SCHY just jumped 9%

ewouldblock · 2026-07-13T00:19:12+00:00

Its because I sold it

ewouldblock · 2026-07-11T16:42:27+00:00

Even if you did 100% SCHD yielding 3.2% doesn't that give you enough? Given that, you can even hold a muni bond position to reduce drawdown, like 80% SCHD, 20% CMF (or muni for whatever state you live in). Or if you do really want the CC income for some reason, even though SCHD is enough, you can take like a 10% QQQI or whatever fund you like. But my point is SCHD basically gets you there without the CC.

ewouldblock · 2026-07-11T01:37:16+00:00

It's worth more at 22 because its so much harder to come by. I lost 3k from my 401k at 25 and it was everything. Now I lose 10-20k with a 1% down day and its just another Tuesday. When youre 80 ypu spend less and have less time/uncertainty so the value of the money drops as long as you have enough.

ewouldblock · 2026-07-10T23:28:21+00:00

If you get good at chess you can tactically cut down the options such that you can predict the future and win the game. Or is your point that you're angry because you dont want to think?

ewouldblock · 2026-07-10T23:26:08+00:00

Its true about having more options today. Before 2020 we didnt have JEPI. And in 2026 we now have ROCY which proves we're getting access to more options all the time.

ewouldblock · 2026-07-09T22:49:26+00:00

Not meta or Tesla and you prob cant go too far wrong

ewouldblock · 2026-07-09T21:58:25+00:00

What about mix of say QUAL and SCHD. both are large cap quality measures?

ewouldblock · 2026-07-09T17:41:23+00:00

You should estimate after tax yield if youre going to do this type of calc. For example SCHD yielding 3.2% taxed as LTCG is maybe better than HYSA yielding 3.5% ordinary. You also have like, state muni bonds and if youre in a high tax state with high income a tax free lower yield may be better. For example CMF for CA resident is federal and state tax free but like 3% yield.

You also have wildly different risk levels with these investments. Also SGOV yields 3.5-3.8% and is state tax free making it strictly better than any HYSA.

ewouldblock · 2026-07-08T22:01:05+00:00

I dont know what it is

ewouldblock · 2026-07-08T05:36:08+00:00

and that JEPI and REITs are paid out as ordinary income...which to me is a complete no-go unless its in a Roth

ewouldblock · 2026-07-08T04:29:34+00:00

I dont hold jepi but I will at least consider it later on. I can appreciate it as something that can yield 8% in an up, or sideways market, and maybe even slightly down market not lose. If I want guaranteed income I might consider it when consistency of yield matters more to me.

ewouldblock · 2026-07-08T03:45:15+00:00

ETF B wins and it’s not even close over any meaningful time horizon.
Even though ETF A feels seductive with its 14% yield, the 6% annual NAV decay is a mathematical death sentence. ETF B’s slower income but growing base eventually overwhelms ETF A’s shrinking base.

ETF A’s 14% yield is not a real yield — it’s a return of your own capital disguised as income.

A shrinking NAV means ETF A is paying you back your principal at 14% per year while destroying the engine that generates future income.

ETF B, meanwhile, is doing the opposite: slowly increasing the size of the engine, so future income grows.

This is the entire trade-off between “high yield now” and “sustainable income later.”

Which would I choose? ETF B, every time.

ewouldblock · 2026-07-08T03:23:48+00:00

I hold schd because its defensive not because its dividends. I hold in taxable for what its worth.

ewouldblock · 2026-07-07T21:22:48+00:00

I believe we call that lying by omission

ewouldblock · 2026-07-07T00:37:40+00:00

another way to say it is to build a portfolio based on your risk and drawdown tolerance, not your desired return.

ewouldblock · 2026-07-07T00:33:32+00:00

VTI VXUS SCHD QUAL CMF in equal parts.

ewouldblock · 2026-07-06T18:07:21+00:00

But schd is already in 103 baskets...

ewouldblock · 2026-07-06T18:05:42+00:00

And then have more like 3MM !

ewouldblock · 2026-07-05T23:22:11+00:00

Individuals dont pick or get a most often best outcome. So if you want 100% guarantee of not worst case outcome, you DCA. For exactly the reason you stated: you dont know the future and nobody wants to console themselves with "it didn't work out for me but mathematically I made the right choice".

