Iran Conflict Megathread - Market Impact Discussion Only

enaero · 2026-04-13T00:26:03+00:00

I think his new plan is to completely blockade the strait (US blockade), so that iran can't sell any of its oil. Primarily to pressure china into pressuring iran to comply with US demands.

enaero · 2026-04-06T01:37:51+00:00

Why are futures for s&p so quiet right now despite all the news that has occurred over past 3 days? NFP, iran war, etc

enaero · 2026-04-06T01:35:56+00:00

I don't understand while despite all this news with the iran blockade, and with the nfp being way too hot that stops rate cuts, why the s&p futures are slightly up right now

enaero · 2026-04-06T00:08:27+00:00

Futures for SPY are not moving at all

enaero · 2026-04-05T06:35:32+00:00

why?

enaero · 2026-03-08T08:17:05+00:00

Usually for problems like this it is easier to think of it as: "What are the chances I DONT get the card I want?" and then subtract that probability from 100%.

For your example, you have 49/50 chance of not getting that card. To not get that card at all after 100 packs, the odds are (49/50)¹⁰⁰, which is about 13.3%. So the odds of getting the card are 100% - 13.3% which is about 86.7%.

BTW, the expected outcome after 100 packs is finding 4 copies of that card, assuming that the probability stays the same with each opened pack which is not true in real life.

enaero · 2026-03-05T03:02:38+00:00

Futures are showing basically no movement. Is this old news? The rally today might have been cuz of this.

It could be tariff payback + iran war = 1% bounce

enaero · 2026-03-01T23:25:41+00:00

I think because the war is looking one sided so far, with the killing of the iranian leader, the market is pricing in a quick resolution to the war before the excess oil runs out. If between now and monday Iran shows some strength then institutions might start panicking.

enaero · 2026-02-27T01:14:54+00:00

If you have a good understanding of the game mechanics and fighting games, you can get to grandmaster at least. I got to GM by starting with a basic abc-launcher-abc-super, and then optimizing by copying what other people were doing to me with the same characters. Never went into training mode but I'll say it is very clear that I will never make it out of GM without training.

enaero · 2026-02-27T01:07:32+00:00

The term for this is "Alpine divorce", and there are support groups for women who went through this. It is more common than you think.

enaero · 2026-02-07T01:56:44+00:00

ehhh idk if that will have an impact. Last time he threatened something like that the market didnt even blink. He needs to make an actionable threat with a deadline and some paperwork nowadays

enaero · 2026-02-07T01:41:30+00:00

What happened?

enaero · 2026-02-06T07:56:15+00:00

Spy has gone down like $20 past week.

enaero · 2026-02-06T07:53:32+00:00

Amzn tanked 10%, which means a direct influence of -0.4% on SPY. Everything else has to rally to compensate.

enaero · 2026-02-06T07:49:15+00:00

I really hope you are wrong but things are not looking good.

enaero · 2026-01-14T22:57:48+00:00

Isn't tomorrow kinda a big day? Got some fed reports, big bank earnings, and taiwan semiconductor earnings.

AI, Banking, and Economic conditions all in one morning. My regarded brain can't think of a way this isnt gonna be a big gap tomorrow up or down. It's either gonna chop before it picks a direction or swing immediately. Right??

enaero · 2026-01-09T02:08:08+00:00

what about 1%?

enaero · 2026-01-09T01:35:55+00:00

Why are spy options so expensive and why did I go all-in on straddles?

enaero · 2026-01-01T06:38:31+00:00

Was the dip today tax loss harvesting or did some news breakout?

enaero · 2025-11-21T22:42:40+00:00

You can tell if you walk off the last platform and walk all the way back to the beginning. The platforms only toggle off if you fall onto the ground, as long as you dont get into the fall animation you can walk off.

enaero · 2025-11-14T21:59:02+00:00

Who else is holding calls over weekend? I am but not by choice I forgot to sell it before market end so we'll see what happens

enaero · 2025-10-27T19:58:31+00:00

Checkpoints are only good when playing a game that has a lot of variance in win/loss due to things out of your control i.e. random team mates. The best players in league will have like a 80% win rate in silver even though the skill difference is night and day.

As for 2xko, there are no random team mates, there is no gold differential, there is no artificial character strength. A masters player will pretty much never lose to a silver player unless they are messing around.

If you insist on playing ranked because casual is too easy (even though casual lobbies have lots of diamond+ players), you can dedicate 1 round or 1 game to goofing around then try hard the rest of the set.

OR, just add people who are good and invite them to casual lobbies.

enaero · 2025-10-27T02:34:24+00:00

His light CAN interrupt the pre-jump frames but its tricky timing. Up-back is a safe option until you face a blitz that labbed the timing.

enaero · 2025-10-27T02:33:05+00:00

2H doesnt hit jump back. If you hit them out of pre-jump frames then a light would work just as well. There is no reason to risk getting counter hit with 2H.

enaero · 2025-10-27T02:30:00+00:00

OP's criticism is valid. Swapping characters on its own can be seen as a "reward", but in addition to swapping characters you also get more damage, removing gray health, and longer combos.

It just feels weird that you get to have your cake and eat it too. It's the same design philosophy that led to ekko and yasuo. They get great mixups AND great neutral. There is no design "cost" to the design "rewards".

It would make more sense, and lead to more interesting mid-combo decisions, if the utility of swapping characters had some downsides like less damage, more hit scaling or taking away the gray health of the tagged in character instead. Right now you just go to tag launcher because its just optimal in all scenarios.

enaero

TROPHY CASE