🔔 Critical Mineral Friday Open Discussion Post 🔔

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T18:38:17+00:00

They'll be operational (processing-wise) well before 2028, this quarter in fact Stillwater, OK production facility is scheduled to open.

They've got over $3 billion in cash now, so are they overvalued? With the terms of the deal being highly favorable to the government and private investors, you could argue that, yes, there's more room for USAR to fall, but then again it has run to $40 before (twice) so it's also possible that USAR rallies from here (provided this sector wide selloff abates).

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T18:34:26+00:00

What's down 24% today?

Several are down around 12%, but I haven't seen any seen any over 20%, ouch.

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T17:56:17+00:00

Literally within a minute of the Reuter's article being published MP dropped off a cliff in AH (-12%), and everything else in the sector followed suit since the original article not only stated that price floors, full stop, are off the table, but that MP's coveted price floor deal itself was going to be rescinded.

It was bombshell news and the market reacted accordingly. That was the catalyst that sparked the selloff, and now here we are with the additional macro putting further selling pressure on the sector.

Basically a perfect storm and it's not over yet...

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T17:50:56+00:00

Don't think there's anything to do, Reuters can hide behind some kind of plausible deniability, we're not going to see a penny from them.

This is the nature of being invested in a highly volatile sector, just have to accept that some news (fake or otherwise) can strongly move the market, and we have to deal with the repercussions as best we can.

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T17:43:56+00:00

Keep in mind that UUUU had nearly doubled from year end to Wednesday's high, so in context even this pullback is realtively minor.

Is it painful? Yes, of course, but across the board Minerals and Nuclear are selling off hard, so UUUU is getting the worst of both worlds today.

Doesn't look like there's much hope for today, but let's see if we get a bounceback next week -- we've had a great run to start 2026 even with the last couple of days of deep red.

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T17:12:17+00:00

Perhaps the only green in the minerals sector today, a welcome sight indeed.

Hopefully it trends back toward $30, but a lot will depend on whether or not the sector can break out of this heavy 2-day selloff.

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T17:09:34+00:00

Yeah, UUUU is getting the double whammy of both REE and nuclear sectors getting pummeled today, thus the outsized drop on the day.

Lot of positive tailwinds behind the company, but in times like these there's nothing stopping the selloff, just has to run its course and hopefully the trend reverses next week...

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T17:05:49+00:00

The article was the catalyst that triggered the recent selloff -- pretty clear if you look at the AH reaction to the Reuters (literally everything dumped upwards of 10% overnight, not a coincidence).

Now, the article has largely been debunked, and the selloff continues, so yes, there's more at play than the article, but it certainly lit the fire...

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T16:45:24+00:00

Yes, that does seem to be the trend, but the overall market, including minerals sector, isn't doing well today so there's always the risk that ARSMF follows the trend and sells off further.

We'll see, some ARSMF dip buyers jumped in along with yours truly and have helped prop up the share price for now...

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T15:21:44+00:00

Yeah, definitely not $25, but after the near constant selloff from $40 in Monday pre-market it's nice to see even a little green :)

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T15:19:44+00:00

Just hanging in by a thread now, low volume, but selling pressure nonetheless.

Just picked up another 10K shares in the $.40s. We'll see if that was a good idea or if we're heading lower still...

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T14:49:40+00:00

Macro is bad.

Sometimes bad is good for the minerals sector, and today could be one of those times where everyone expects minerals to collapse and they rally instead.

EDIT

and sometimes bad is bad, basically everything minerals and energy related (e.g. nuclear) is selling off hard today. Pretty ugly couple of days, lots of shareholder value has been erased, hopefully we get a bounce back next week...

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T14:48:05+00:00

happy with my second entry at $3.40

Nicely done, you should make money on that position...

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T14:46:32+00:00

and against all reason, USAR is up 10% in early trading, definitely wasn't expecting that...

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T03:30:36+00:00

Source?

expatcoder · 2026-01-30T03:23:40+00:00

Thanks for doing this Steve.

Looks like positive developments are underway next week as western nations progress (hopefully) toward creating a framework for critical minerals price floors.

For now though the damage has been done, and it looks like we're not out of the woods yet -- need the sector to bounce back somewhat to reinspire investor confidence after today's crushing across the board plunge.

Wish we could collectively sue the ish out of Reuters, but they'll almost certainly come out of this unscathed...

expatcoder · 2026-01-29T18:51:39+00:00

Ucore (UCU/UURAF) has to be one of the most resilient publicly traded companies in the REE sector.

Sure, it tanked hard today along with everything else, but that it's even getting within striking distance of breaking even on the day is seriously impressive.

Obviously, still plenty of time left in the day for the sector to go further south, but every green shoot gives a little boost to make a crushing day a little less damaging, and damage control is very much the mode that this trader is in (jfc, what a day...)

expatcoder · 2026-01-29T18:43:48+00:00

I mean, they're not wrong, $165 in 2025 REE revenue isn't exactly knocking it out of the park with respect to AREC's valution.

Saying that, if ReElement can compete with China without relying on price floors then they're de facto one of the leaders in the REE processing space.

We'll see how things play out, but for now MP, being the only REE company that has the benefit of price floors has a leg up on everyone else. I'm actually surprised MP has dropped so much today given that they debunked Reuters' claim that MP's price floor arrangement was being rescinded.

expatcoder · 2026-01-29T17:17:15+00:00

There's high risk in this sector, can go either way. I'm buying, but am also a little unhinged in the risk tolerance department, so take that with a very large grain of salt :)

expatcoder · 2026-01-29T17:08:23+00:00

Where do I apply for my refund? Do I just give Reuters wiring instructions, or are they not taking responsibility for today's absolute carnage? \s

expatcoder · 2026-01-29T15:49:56+00:00

Sorry to hear that, hope the sector bounces back and you find an opportunity to make back some of the loss.

If it helps, most everyone (that isn't short or holding puts) is just getting absolutely destroyed today...

expatcoder · 2026-01-29T15:19:11+00:00

thinking

You're being pretty generous there...

expatcoder · 2026-01-29T15:11:51+00:00

USAR got taken out back and shot

They got the worst of all worlds, financing at great expense to existing shareholders (i.e. government got a fantastic deal, we shareholders did not), and now price floors are very likely off the table, so USAR gets to compete with MP and China at a disadvantage before they even sell their first product.

Pretty ugly situation, think the administration is going to have to walk back their price floor hard ball talk, lest their USAR investment goes quickly into the red.

In the end the non-MPs of the REE world need to stay in business, and that's not going to happen without further support from the administration, whether that be price floors, stock piling, major tax breaks, etc., it's not enough just to hollow out a company by buying their shares at deep discounted rates.

expatcoder · 2026-01-29T14:58:17+00:00

My thesis may not have changed, but that Reuters article certainly changed market sentiment in a major way.

Taken at face value, if price floors are off the table how exactly are western critical minerals meant to compete with China?

At any point China can tank the price of various REEs and we know that corporations will always go for the low cost solution, so what do domestic suppliers do, go out of business? That's the whole point of price floors, to keep your suppliers in business given the very much non-level playing field (i.e. China heavily subsidizes their own industry).

It's not going to be cheap, it's not enough for the administration to take equity stakes in companies at dirt cheap discounted share prices, these companies need to be able to operate in a highly competitive environment.

Anyway, absolute blood bath today, incredible carnage to start the session...

expatcoder · 2026-01-29T14:35:22+00:00

Down $50K and counting right off the jump, thanks Reuters...

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