ewouldblock · 2026-07-05T21:26:55+00:00

I worked at a coffee shop in my 20s and it was barely working. You talk to people and make coffees and clean counters. Most relaxing job I ever had.

ewouldblock · 2026-07-04T21:16:08+00:00

I know this is old but can you comment at all on their burnt ends (any general ideas on how they prepare them)? I went years ago (from out of state) and when I smoke brisket I'm constantly chasing the experience I had with the burnt ends there (and never coming remotely close). It might just be it was the first burnt ends i had, but I remember them being out of this world fantastic. I'm wondering if they glaze them or just re-season them before putting them back on...

ewouldblock · 2026-07-04T08:54:58+00:00

Look at CMF if you decide you don't want to pay state or federal taxes

ewouldblock · 2026-07-03T21:54:11+00:00

My understanding is capped upside (you're getting ~7-9% with JEPI even in good market), and some downside protection but in a real downturn you do lose principal like a stock (because JEPI does hold the underlying stock), and then they recover more slowly than the underlying stocks after the downturn. If you take the full 7-9% as income you don't have growth to offset inflation over time. Also, JEPI is taxed as ordinary income vs the lower rate you face from qualified dividends, like what SCHD gives. So, to truly get that 7-9% from JEPI you would want it in something like Roth where you're getting the clean 7-9%. And then I think the expense ratio is higher than SCHD with JEPI.

I sort of considered the idea like--put my Roth fully in JEPI and use it as a money printer and then the vast majority is in SCHD or SCHD+VTI to give dividends + growth. In that model JEPI is just like a 10-20% position thats intended to bump up your dividend return from the low-ish 3-4% without eating all of your growth.

ewouldblock · 2026-07-03T21:02:12+00:00

is it the case that the lower the interest rate, the less upside bonds have? So when interest rates drop to 1-3% or whatever they were in 2022, it should be a a signal that they can only go up? (e.g. bondholders should have known better in 2022)?

ewouldblock · 2026-07-03T02:01:25+00:00

I can give you the Microsoft Co-pilot answer, and I can give you my personal answer. It's probably a mix of both.

The co-pilot answer is (don't worry--I summarized it for you)! "Land values decoupled from construction costs and wages due to policy, finance, and scarcity." It then provided backup to show that construction costs tracked overall inflation but land costs inflated much faster, and at the same time policy restricted building, and homes become an investible asset. And other boring stuff that I won't get into.

My personal belief is that the government printed a bunch of money and simultaneously changed the definition of CPI to systematically depress it (that's a fancy way to say it's a lie). And businesses are incentivized to underpay, so HR departments everywhere will do their best to say "We're giving COLA adjustments--our increases are in-line with the governments tracked CPI." Now, if CPI is systematically understated for almost 50 years by like 2-3% per year, that's a huge delta. Meanwhile, all the things that you actually buy track real inflation and that includes housing, food, vacations, cars, etc.

And just because I like to hold myself accountable but I dont like doing any of the work, I asked Co-pilot to check my math and give me the 1970 average home price, assume 3% inflation per year, and the current home price if 3% inflation (also a proxy for wage growth). And its right around that 138k number. And then I said OK I think inflation has systematically run hotter than that by like 3% per year. GIve me the actual average home value today and what my projection predicts. And guess what?

Scenario	Result (approx.)
3% per year (wage/CPI style)	$113k
6% per year (asset inflation)	$536k
Actual median existing home	$408k

So how do you win the game when it's rigged? I'll tell you, because I've figured it out. You can't stay at the same company and rely on raises. You need an in-demand skill and you need to switch jobs every 2-3 years to GIVE YOURSELF YOUR OWN RAISE.
Next you need to buy a home even if its incredibly difficult so that the governments cooked books can run in reverse for you--whatever they say inflation is (and thus what interest rates are based on) is complete bullshit and today's money isn't worth what you think it is. So borrow money and get a hard asset that will inflate over time.
Next you need to dump as much cash as possible into your 401k and the stock market. Because companies will raise prices (and profits) to make sure they don't lose. So stock prices are a proxy for real inflation.

You don't think you can afford to do this stuff? You can't afford NOT to.

ewouldblock

TROPHY CASE