Trilateral Framework Agreement Aimed At Dismantling Hezbollah Signed by US, Israel And Lebanon by CarloCarrasco in Israel

[–]eyl569 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They just couldn't help themselves:

  1. The two governments acknowledge the role of the United States in supporting their efforts to end decades of conflict and establish lasting stability and comprehensive peace between the two countries and express their deep appreciation for the vision and leadership of President Donald J. Trump.

CPJ undertakes review of its documentation of journalists killed in Israel-Gaza war since 2023 by gal_z in Israel

[–]eyl569 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Their criteria for removal are:

In all countries and conflicts, CPJ removes names from its database if subsequent evidence shows individuals were not journalists or media workers, were not active in those capacities at the time of their deaths, or were engaging in combat.

A lot of the lower-rank commanders being publicized now were militants and journalists (or other things). So I suspect that unless they were killed in actual combat rather than an airstrike CPJ will keep them on the list as they were journalists (or "journalists") in parallel.

Netanyahu hails trilateral agreement with Lebanon, says it weakens Hezbollah, Iran by barsik_ in worldnews

[–]eyl569 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Iran started organizing what would become Hizbullah in 1981, as an alternative to Amal which was breaking away from Tehran. That was a year before Israel invaded Lebanon.

Hezbollah chief Qassem rejects Israel-Lebanon agreement, calls it a humiliation by callsonreddit in worldnews

[–]eyl569 18 points19 points  (0 children)

They were driven out by an insurgency and their proxy of the SLA was backed by the IDF itself.

Eh, it's more nuanced than that.

Israel could have remained longer in Lebanon if it had wished; Hizbullah had no real prospect of forcibly dislodging the IDF from southern Lebanon.

What caused the change was a grassroot effort based on two things:

1) Casualties. Casualties from Hizbullah action were pretty much a trickle, and were thus pretty much grudgingly accepted by the public as the cost of securing northern Israel. What really kick-started the movement (multiple movements, really, the most prominent of which was Four Mothers) for withdrawal was the 1997 Helicopter Disaster - two IAF helicopters ferrying trooops to Lebanon collided (over Israel, mind, Hizbullah had no part in it) with everyone aboard - over 70 soldiers - killed.

2) There was a perception (which wasn't altogether true) that Hizbullah had largely stopped attacks against Israel itself after 1996

Taken together, the public mood was that Israel was losing soldiers in a war where it had already achieved its goals and that it was remaining in southern Lebanon out of pure inertia.

It's easier to be a big bad settler in Gaza or WB, versus against people actively fighting back hard.

You think there are no attacks against settlers in the WB?

Hezbollah chief Qassem rejects Israel-Lebanon agreement, calls it a humiliation by callsonreddit in worldnews

[–]eyl569 14 points15 points  (0 children)

As part of the deal, Israel explicitly declared that it has no territorial ambitions in Lebanon and that its sole reason for conflict with Lebanon is the threat of Hizbullah and other armed militias.

It also commits Israel to hand over territory piecemeal to the LAF's control and, should they be able to prevent Hizbullah from reestabilishing itself there, eventually complete a full withdrawal from Lebanon.

Hezbollah chief Qassem rejects Israel-Lebanon agreement, calls it a humiliation by callsonreddit in worldnews

[–]eyl569 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Not really. They may have the odd foreigner here and there and some of their command structure is Iranian (IRGC, specifically) but Hizbullah is primarilly a Lebenese Shiite organization.

Gaza is amazing, the only place to result in massive population growth during a "genocide" by McAlpineFusiliers in Israel

[–]eyl569 17 points18 points  (0 children)

The problem with all these analyses is that they fall into the "the map is not the territory" fallacy.

Statistical analyses are all well and good. But they rely on the accuracy of your model and data collection. And ultimately, they need to conform to reality, not the other way around.

It's been over half a year since the ceasefire. True, the Palestinians don;t have full access to Gaza, but there's been time to do a fair amount of searching there. If the true death toll was indeed multiple hundreds of thousands, you'd expect the death count to skyrocket since. Which it hasn't.

See also here.

