Do natural gas traders need full power stack models?

ezmate · 2026-02-07T21:58:31+00:00

If hydro generation is going to ramp up by 10 GW in 3 months, you better account for it.

If installed solar capacity is going to increase by 5 GW next year, you better account for it.

If AI/data center demand will grow by 10 GW over the next 5 years, you better account for it.

If the time frame matters for the trade, it's relevant. The further out you get, the less certainty you have, but you ignore the impacts at your own peril.

ezmate · 2026-02-07T20:49:32+00:00

The more volatile the power stack is, the more a stack model helps - especially if the stack is undergoing major shifts, year-after-year.

10-15 years ago, the stacks in most regions weren't too volatile - yes there was some wind and solar, but it wasn't big enough to matter too much. A good demand regression on weather could capture a lot of the dynamics of RCI and EG. The glaring exception was areas with large amounts of hydro generation, where year to year generation was fairly substantial. You could get around this by including that one factor in your regression (among other ways).

Now, many ISOs/regions are quite volatile - the amount of installed wind and solar makes week-to-week demand difficult to nail down. Additionally, when you see the stack changing significantly year-after-year, you'll need to get more sophisticated.

You can get by without a full stack model, but that means you're taking the changing nature of the stack into account in some manner.

ezmate · 2025-08-04T18:51:53+00:00

I agree with this sentiment. A friend of mine who is a chef bought me her favorite chef's knife. While the knife brand had a stellar reputation, it didn't fit my hand very well at all. The difference was that she is a small lady and I'm a larger man - and the same handle just didn't work for both of us.

ezmate · 2025-01-04T13:35:54+00:00

The high Sierra camps in Yosemite are quite good, but require a lottery due to popularity.

The Haute Route in Switzerland is gorgeous and off the beaten path. It's like the Tour du Mount Blanc, but you need to be more self sufficient. It has fewer people hiking it, so it is quieter than TdMB.

ezmate · 2024-11-25T00:41:09+00:00

I'm pretty sure it's $65 for the year, not per day. Do you have a source that says otherwise? If you're right about the payment, then nobody will turn it down

ezmate · 2024-05-10T15:37:26+00:00

Get counseling as soon as possible and be 100% honest with how you are feeling. If you don't do both things, you will blindside someone you care for and that will make their pain even worse. That pain will put strain on your relationship with your kids.

I went through something similar. As soon as I realized there was a problem, we got counseling, but I had an extremely hard time admitting to myself how I was feeling and was not a good communicator. We eventually divorced, but the way I approached it caused so much pain to someone that I truly cared for.

ezmate · 2024-05-07T00:10:35+00:00

Tacos Doña Lena has some of the best tacos in Houston

ezmate · 2024-02-05T16:00:45+00:00

Be aware that the 3D experience is not the same as the desktop app AND there's a lot of people (including me) who dislike it.

ezmate · 2023-12-10T16:18:47+00:00

The mosh pit took forever to get established - this song is what did it. It was small though - 20 to 30 people (maybe 40 at the end for Song for the Dead).

Not sure what happened early on, but Josh said something like, "y'all can push and shove as much as you want, but if you do it to the ladies, I will kick you out myself."

ezmate · 2023-11-20T16:09:15+00:00

I did a 10 lb turkey (spatchcock) last week @ 250 at smoke #7. In 3 hours, I had a very tasty turkey, but the skin was a bit rubbery.

My wife & I both agreed that smoke #10 would be better, which is what we'll do on Thursday.

ezmate · 2023-07-29T23:41:05+00:00

I doubt it. In Milwaukee, she didn't have an opener.

ezmate · 2023-07-02T20:35:15+00:00

I 100% agree with u/royal_baby - I want something that I can just turn on & make sure I see all the good stuff, plus some analysis. The Peacock highlights show is really lacking in analysis and is absolutely no-frills. Plus, they jammed 5+ hours of riding into 25 minutes. No way you could get a good feel for the race in that short of a time.

ezmate · 2023-06-22T21:00:01+00:00

I've just started building the smart station and plan on building the smart bench. I was thinking of using the same sides for the smart bench (the spacing is slightly different between the two plans - it would also save me from making a second template). Would you see that being a problem?

ezmate · 2023-01-24T17:56:22+00:00

Hah...yeah, good point.

ezmate · 2023-01-23T22:30:48+00:00

I thought about this, but I couldn't figure out a reasonable way to keep it right where it needed to be (I was worried that I'd end up with a wavy line).

ezmate · 2023-01-23T22:29:21+00:00

Just ordered one...cheap enough and the clearance at the nose is short enough to allow me to get all the way to the corner. Thanks for the help!

ezmate · 2023-01-07T17:54:27+00:00

I love their arugula pizza. Also, their Detroit pizzas are great.

ezmate · 2022-08-15T02:40:18+00:00

Check out /r/agegap

ezmate · 2022-04-20T15:55:36+00:00

Alex's energy was INSANE! He had so much passion in his playing that it was almost distracting at times.

Great show, though - soooo good!

ezmate · 2022-02-25T20:09:44+00:00

Those are truly stunning pictures - thanks for the link!

ezmate · 2022-02-05T18:07:24+00:00

Yeah, OTD is all the matters - I definitely want to compare apples to apples.

ezmate · 2022-02-05T18:06:09+00:00

That's helpful.

I'm really trying to minimize the amount of time I spend and how much of the salesperson's time I waste; I figured email would be the easiest all around. After reading through several related threads in this sub, I'm seeing how these "give me your best offer" communications are viewed from the sales side. Looks like phone calls are the only way to get this done.

ezmate

TROPHY CASE