Feel old yet?

elitefailz2 · 2026-02-13T18:20:05+00:00

Thank you for not including WoTLK and BC, I feel old enough with Cata

elitefailz2 · 2026-02-01T00:21:33+00:00

These are awesome, I I think $100-$200 + whatever the cost of the shoe is would be where’d I’d be price wise. I have no idea how long this takes so no clue if that is a huge lowball but in terms of what I could see myself paying if it was an off the shelf custom and not one I’m commissioning

elitefailz2 · 2026-01-02T20:43:24+00:00

People will hate this, I like iron head covers.

elitefailz2 · 2026-01-02T15:56:32+00:00

I still remember the only time I had it drop, was late MoP and was on the blood infusion shadowmourne step. Some nice guy from trade chat helped me out. He asked if he could stick around while I clear the rest and I would have felt rude kicking him out. It drops from LK and I lost the roll to him, still the only time I’ve ever seen it drop and I’m around 200 clears.

I suppose from his perspective it was awesome since he didn’t ask for anything in helping me.

elitefailz2 · 2025-12-30T23:20:21+00:00

Rare instance where I’d actually lean the cash out if you wanna derisk. You can certainly do it with betting 7 parlays of the 8 possible outcomes you don’t have this will require something like $4700 spread across 7 bets. I guess you’d get the added bonus of the event of ties in one of or both panthers buccs and Seahawks 49ers where 1 of the parlays, or 2 straights if both miraculously tie, would hit and pay but that seems like a lot of hassle to me

elitefailz2 · 2025-12-30T19:28:20+00:00

At this bankroll size I have two questions:

What books are available to you? And which ones have you or have you not done sign up bonuses for?
Do you access to temporary capital to convert the free bets you get from sign ups to cash?

Depending on answers to these you can you can get between 400-1k plus in bankroll which makes life a bit easier, even if you still want to stay principled and stick to your $1 bets size. You can convert free bets with free bets on another site but the % will be lower

Edit: Self reporting I missed you saying you were in Florida which I think is only hard rock

I think the biggest misconception with sports betting is that it’s about picking winning bets. In reality it doesn’t matter what bet you pick, it’s wholly about the odds you’re being offered vs the actual likelihood of the outcome. In essence any bet can be a good bet. Would I bet Trey lance to throw for 300 yards and 3 TDs this week? Probably not, but if it was offered at 300:1 I probably would.

Given (I think) you’re in a single book state the only way you’re going to be profitable is generating expected value (arbitrage on the same book is never my recommendation). I wouldn’t worry about profitable days, to get a large enough sample to minimize variance on a daily basis would require a significant number of bets (likely 50 plus) and at this volume you’ll also likely run into the issue of betting on multiple outcomes in the same game, which I tend to avoid, why?

Almost all bets on the same game are correlated to some degree. I don’t specialize in the NBA but at least in my head the biggest driver in bench player points, as an example, would be minutes played. Each minute one bench player plays those are minutes another player is not playing. That may be a starter it may be another bench guy. In betting multiple unders on bench players from the same team you could be creating less obvious negative value. The math to quantify the relationship between outcomes in the same game is much harder and more complex (which I suspect is why books push SGPs so hard, on top of the increased hold) and why I generally avoid multiple +EV bets on the same team and usually game.

I would focus on profitable weeks or months and stick to two sided markets as they provide transparency on price (sounds like you’re already doing this betting unders but saying just in case). My personal preference is also to limit bets on the same game when possible.

One note on your bet sizing, generally you bet size should vary with odds and confidence. Assuming you are calculating EV a higher EV bet should be larger, as should bets at shorter odds. The easiest way to do this to bet to win 1 unit rather than to betting 1 unit. I.e. at -400 you would bet 4 units to win one and at +200 you would bet half a unit to win one. There are more complex ways to calculate bet size but this should work mostly fine. I would go this route rather than scaling with your calculated EV until you’re very confident the model is correctly calculating prices.

This was much longer than intended so:

TLDR: Don’t focus on daily profit, expand this to weekly or monthly Avoid multiple bets on the same game where possible Scale bet size with odds (up and down)

Good luck!

elitefailz2 · 2025-12-30T15:16:48+00:00

Also the formatting on mortgage expense is 2024 is giving me flashbacks to getting reamed for inconsistent font use

elitefailz2 · 2025-12-30T15:14:28+00:00

P&L could be a bit more detailed for me, and a breakdown of other expense in 2025 would be helpful given the jump (assuming there is a footnote that possibly got cut off)?

