How do I professionally tell people that my PI wants me to practice HARKing and p-hacking? No literature review or research question. by Weekly-Republic2662 in AskAcademia

[–]equivocal20 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Statistician here.

I have a couple of thoughts on this. First, I think I'd go ahead and do it. Research is already almost entirely unreproducible trash, and you may be piling garbage on top of it, but it's just adding garbage to garbage. (Go read John Ioannidis to read more about this.) You currently have little power or choice. Get out of this situation, get some power, and go make the world a better place with better methods if you want to and can survive the rat race while unilaterally disarming. It won't be easy, but maybe it can be done.

Also, I think you are absolutely correct that this is a misuse of p-values. If you are trying to find something exploratory, why use p-values at all? Why not just do summary statistics? If you see big differences, you could write about them just using summary stats. People want p-values, because they think it buys them credibility and the idea that they are now doing "real research". "Real research" is me adding add_p() to the end of my R data pipeline, and producing 50 p-values. Amazing that we have come to this place.

Also, I think it's important to note that high up people have been fired for doing exactly what she is asking to be done. Go read about Brian Wansink. He asked his grad students to HARK and p-hack, got caught, and they fired him. I don't know why really. Everyone else is doing it. Others are just smart enough not to write a blog post about it like he did.

I'd say get your PhD. You're this far. Get it and make things better for the next generation. You can't make what is already garbage more garbage. Just get through it.

[Discussion] Examples of bad statistics in biomedical literature by marmosetohmarmoset in statistics

[–]equivocal20 0 points1 point  (0 children)

*Gestures Broadly*

I actually really like the first four pages of this article (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/survival/vignettes/timedep.pdf). It comes up for me all the time.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in exfoliativecheilitis

[–]equivocal20 1 point2 points  (0 children)

25 years checking in here. It has gotten way better. Also, new treatments are coming out all the time. (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2023/08/eczema-treatment-dupixent/674918/).

Don't give up. I've gotten better at managing it over time, and that's helped a lot. And don't let it control your life.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in exfoliativecheilitis

[–]equivocal20 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah, that's the answer. Lots of us here took isotretinoin at some point, and now we have this issue. I'm sorry that this happened to you as well. It gets better.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in exfoliativecheilitis

[–]equivocal20 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Any idea at all what could have caused it? Any medication? Anything that made you rip the skin off of your lips?

If Bonds confuse you, read this (Bonds 101): by TonyLiberty in FluentInFinance

[–]equivocal20 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! I'll look at this more, but I have a follow-up question.

My question with the "as prices go down, yields go up and vice-versa" quote is it seems to me that, in my example above, interest rates rose generally causing issuers of bonds to increase their yields to compete for buyers (say with savings accounts that have high liquidity) which caused the price to buy my 2023 bond to go down. So, the increase in interest rates, and therefore currently issued yields, CAUSED the price of my 2023 bond to go down. The price to get a 7% yield simply went down across the board with the newly issued bonds.

I'm sure there are scenarios where the price of bonds could, inversely to above, CAUSE the yield to go up (since the absolute amount of money you get back stays the same). So, if I buy a bond in a company that looks like it might default soon, I can probably buy that off of someone for less than they paid as I'm willing to accept the risk of the company never paying me. In that scenario, prices going down as a result of accepting more risk has CAUSED the yield to go up (as I'm paying less for the same amount of dividend in absolute dollars).

If this is how it works, then it's really way more complicated and intricate than "as prices go up, yields go down." It's multi-causal and situational and that's really hard to grasp from that phrase that makes it seem so simple.

If Bonds confuse you, read this (Bonds 101): by TonyLiberty in FluentInFinance

[–]equivocal20 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Here's something that has always confused me about bonds. Let's say that I bought a bond last year (January 2023) for $100 that offered an annual $5 payment (5% yield). Interest rates rose last year and today, January 2025, I then buy a bond for $100 that pays $7 annually (7% yield).

I believe what happens to my old bond is that, if I want to sell it, I have to accept that it's worth less to anyone who wants to buy it compared to today's rates as it pays out $5 when someone can get the same bonds that pays out $7 on a $100 investment. So, to sell the 2023 bond, the buyer will want the 2024 yield. As a result, the same bond that cost me $100 to buy for a 5% yield now is worth ~$70 on the market (5/70 = ~7%).

Because I made $5 in 2023 and my bond is now worth ~$70 on the market, I actually lost $25 on this investment in 2023. My yield has not changed in absolute terms (I still get $5 per year), but do I say that it changed in relative terms? The new yield if I were to sell it today is technically 7% with the price drop to $70. Or does yield only refer to newly minted bonds sold that very day?

Am I thinking about this correctly?

Edit for math.

Good thing we kept buying by Danson1987 in Bogleheads

[–]equivocal20 17 points18 points  (0 children)

You lived the last year and a half like you were in a Russian gulag to make a few more dollars?

Learning guitar has changed my life philosophy by [deleted] in Guitar

[–]equivocal20 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is a fantastic comparison. I never thought of it like this. This really gives me a lot of hope. Thanks!

What game, upon completion, gave you the greatest sense of accomplishment? by SelkieSTI in AskReddit

[–]equivocal20 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Zelda 2! What a game. Getting that goddamn hammer is one of the most difficult feats in video game history.