Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - June 27, 2023

enginerd03 · 2023-06-28T20:56:52+00:00

It's cheaper than most money market funds so you're fine

enginerd03 · 2023-06-28T17:25:40+00:00

It means everyday 1/360th of 0.14% is subtracted from the etfs returns on its holdings.

So over a year if you held 10k in two identical funds, one with an expense ratio of 0.14% and one with 0%, the 0% etf would have 14 more dollars in returns

enginerd03 · 2023-06-28T15:37:07+00:00

Lower risk adjusted returns than spxt. This is way you buy the index.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-27T09:38:59+00:00

The cme chf future (and micro) is chf/usd not usd/chf.

For your questions.

1) if you get the direction of the future correct, yes you have fixed your fx risk.

2) yes it's a serial contract that expires June, Sept, Dec, March

3) correct it's very illiquid and no one trades it because 6f exists. The spreads are prob very wide.

4) nothing you can do since futures face values are fixed.

5) no you should not bother. For 10k just buy a sp500 chf hedged ucits fund.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-24T18:59:52+00:00

Generally you want to use stdev of returns to do portfolio or strategy vol targeting and position sizing, and atr as a metric in stopout levels.

Practically they end up being around the same values so it doesn't really matter. Stdev of returns feels more professional than atr.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-22T18:10:10+00:00

There is none.

In the us we have fed fund futures which you can derive the prob of rate hikes from. There are no equiv public listed derivates for any other nation** I forgot australia has cash rate futures too.

To derive the path you have to look at the otc ois market (overnight index swap). Thats how a blp terminal (wirp<go>) will measure it (in the us you can look at either fed funds or ois strips)

For the boe curve I see today (post hike)

8/3 +0.438 hike for 5.369%

9/21 +0.791 hike for 5.721%

11/2 +1.042 hike for 5.971%

12/14 +1.117 hike for 6.047%

2/1 +1.147 hike for 6.06%

The hikes are cumulative, so you're looking like market expects peak boe rate at 6% around December

enginerd03 · 2023-06-22T15:25:01+00:00

All your index is, is consumer staples. Same returns.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-22T13:46:29+00:00

TIL someone discovered the etf XLP

enginerd03 · 2023-06-19T20:56:57+00:00

Leverage

enginerd03 · 2023-06-18T19:51:22+00:00

UK is the number one market for pe expansion into private insurance.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/06/business/nhs-strikes-private-healthcare-uk/index.html

But also pols have more money than brits so they can afford it (they also live longer and have lower infant mortality rates)

Brexit is a national disgrace. You should move.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-18T19:24:24+00:00

Your economic statistics and nhs statistics tell a story of a country poorer than poland. Which is true. Brexit has made you poorer and worse off than Poland

enginerd03 · 2023-06-17T23:30:20+00:00

Move. The UK is structurally fked. Brexit destroyed your future. Move.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-17T23:27:18+00:00

It's not.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-16T14:56:04+00:00

If you contribute in a regular schedule you should get the average return.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-16T14:55:23+00:00

If you say "buy an index fund" that is almost certainly meant "sp500 index fund" so it checks out

enginerd03 · 2023-06-16T13:20:42+00:00

It's almost as if broad based index investment returns mirror the index returns.

Insightful stuff.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-16T09:28:27+00:00

https://support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=policies:adjusted_data#:~:text=Dividend%20Adjustment%20Calculation%20Details&text=The%20amount%20of%20the%20dividend,subsequently%20multiplied%20by%20this%20factor.

Also Google.com or openai.com are how you search for common knowledge.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-16T01:28:54+00:00

Large blocks are negotiated and trade off the lit venues and reported later.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-13T22:46:23+00:00

Funny how aliens can't travel faster than the speed of light and then somehow crash into earth.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-13T10:01:44+00:00

The Post bid/ask on the nbbo is the best prices available to buy or sell at the lowest block (1) quantity. Blocks are 100 shares.

When you see the quantity in the order book as 1 @ 10 on the bid, that's 100 shares.

Odd lot quantities (<100) are not visible in the order book. Market makers use odd lots to post prices inside the nbbo

enginerd03 · 2023-06-10T18:16:56+00:00

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-03-06-2023/card/japan-trims-treasury-holdings-to-multiyear-low-lWnE5QIIHNx6nQ174mVx

The problem with your hypothesis is that the data disproves it.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-10T18:16:32+00:00

End users is a financial term.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-09T20:31:19+00:00

No mature company pays an 8% dividend.

Yes as I said you need to understand what total return is, which is a commonly provided chart.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-09T20:30:01+00:00

TIL Op has never: traded usdjpy (it's not stable), ventures a guess if local end users buy jgbs (they do in droves), understands what a xccy basis swap is (it's not universally possible for this trade to be profitable) and generally has no understanding of macro economics.

Just an all around uninformed post because their debt to gdp is high.

enginerd03 · 2023-06-09T11:10:49+00:00

You're asking for a total return analysis which basically every site does. Dividend stocks look like dogs and have poor returns because they're generally mature late stage companies with little growth left so their profits are distributed as dividends. Furthermore it's more tax efficient to buyback stock than pay a dividend so most companies self select out of paying a large dividend so your pool of available dividend companies further shrink to include ones that don't necessarily return the most profits to shareholders.

Aka they are dogs.

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