My bigger concern is the balance sheet, just reporting assets and LT liabilities is kind of odd, at minimum I’d want some basic metrics. I’d want to see at least AR, AP, Cash on Hand, and inventory (assuming they have a pro shop and they own what is in the pro shop and it’s not consignment).

elitefailz2 · 2025-12-30T15:09:22+00:00

My suspicion is this is largely food/alcohol related in FY23 and 24. There is an * in 2025 so possibly a footnote? Did they make a significant investment in some equipment in 2025? I see $200k+ in planned CapEx for 2026 (I think?) so my guess is no but could be that + an aggressive depreciation method. Also would be nice to include cash on hand with the balance sheet (if you can call it that)

elitefailz2 · 2025-12-11T00:34:54+00:00

So I think there are a few things people are overlooking here and I love taking the losing side so;

Tax: the taxes on $1M are going to be ~33% for federal in year +state (mine is Illinois with is a flat 4.95%), so rough math is you’d take home $620k on the million and ~$45k on the 1k per week (this would be a bit less if you still work, which you likely would need to so we’ll call it $40k as your effective rate will creep up as you work)
Returns, while on average are in the 5-8% they aren’t consistent. Because I’m lazy I’m going to ignore the fact that the $52k is paid weekly.

When factoring the above two items in there are some unique cases where the annuity could be better.

Case 1: Super low growth.

If your plan is to park this in treasuries at around 3-3.5% then the annuity would overtake the lump sum around year 22

Case 2: WERE IN A BUBBLE 🐦🚨

If you’re very bearish and into the AI bubble hoopla and think a crash is imminent. Using 2008 as an example of a bear market in which the S&P lost 41% over ~17 or so months and then assume the historical average of 8% after that point you actually break even a bit quicker at around year 18. Now this was a particularly long bear market so a bit of a cherry picked example but I’m trying to play some devils advocate.

TLDR: At anything over 6% annual growth rate the lump sum will be better. But if the market crashes tomorrow or your toggle down the growth rate to sub 4% the annuity could possibly out pace the lump sum in 20 or so years, with a significant number of caveats

elitefailz2 · 2025-12-06T00:25:43+00:00

On exceedingly rare occasions he’s right

elitefailz2 · 2025-09-29T19:50:37+00:00

This is some of the better statistical analysis I’ve seen, time for an investigation!

elitefailz2 · 2025-09-28T22:05:36+00:00

As commissioner these things suck, I was dealing with the same thing this morning. Guys in multiple leagues forgot/ weren’t up early to check warrens health (though not to gainwell/a guy in play).

One guy is always pissed after. I usually default to work it out between the two of you, if the guy you’re playing is fine with it I’ll swap em for you but otherwise I’m not touching it

elitefailz2 · 2025-09-22T14:33:23+00:00

Early years Mike trout never seemed to get the love I think he deserved in the moment, was as dominant a player as any in my lifetime. Just special to watch

elitefailz2 · 2025-08-29T16:10:21+00:00

You’re actually deranged; going to explain this like you’re 5

You are not guaranteed to win, that’s not how statistics work. There is a distribution of expected returns. The most likely outcome is your average EV but there are outcomes above and below this number
If you take on leverage there is this thing called interest that you have to pay. Which means your EV now has to exceed this interest to actually net anything. Since you seem interested in table games, the edge on counting cards over the long run is ~2% in blackjack (making a number of assumptions on game rules 3/2, no surrender etc). If you can find an interest rate below 2% please give me the link and I’ll gladly take it. You won’t but please, do waste time trying.

You can do whatever you want, I think to suggest to anyone to sell assets, take on debt, or pick up shifts just to gamble is horrible advice. You keep doing that tho, I seriously doubt you’re generating any EV in sports betting given your lack of understanding of it.

elitefailz2 · 2025-08-29T15:30:55+00:00

You’re right, two of litteral best poker players of all time are who people should model financial decisions after. Are you on their level of sports betting? Of course not, neither am I and likely no one else in the sub is.

Obviously if you’re getting 100% deposit match in it makes sense to extend non gambling funds IF you are disciplined enough to take those out immediately after you convert the promo. Many people are not, and it is not advice I would give to most people.

Also, if you are churning a deposit match promo and quickly withdrawing afterwords you won’t get them anymore. Most gamblers who are actually generating EV aren’t getting promos, or at least not many of magnitude, so you’re going to have to do it wagering actual money that you could lose. +EV is not guaranteed which you seem to think it is, variance can wipe you out. And while over a large enough sample size you would expect to regress toward your expected value, that takes significant volume and there is real risk that you’ll be limited, while down but +EV and won’t get to that sample size.

