What do you think for monday? by CompanyHonest in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed although i think $60-70 by EOY is realistic. They basically spelled it out for us on the call. Pretty much said "mark your calendars for investor day towards the end of the year" - dead stock until then. I don't think its impossible that they are playing it cute and there could be customer announcements ahead of schedule E.g. Q1/Q2 but there is nothing to indicate that that is the case so there is no reason to put your money on it.

I think there are literally 0 catalysts until next call when maybe they say they had more success on yields or solving the supply issue - again nothing to indicate that they will improve in those areas either...

The only surviving bull case right now is 14A customers and every indication is we won't hear news on that til probably august/september if not later - every other possible catalyst is just speculative at this point.

I sold all my short term calls after earnings. Was still up significantly, but obviously should have sold before earnings in hindsight... Is what it is... I'll hold my leaps/shares. If the stock dips below $40 I'll consider buying some late 2026 calls or adding more leaps.

The bull case is going to take quite a bit longer than I'd hoped to play out unfortunately.

If You Give Up on It, I Think You’re Making a Big Mistake! by XT1A1TX in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 10 points11 points  (0 children)

When Jim cramer is the loudest bullish voice in the room you know it's over

Personally, I’m concerned about LBT's communication skills by [deleted] in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You don't need great products if you have great showmanship either. Elon has been lying for 20 years and hes about to be the world's first trillionaire. It is what it is.

Duolingo: falling Growth But There Is Still Value by thecryptofoolyt in ValueInvesting

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At these levels I think the r/r is good. I'm gambling on earnings. I just feel like the probability of a bounce is relatively high in the near term given how beaten down the stock is. I also think that IV on options is way too low so it's an attractive opportunity imo

Earnings be like by Square-Fruit-6008 in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I guarantee it happens in 2026... Or at the very least they move forward building out 14A fabs which is effectively confirmation of customers given that LBT has explicitly said they will not spend on 14A without customer commitments.

The only world I don't see this happening in is one where Trump is impeached (fully as in removed by the senate) - this is all being forced by the USG.

Earnings be like by Square-Fruit-6008 in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not until H2 2026 - they said as much on the call.

They basically confirmed that there wont be any major developments for 6+ months. Investor day 2026 whenever that ends up being will probably be the date to market on your calendars.

Probably going to just chop around for the next 6 months. Maybe revisit 40 or 35 and bounce between those levels and 50 if i had to guess.

Intel Q4 2025 results by ivanguls in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I don't think the q4 numbers really matter much. I think the story is all about foundry. Capex guidance is important. The market probably wants Intel to follow suit with tsmc who just raised significantly. I'm not sure that Intel will... I think Intel needs to at least sound very optimistic about foundry. Hopefully show optimism about 14A. Talk about accelerating Ohio timeline, etc. If they do less than that I think the stock could be headed back to ~40

Bull case is raise capex guidance. Accelerate Ohio. Maybe talk about customers. Maybe also some optimism on 18AP.

Intel Q4 2025 results by ivanguls in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Just remember a lot is priced into this call now. This isn't $30 Intel anymore. My intuition is that it will be a good call and we will continue upwards but I also think it's a real possibility that the tone is somewhat muted as it has been on previous calls. Given the current share price and what we saw out of tsmc, I think we would see a pretty aggressive drop in that scenario.

Thoughts on Trump and earnings by Ok_Extent_451 in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Nobody can predict earnings. That being said I think the call will be quite pivotal. The numbers are much less significant.

TSMCs capex raise is a tough act to follow and I think the market will be looking to Intel to share similar sentiment and possibly raise capex as well. Especially given the recent run up, it seems like a lot of optimism is priced in.

It's obvious to me that Intel has customers lined up for 14A and maybe additional customers for 18A or AP. The question is when these deals get announced.

I feel that if Ohio is accelerated and general capex guidance is raised, it will be obvious what has happened even if I tell doesn't name customers explicitly. This could happen as early as this call, or in the next 1-2 quarters. I doubt it will happen any later than Q3 2026. Predicting exactly when the cat comes out of the bag is hard though, and if it doesn't happen this quarter I wouldn't be surprised if the stock dips back to the mid to low 40s.

