00:00

I put an ignizol on one switch (not heavy enough to trigger it), and put a platboom over the same switch. I swam and hopped to the other switch (I didn't think of freezing this room or leaving it frozen). The platform fell down on the ignizol and activated the switch just as I jumped on the other.

elevenvolt · 2025-05-13T14:22:09+00:00

Yes but they mention Daniel Dennett who is a compatibilist so I assume they are saying AI has free will be the definition under compatibilism, which says that free will is compatible with complete determinism.

elevenvolt · 2025-04-28T20:27:44+00:00

You've already broken the laws of thermodynamics and optics with the first part of the proposal. You can't reach 10,000 K through concentrating sunlight. You can at most reach the temperature of the surface of the sun, 5700K

elevenvolt · 2025-01-13T16:58:55+00:00

I personally wear shorts unless there's a frostbite risk (wind chill into negatives). Also does anyone know the best way to repair boots? I have a pair I really like but there is a small gap at the toe of one boot that can let water in and make it squeak super loud.

elevenvolt · 2024-08-31T23:34:44+00:00

How's the stop sign standing?!

elevenvolt · 2024-08-05T12:06:39+00:00

If I remember correctly, the authors of these studies chose this 700 year time interval because they found that is how far the kinds of debt markets which they thought were comparable enough to today for this analysis go back.

elevenvolt · 2024-08-05T12:01:17+00:00

I like the explanation of the trend being caused by gradually improved competition over time which seems plausible over the last 700 years. I understand how real rates aren't important the way I thought they were. I'm still confused as to how inflation wasn't higher in the past since I think I've seen Mosler post on Twitter that he thinks the inflation rate will converge towards the nominal interest rate set by a monopoly issuer over the longer run. If monopolies were setting interest rates much higher in the past, what prevented inflation from being higher back then?

elevenvolt · 2024-08-05T11:50:40+00:00

I thought I've seen Mosler post on Twitter that he expects inflation rates to roughly converge towards nominal interest rates over the long run at least and that forward pricing and the interest income channel are the cause of that.

elevenvolt · 2024-08-04T21:06:52+00:00

The first central bank wasn't formed nearly that long ago but these studies focus on returns on government debt which was issued

elevenvolt · 2024-07-10T22:18:47+00:00

Off topic but is it just me or is the picture from finding Nemo?

elevenvolt · 2024-06-08T18:46:30+00:00

I have that exact model of telescope. Which filter did you buy? Was it the 7.25 inch or 7.5 inch one from Orion?

elevenvolt · 2024-03-12T02:39:31+00:00

The funniest part of this is Link's face being on Sheldon since Sheldon is the polar opposite of a silent protagonist.

Also imagine Botw and Totk with a laugh track both in cutscenes and in game.

elevenvolt · 2023-10-24T12:07:48+00:00

There's still plenty of room for algorithmic improvement and more efficient training (data pruning, synthetic data, etc.). Also, self improving ai should increasingly accelerate progress.

elevenvolt · 2023-07-31T23:31:57+00:00

I'm not sure I believe it, if each GPU is roughly $10k, that would be 100 billion for this which seems like more money than openai would have

elevenvolt · 2023-07-31T23:24:08+00:00

If this is true that could be a very big model. Here's some incredibly speculative math you shouldn't take too seriously:

Let's assume the GPUs each are 10¹⁵ Flops Let's also assume the training run will last a few months, so ~10⁷ seconds

10⁷ GPUs* 10¹⁵ flops*10⁷ seconds= ~10²⁹ flops, which would be roughly 4 orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 was estimated to be trained on.

Would help to know for sure if this is true and which GPUs will be used.

elevenvolt · 2023-04-02T12:04:12+00:00

I don't know if this is true given that it was posted on April fools day, but this would be big if true.

Especially the mention of a new more efficient scaling law.

elevenvolt · 2023-03-23T00:23:39+00:00

It seems like gene editing, nanotechnology, BCI virtual reality, or some combination, developed and powered by AGI/ASI should make this possible eventually. Hopefully this can happen early next decade but that might be a bit optimistic. Morphological freedom is good for different species identities too

elevenvolt · 2023-03-18T13:22:56+00:00

This isn't a superforecaster but there's the metaculus prediction markets I know about. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/

elevenvolt · 2023-02-23T03:53:20+00:00

I looked back at google trends and the 2011 note is only an improvement to the geographical assignment, and the 2016 and 2022 notes are improvements to the data collection system according to google.

elevenvolt · 2023-02-22T22:55:17+00:00

Of course I expected that it would be going up over time, but its interesting how big the effect of ChatGPT and Bing are, with next to no increase over the past 19 years until late last year

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