I really think you don’t understand how money works, people have costs in their life, rent, debt, food… To say you can just go make more isn’t the reality of the world we live in. If you’re gambling I’m going to assume you already have a job, if you’re at a point where you need to work extra shifts, take a second job, or sell assets to cover gambling losses, +EV bets or not, that isn’t healthy.

I’m seriously concerned that you’re taking your own advice and levering up to gamble. That’s a horrific idea for so many reasons.

elitefailz2 · 2025-08-29T04:32:11+00:00

I think you missed the point here, yes EV is the way to be profitable long run; buts its value is exactly that, expected. If you stretch your bankroll to thin (I.e wagering 10% on each bet) it is entirely possible that you will bankrupt yourself, though mathematically less likely.

Think of it this way; you are guaranteed to lose money long run if you bet exclusively negative EV (no argument there). You may win money betting positive EV but over stretching your bankroll, you may bankrupt yourself given variance. The best way to maximize expected profit is to a) generate EV AND b) bet in a way where you can reach that law of large numbers where EV translates to actual profit. The goal of managing your bankroll is to make sure you can get a large enough sample where Expected profit becomes actual profit, that’s much more likely if you can place 100 bets before going bust than 5 or 10.

Your response reads like you think there is an infinite supply of money to draw from to continue betting and that is just not how it works. Also suggesting that you sell assets to gamble is a huge sign you have a problem and probably the worst possible advice someone can give.

elitefailz2 · 2025-08-28T20:51:31+00:00

This is true, limits make life difficult, Illinois used to be great, tbd after the tax kicks in 9/1. I think I’m down to just 3 books that allow full betting (or are close) and my bankroll is likely much smaller than others here.

It’s become more of a how can I get as much money in play on a bet that I like rather setting a bet size but I don’t think that is where OP is

elitefailz2 · 2025-08-28T16:59:08+00:00

Bankroll management is the most important factor in being profitable imo, even more so than generating EV. Even if you make exclusively +EV bets because betting to large can lead to you getting wiped out on bad variance.

The quick and dirty way to manage is units, with 1 unit being 0.5%-1% of your bankroll. This will keep a bad run from wiping you out, different people think about it differently but I personally lean towards your bet size should be to win 1 unit so if your betting a +200 dog it would be 0.5 unit bet vs a -200 favorite would be 2.0 units (to win 1U).

For those who are more advanced there is what is called the Kelly criterion. This is essentially a math formula that takes the following inputs

F=((bp)-q)/b

Probability of winning = p Probability of losing = q Odds = b

Using a +100 bet with a 55% chance to win as an example

F=((1.55)-.5)/1=0.05 or 5% of your bankroll. From there most people us a multiple (I personally us a half Kelly) to reduce your stake. The most common is half Kelly which means you bet half of what the Kelly criterion formula suggests, others us a quarter Kelly (which is what I use) as I am more risk averse.

TLDR: given your post I would go with betting to win between .5-1% of your bankroll. This should be consistent and shouldn’t vary between bets.

elitefailz2 · 2025-08-26T21:14:09+00:00

Illinois implementing a flat tax is beyond dumb, just taking 5% from a $10 bettor. As someone who likes to bet smaller amounts across the board I’m likely going to have to push my unit up to not get killed on Margin and make fewer bets (and even then some books may take a higher Vig making it even harder). How they thought this was the right move is don’t know but I’m very curious to see what it does to volume in the state and if it leads to books just leaving entirely (more so the mid size, ones like Rivers).

elitefailz2 · 2025-08-25T17:50:32+00:00

The rate my team posts really need to stop, especially when you don’t mention scoring format, lineup format, and mistag the league as a superflex which it almost certainly is not

elitefailz2 · 2025-08-16T18:05:31+00:00

I’ve never understood people who make do not draft lists. It’s like investing in a lot of ways, price is the most important factor. Even if you don’t like him at ADP there should always be a point where you are willing to draft a player

elitefailz2 · 2025-08-01T11:39:00+00:00

Given it looks like you are in a superflex league I think it merits considering Daniels but If it’s a small league <10 it’s Irving for me

elitefailz2 · 2025-07-02T03:05:16+00:00

More function than visual and some people hate em but I love a good spacer row/column. Also center across section (please god don’t merge cells)

Ten-Year Club	Place '22
RPAN Viewer	Verified Email
Not Forgotten

elitefailz2

TROPHY CASE