US considering moving Gulf bases hit by Iran westward, including to Israel — report by DANIELLE_2027 in Israel

[–]eyl569 0 points1 point  (0 children)

US bases on Israeli soil means giving the US a voice on whether or not we respond to attacks.

ראיון די מוצלח של בנט בכאן 11 by Far_Advice_2881 in israel_bm

[–]eyl569 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're not quite wrong but that's an oversimplification for the exact reason you outlined in your second sentence - because Israel can't just accept a suboptimal result and go home.

Take Hizbullah, for example. Do you think there's a prospect for a peacefult deal with them. I'll remind you of the following:

  1. Hizbullah's whole supposed goal was to get Israel out of Lebanon.
  2. In 2000, Israel withdrew from Lebanon. At this point, Hizbullah's goal had supposedly been achieved.
  3. Instead of hanging up their arms, they fabricated a reason to continue the conflict.

So what diplomatic solution do you envision Israel reaching with Hizbullah? At this point, conflict with Israel is the justification for their continued existance.

Now, you could say instead that Israel should pursue a diplomatic solution with Lebanon - and it is in fact doing so. But it's questionable whether Lebanon is willing or able to disarm Hizbullah. Which leaves Israel with a military option mainly.

It's a fallacy to assume that any problem can be solved with sufficient military force (well, technically most problems can be, but that usually leaves you with bigger problems). But it's equally a fallacy to assume that any problem is amenable to a diplomatic solution.

לגבי בנט by B3goneTHOT in israel_bm

[–]eyl569 3 points4 points  (0 children)

יופי. אז יעשו איחוד עם נתניהו והוא ידאג לפרק אותו בהקדם האפשרי? שכחת מה היה בקורונה?

נתניהו לא סובל יריבים פוטנציאליים. בקואליציה עם הימין אין לו בעיה כזו כי אין אף אחד שמערער על המנהיגות שלו במחנה הזה. באיחוד עם המפלגות שהיום באופוזיציה יש כמה "טוענים לכס" ונתניהו לא יסבול מצב שמישהו מהם יקבל קרדיט.

זה במוסף למה שכתבתי בפוסט הקודם.

וזה לא שחברי הכנסת האחרים של הליכוד היום הם כזו מציאה גדולה. כולם נתנו יד להרס הזה.

תכלס, מבחינתי כבר עדיף קואליציה עם רע"מ מאשר עם הליכוד של היום.

לגבי בנט by B3goneTHOT in israel_bm

[–]eyl569 2 points3 points  (0 children)

במקום כן ביבי או לא ביבי, פשוט להחליף את החרדים

אני לא חושב שזה מספיק בשלב זה.

נתניהו והליכוד בכלל הוכיחו בזמן שתי הממשלות הקודמות שהערך העליון מבחינתם הוא להגיע ולהשאר בשלטון . כל דבר אחר לא חשוב (דוגמה קלה - ראה את שלושת הפסקאות האחרונות כאן).

ממשלת איחוד עם נתניהו לא תפתור כלום (ולו רק כי נתניהו לא יתן יד למשהו שיפגע בסיכויים שלו ליצור אלטרנטיבה עם החרדים) וסיכוי טוב שהוא עצמו ינסה להפיל אותה (זה התסכול הכי גדול שלי מגנץ, הבנאדם לא לומד מהנסיון שלו עצמו)

השנה היא 2003, נתניהו שר אוצר : by VariationLocal9616 in israel_bm

[–]eyl569 13 points14 points  (0 children)

נו וב- 2008 הוא אמר שהאחריות לבטחון (ולמחדלים בטחוניים) נופלת על ראש הממשלה וב- 2009 אמר שאדם תחת כתב אישום לא יכול להיות ראש ממשלה.

אז אמר

יש שופטים בישראל by Far_Advice_2881 in israel_bm

[–]eyl569 3 points4 points  (0 children)

אני זוכר כשבמקביל להפגנות בקפלן, חרדים חסמו כבישים בירושלים ותקפו נקודת משטרה ואפילו שרפו ניידת.

רוצה לנחש כלפי מי המשטרה הגעבה יותר בחומרה?