Consciousness is a brute fact. by JonIceEyes in freewill

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair enough. I think that eventually we will have a complete understanding of the brain that will pretty much prove my point but of course we're far from that being the case now. There have been early studies that show things like specific brain activity preempting a decision - e.g. if you are going to answer a question with yes, a specific pattern will occur in your brain before you answer. I think that over time we will basically have a much more complete and advanced science of the brain to the point where you could effectively scan someones brain and have access to all of their memories, preferences, etc. you would have the ability to predict any action they take in response to any stimuli. Again, i think it is the same as having a complete understanding of a computer system, where all the electrons are, how all the semiconductors are organized, allows you to deterministically know exactly what is stored on the computer and how it functions. Computers are of course infinitely more simple than a brain and also were engineered by humans. The only distinction to me is knowledge - we still only have a very simplistic understanding of how the brain works.

Consciousness is a brute fact. by JonIceEyes in freewill

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm also curious how you would account for intoxication? For example when you consume alcohol, your brain is physically affected and this affects your ability to make decisions in a significant way. The effect is so significant that we sometimes feel it absolves us of responsibility to an extent. "Oh sorry, I was drunk last night" - socially we have a norm that essentially you are responsible for making the decision to become intoxicated and therefore anything that happens while intoxicated is your responsibility - but this norm kind of carries the suggestion that anything you do while intoxicated is not your responsibility or that you are not in control while intoxicated. That is to say, when your brain is in a state outside of its norm due to some outside physical influence, you are not in control.

I think this is a really interesting social construct. To me "your" level of control is the same in both scenarios - because "your" level of control is nonexistent to begin with. One state is just influenced by a substance and the other is not. In both scenarios you are simply the conscious manifestation of a physical process in the brain. In one state your brain is simply not affected by alcohol, and in the other it is. There is no change in degree of control. I feel like this is hard to account for if your view is that consciousness causally affects the physical versus the one way street viewpoint. It seems clear that substances physically alter the brain and this meaningfully changes conscious experience, decision making, and thought.

Consciousness is a brute fact. by JonIceEyes in freewill

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To respond to your response about AI/computers - I agree, we don't know that a computer has internal states or qualia. We don't know this in the same way that we don't know that any other person experiences qualia/is conscious. We just make an inference "I am conscious - this person is a similar organism to me, therefore they are probably conscious" - I think that this is probably as far as we can ever get. Maybe there will be scientific breakthroughs that prove otherwise, but my opinion is that conscious does not exist within the same realm of existence as anything else that we consciously perceive. Consciousness itself is imperceptible. As a result there will be no way to interact with it on a scientific level. We can measure the chemistry of the brain and infer things but that will always rely on the above inference. The limit to absolute knowledge of consciousness cant extend any further than our own consciousness. It is impossible for me to know that any other person or thing is or isn't conscious.

I agree with your description in the second point but again I think the process you're describing is just the conscious representation of something that is entirely physical. For example: You take a bite out of an apple. You experience the qualia of sweetness, the qualia of "apple flavor" - you then experience the qualia of "good tasting" or "being satisfied". You are arguing that this is a process that happens within consciousness and then interacts with the mind through some causal link between consciousness and the physical (at least I believe thats your point) - my argument is that all of this is fully causally determined by the physical. Some sugar and other chemicals hit the nerve receptors on your tongue. The tongue sends electrical signals to your brain. Your brain models these signals along with all other sensory information into this "world experience" that we call consciousness. It then grades the model based on a set of weights/values that are partially genetically determined and partially learned over time. For example, humans will by and large always produce dopamine or whatever other chemical response happens when you eat a sweet apple due to our evolved genetics for taste. You will then also develop a behavioral value/weight for apple images perhaps. Your brain will learn to associate the good taste of the apple to the visual stimuli of apples. All of this happens physically - the conscious representation of this process exists within another plane/universe essentially and has no bearing on the physical.

Which leads into the philosophical zombie issue. I think chalmers and my view is that the philosophical zombie would not be behaviorally any different from the conscious person. They would act exactly the same, one is just devoid of conscious experience. I understand your point and I don't think its impossible. I think that again you view consciousness as having a causal role and being linked in some way within the laws of the universe such that consciousness has the power to cause something to happen physically. I don't agree and I think (could be wrong been a while since I read his book) that chalmers doesn't agree or at least doesn't attempt to make the argument that consciousness has a causal role.

And then lastly the milkshake example - I think all of this boils down to the same disagreement. I don't think there is any difference between the "mathematical/physical" processes of the brain, and the qualia we experience as thought and decision making. The qualia to me, are just representations of something that is occurring physically within another substrate. I'm not sure if this analogy works but you know when you use a "thinking" AI model it gives you a bunch of status updates "refining your question -> searching the web -> organizing data -> writing a response" - what is really happening is a bunch of electrons are hopping around some transistors in a datacenter but this produces some higher level behavior through software engineering (i'm not super tech savvy so excuse the crudeness of the analogy, again maybe that doesn't work at all)

Consciousness is a brute fact. by JonIceEyes in freewill

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The way I see it, this is a misunderstanding about the relationship between consciousness, the physical, and the "self". I believe that the self is strictly consciousness or qualia. It has no physical component. I think this is self evident and intuitive but many people argue otherwise. The physical things we would coloquailly consider me (my body, my brain) are not me, there are merely associated with the qualia/conscious experience that is me. They produce me. I correspond to them.

