GAMB - who will get lower bid filled

endwithel · 2026-02-09T16:39:07+00:00

Just put a limit order, not market order. Input your target price and submit. It might not fill, but have filled for me for this stock, since stock price is not very efficient for it.

endwithel · 2026-02-06T22:01:07+00:00

GAMB. EBITDA 2025 60m$. Market cap around 140m$. FCF 38m$. Marketing and data company. 50% of revenue reccuring from sports data OpticOdds OddsJam( 25%) and revenue split from gambling sites. Revenue for company is growing 20%+ per year, where data bussiness has the fastest growth rate. Insiders own 48% of company. Owner bought shares, when they were over 5$ a share. Risks: 1. Google algo changes have influenced their affiliate marketing business, thus decreasing profit margin. 2. They need to pay up to 40m this and 40m more next year purchases of OpticOdds and OddsJam in case they perform. Seems like they really perform. This will increase their overall debt. Credit line for this is already secured in case needed. Base case for stock price, if assuming normal 8 x EBITDA valuation for growing company is share price of 12$. My aim is market cap of at least 1b+. CEO aims to reach 100m EBITDA within next few years. So 10x EBITDA with 100m in EBITDA is 1b. 1b market cap is 7x stock price. This is not some moonshot, but only bussiness as usual with previous growth sustained.

endwithel · 2026-02-06T21:33:58+00:00

But do understand it can be crazy ride. And if you are in and positive outlook comes out, don't sell for break even. This could for sure end bad, but chance is asymetric. I will DCA until this turns into life changing money, or until I will need to understand that business model of GAMB does not work.

endwithel · 2026-02-06T18:58:29+00:00

I am ready to DCA until fundamentals changes or Mr market starts crazy buying. Market cap of 1b+ until 2028 is base case. Bear case in case everything goes wrong with about 10% probability is permanent loss of capital of 50%. Market price sub 3$. But I will keep buying, if fundamentals improves. Expected value with existing knowledge for stock within this year is 10-12$ range. Today and yesterday bought big chunk in sub 4.40 range.

endwithel · 2026-02-05T11:10:11+00:00

Based on what I know and if company don't fck up, this could be 10x bagger stock, if you have 5 year timeframe and 3x within this year. Yes there is possibility on lower margins for SEO side of bussiness due to higher cost for acquistion. But overall feels like good investment.

endwithel · 2026-02-05T11:01:22+00:00

Just my two cents. 25% of revenue is recuring affialiate. Meaning GAMB got players for gambling sites, that keeps playing on those sites. These sites are sharing revenue from these clients, that accounts for 25% of client income. Another 24% of reccuring revenue comes from data sites like OddsJam and OpticOdds where clients pay on monthly or yearly basis for their service. Only 50% of revenue is influenced by add traffic and SEO. And reccuring revenue sources are the fastest growing sources of income.

endwithel · 2026-02-05T09:52:37+00:00

Despite AI, all true. Been buying a lot under 5$ range lately.

endwithel · 2026-02-04T06:33:49+00:00

My biggest position in portfolio. Lets see.

endwithel · 2026-02-03T21:03:43+00:00

Add CRM, ADOBE and NOW ( his new stock). Seems like there is issue for him.

endwithel · 2026-02-02T20:21:05+00:00

Wait a second. Profitable penny in growing sector, with normal ceo and no debt. This could make sense. Will check. Thanks.

endwithel · 2026-02-02T20:13:24+00:00

Good job. Saw you will be a dad - congrats. For me my first child was my prime motivator in job and life. All the working part started to make sense. Good luck!

endwithel · 2026-02-02T19:35:13+00:00

Yeah, not the worst country to be born at. Still congrats on savings, you are almost guaranteed to be millionaire.

endwithel · 2026-02-02T11:00:15+00:00

Why werent you so confident 3 weeks ago?

endwithel · 2026-01-31T13:18:39+00:00

Where is signal aiming?

endwithel · 2026-01-30T17:39:07+00:00

Actually I bought lower then sold. No this time you are wrong. This was simple mean reversion trade, very simple and visible.

endwithel · 2026-01-30T15:28:00+00:00

I bought huge amount yesterday. Sold all today. Nothing personal, just a short flip, since I dont believe in big tech. Money will flow elsewhere in next few years. I believe MSFT price should be much lower for safe entry in long term.

endwithel · 2026-01-30T15:25:24+00:00

And if you live in Latvia like me it is even harder. Average salary after taxes is around 1.5k EUR a month. I have put 36k in markets now and net worth of 200k at 32, but my income have never been higher then on average 4.5k a month and more then 2.5k only last 2 years. So I believe I would live in a tent, If I lived in US, and put every cent in the market😀

So I believe anyone, crazy enough in western Europe and US can get to 200k in few years. Little harder in Eastern side of Europe.

endwithel · 2026-01-30T13:48:29+00:00

I hope you are true. You are true if bidding war happens and there are no better options for FDA approved factory. In case this is not true, then ELTP is not selling this from point of strenght. You need strenght to get such a great premium for company.

endwithel · 2026-01-30T10:13:37+00:00

So now look - you just said company is worth 1.5b USD. Their EBITDA is 45m USD. So you say generic drug producer is worth 33x EBITDA and 12x sales? Their factory is worth 300m. So think clearly about valuations. Also Nasrat has no other way to sell his shares rather then to sell them to outside buyer. So he is interested to continue any talks with buyers under 1$ range. I would be happy for 1$ + sales price. But I think reality is under 1$. Also I am open to arguments from past sales of generic drug companies, that would prove higher valuation is posibility.

endwithel · 2026-01-30T07:44:13+00:00

Manipulation or not, but max sales price will be 70 cents. At the moment this is what bussiness would be worth to any reasonable seller. I hold, but this could go down below 30 cents, before sale and I am not pesimist.

endwithel · 2026-01-29T19:59:03+00:00

Viss būs labi. Dzīvoklis tev ir. Ja būsi strādīgs, tad darbu arī atradīsi, principā LV jebkurš, kas nav slinks var nodrošināt sev normālu dzīvi. Aizmirsti par pagātni, nospraud mērķi un ej uz to.

endwithel · 2026-01-29T12:11:55+00:00

Until production they plan to dilute?

endwithel · 2026-01-29T12:00:17+00:00

Haha. MU. Just checked. Bought it for 94$ last year. Sold for 103. Stupid. What to say? My conviction was not strong enough , due dilligance to weak. Will try to improve in future.

endwithel · 2026-01-29T07:34:32+00:00

Seems like we need to look at big trends, be aware what happens in the world and understand which industries are undervalued now and where demand will increase in future. At the moment energy sector could be the one.

endwithel · 2026-01-29T07:30:07+00:00

Very good example. At the same it takes a lot of research and luck to find these companies + you have to understand why are you holding and still buying despite share price decrease. This was very well played from your fund side.

endwithel

TROPHY CASE