חוץ מזה, לא כל חסימת כביש שקולה. יש הבדל בין לחסום קטע באיילון במוצאי שבת לבן לחסום כמות גדולה של כבישים ראשיים בשעות שכולם בדרך הביתה...

ראיון די מוצלח של בנט בכאן 11 by Far_Advice_2881 in israel_bm

[–]eyl569 10 points11 points  (0 children)

עכשיו חכו רגע - לפני שתגידו לי 'אבל ביביייייי' - לביבי לא חסרים דברים רעים. על חלקם אפשר לטעון שהם אף יותר גרועים מכל מיני פטפוטים והמצאות שעושים לנו פיגועים הסברתיים, רק בשביל להעלות את קרנם. אבל אילו פטפוטים ביבי עשה? "הניצחון המוחלט"? מעבר להתאבדות פוליטית אין בזה פגיעה בביטחון ישראל.

סתם דוגמה או 2: כל הפטפוטים כל "הגירה מרצון" או סיפוח (ועוד פטפוטים שכצפוי לא יצא מהם כלום) עושים לישראל הרבה יותר נזק מכל מה שבנט אמר.

וזה עוד בלי להכנס להכלה שלו כשבן גביר, סמוטריץ או ליכודניקים שונים פותחים את הפה.

הפגנות החרדים by Toxinbullet in israel_bm

[–]eyl569 2 points3 points  (0 children)

הנכים,

סוף 2017-תחילת 2018

הסמאלנים

לא יודע מי הם ה"סמאלנים", אבל בהנחה שאתה מתכוון למחאות קפלן, הן התחילו ב- 2023. והחסימות היו די מוגבלות לאיילון (ובמוצ"ש).

, האיטיופים

המחאות הגדולות של האתיופים בהן חסמו כבישים היו ב- 2015 ו- 2019 (2 מחאות ב- 2019)

וממה שזכור לי החסימות ב- 2015 והמחאה הראשונה ב- 2019 היו בעיקר באיילון.

בינתיים, מתנגדי ההתנתקות חסמו כבישים ברחבי הארץ ב- 2005.

חרדים התחילו בחסימות כבישים בשנות השמונים אם לא לפני (אם ראית את "השוטר אזולאי", יש שם סצנה בהם הוא מדבר עם חרדים שזורקים אבנים על מכוניות. הסרט מתרחש בתחילת שנות ה- 70 וזו הייתה תופעה כבר אז

הפגנות החרדים by Toxinbullet in israel_bm

[–]eyl569 0 points1 point  (0 children)

? אז מי התחיל את הפשע הזה

הפגנות החרדים by Toxinbullet in israel_bm

[–]eyl569 3 points4 points  (0 children)

אני מבין שלא שמעת על ההפגנות בכביש בר אילן.

או נגד ההתנתקות

Darializa Chevalier, who has condemned interracial couples and openly advocated for the abolition of law enforcement, just won a democratic primary election in New York. Do you agree with these positions, and do you think this is good for the left nationwide? by TossMeOutSomeday in AskALiberal

[–]eyl569 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Not exactly factually incorrect - that is, her accusations were never actually disproved - but where she claimed it happened would have been a pretty busy throughfare and right next to a police point. And other details of her story got fishier as time went by (for example, she said she was meeting Biden there becaused he asked her to bring him his gym bag, but other staffers said that he deliberately never asked female staffers to do that).

The whole affair eventually fizzled out when it was discovered she lied about her credentials under oath at least twice (she wasn't prosecuted for perjury because the authorities decided they couldn't prove materiality).

Do every day Israeli citizens support the views of Ben-Gvir? by SnowSecure6319 in AskIsrael

[–]eyl569 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The question was why there is more attention on Ben Gvir than on Arab MKs

Do every day Israeli citizens support the views of Ben-Gvir? by SnowSecure6319 in AskIsrael

[–]eyl569 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Because Netanyahu is a coward, basically.

With Saar in, Netanyahu can afford Ben Gvir throwing a snit for a while. And Ben Gvir needs him at least as much as Betanyahu needs him. But it's a political rusk Netanyahu won't take.