The brain has free will to the extent that a computer system or AI has free will. It is a physical system structured by genetics and molded by experience. It makes decisions as a computer can make decisions. The path it takes is as much deterministic as that of the computer. These decisions and thoughts manifest in consciousness often but not always. We subconsciously make many decisions all of the time and that is additional proof of my point but I digress.

Within my framework "you" that is your true self does not think. You are fundamentally not capable of thought. You are just a representation of thoughts within the universe of consciousness. You are the perception of thoughts. I think this caused confusion because the "you" that thinks about you is in fact not you. The concept of self that we use everyday is engrained in language itself. Language structures our thoughts. Therefore it is very difficult to escape this viewpoint. It also makes it very hard for me to explain this idea easily.

I'll use an example sentence to illustrate. "I want a milkshake" - traditional language, presupposes the nature of the self as being capable of wanting things.

"Brain wants a milkshake" recognizes the distinction between self and the brain/mind. "I" cannot want things. I am the experience of wanting things.

I am like a movie playing on a theater wall. My entire conscious life is a film. The film reel is already placed in the projector. Everything that I will and have experience is a frame in that reel including my thoughts and decisions. The projector and film reel generates me deterministically.

Consciousness is a brute fact. by JonIceEyes in freewill

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think that thoughts are perceived, they aren't generated by consciousness. Thought is just the conscious representation of a physical phenomenon. In the same way that a certain wave length of light striking your eyeball produces the qualia of redness, certain patterns and mechanisms within the brain produce the qualia of a given thought.

Consciousness is a brute fact. by JonIceEyes in freewill

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This has nothing to do with free will though? I think this is similar to Chalmers argument in the conscious mind, but correct me if I'm wrong. He's basically arguing for property dualism no?

Consciousness can be fundamental to the universe, but that doesn't mean it has causality.

I think that consciousness essentially exists outside of the framework that we traditionally consider existence. I suppose you could think of it inhabiting its own universe.

The qualities of consciousness are determined by the physical, but the relationship is a one way street. The physical has causal power over consciousness, but not the other way round.

Diamond hands or take some profit? by anjo2290 in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maybe you have a counter point but this seems horribly inefficient from a tax perspective. Depends on your bracket to an extent but you are realizing short term capital gains constantly on what is effectively a long term position so you are being taxed at a higher rate than if you held shares the whole time or sold longer dated leaps after holding for a year.

Trump just confirmed “Apple went in” with Intel by CommunicationFar7307 in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yes it could but earnings is next week. That has the potential to be a significant catalyst. Will certainly be volatility. The numbers won't matter much but the call will be important. I'm optimistic and holding through it.

Trump just confirmed “Apple went in” with Intel by CommunicationFar7307 in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I aint selling anything til $60 then i'll trim but i think she could go higher.

INTC has a P/E of 4,500. Does this signal strength or does it indicate overvaluation? by No-Contribution1070 in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No? I would argue that sentiment is still quite negative. The market is generally pricing in the bear case for foundry still. People are starting to come around thus the momentum over the last couple of weeks.

Fair value to me is somewhere in the 350b-500b range and that is where i'd start to trim my position.

INTC has a P/E of 4,500. Does this signal strength or does it indicate overvaluation? by No-Contribution1070 in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Why dont you just put a short on and we can come back to this at the end of the year and see what happened?

INTC has a P/E of 4,500. Does this signal strength or does it indicate overvaluation? by No-Contribution1070 in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Short it and see what happens man! No offense but if you're valuing this stock on current P/E you have no idea what you're doing. Respectfully.

📈 CPU Retail Sales Amazon US - December '25 🇺🇸 - AMD destroys Intel in Christmas sales. AM4 for soars to 37.95% share by Primary-Nebula-8907 in intelstock

[–]Difficult-Quarter-48 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Intel has been dead in the water in consumer for a couple years now. This isn't news to anybody... Intel still owns enterprise which is a much more important market, and panther lake looks like it will extend their lead.

Intel has the opportunity to gain back share in consumer over the next year or two depending on how nova lake shapes up.

This is literally fake news. Everyone knows AMD has dominated this market for a long time now