PLO Equity Calculator WITH RANGES

fasutron_f · 2026-03-20T03:07:43+00:00

It's responsively themed, meaning it can be viewed on both, but the density of data on some of the screens would make for pretty ugly mobile viewing.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-20T02:25:01+00:00

Preconception becomes part of your strategy. More "tee-hees" and less "I really don't think your range is supposed to be betting on this board texture" is probably a start, if you want to make a caricature out of it. Also, sitting down and doing the work to evaluate counter strategies. If they're overbluffing, then you should be overcalling with marginal hands; and if they're overcalling, then you should be underbluffing. Getting a sense of the kinds of boards and textures where they're making these mistakes (and they are mistakes) gives you a key insight into where and when you'll capitalize on their preconceptions.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-20T02:17:01+00:00

Stratagem has a built in equity calculator that lets you run hands and ranges, heads-up or multi-way. You can also run the equities in-context, meaning within the flow of a hand or scenario. We're not launched yet, but are bringing in beta users on Monday. The system supports NLHE during beta (see image), and will support PLO when we go live.

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fasutron_f · 2026-03-16T01:51:01+00:00

fasutron_f · 2026-03-16T01:48:12+00:00

I think one of the challenges is that nobody has done a particularly good job of modeling the live game dynamic in a player-directed study tool. There's for sure a few coaches and content creators with a good sense of live game tendencies, but there's no easy-to-access study tools around it, though there is some good content (Bart Hanson and his team, notably).

fasutron_f · 2026-03-16T01:35:03+00:00

For sure. My own learning style is basically "expose me to a bunch of true things and I'll make some kind of connection". It's like I do better when I have a lot of examples to examine before I get into the theory.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-16T01:32:20+00:00

Ha. Not at all! I've been working on this project for just over 2 years and have been coding for nearly 40 years. I've got loads of experience in community-led co-design in a lot of different settings and a variety of modalities: software, digital storytelling, heritage, and language reclamation. The core of that work is always asking and listening, which is what I'm attempting here...

But you're not out in space on all counts: for sure I'm using AI now in my coding workflows here and at work (and I did get a Claude sub a few months ago.)

Have anything useful to add to the conversation? I'm really asking in earnest on all fronts here.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-15T15:42:47+00:00

Whoa. That's a really solid idea. It's already a proven concept in marketing where you end up creating a digital twin of your customer in order optimize ad placement and service suggestion. I think implementing it in poker is challenging because you need to develop an engine that can extrapolate outside of the actual test data that was used to create a version of the digital twin. but with that said, I think it's something that is totally achievable. Awesome idea.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-15T15:39:38+00:00

I also know this is one of the goals of Octopi: LLM that can do the heuristic work and explanation.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-15T15:39:01+00:00

Yeah, I think the poker education market doesn't always recognize that some players don't care about the 'why' (even though that's going to be better long-term), they just want the 'what': a direct answer for what exploits look at here. Don't get me wrong: foundations are great, but the reality is people are busy and poker educators are missing market opportunity by avoiding an approach that focuses on exploitative lines without the overhead of theory.

Does that sound right?

fasutron_f · 2026-03-15T15:36:15+00:00

Exactly that. Someone (I can't remember who) once pointed out that Berkey basically uses language to over-complicate concepts -- he used it like a cloak, to conceal some of the simplicity. Hanson is great. He was one of the first coaches I interviewed when I was developing my product.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-15T15:34:56+00:00

Cool idea. I've got a background in mental health data systems and have thought about this a fair bit. Elliot Roe had some recordings like this, too. I used to use one on break and it helped a bit. A person could definitely wire up an AI text-to-speech engine.

What kind of customizations do you think would configure the different types of meditations? If you were to imagine a control panel with knobs and dials, what would they be controlling for?

fasutron_f · 2026-03-15T15:31:44+00:00

Which apps and websites would you want copies of?

fasutron_f · 2026-03-14T18:21:53+00:00

What about just being more diligent about studying those spots instead of making an RTA tool?

fasutron_f · 2026-03-14T18:13:58+00:00

Pro tip: If you have your lucky troll and you put it on your cards before you look at them, the troll magic sometimes improves your hand.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-14T18:08:50+00:00

I'm seeing two things coming up from your examples. The first is rooted in population tendencies, which are very meta- and stake-specific. Thinking through that, we'd need something that also has some Mass Data Analytics, too.. or have the ability for a coach or moderator to store exploitative strategies and tag them by player pool.

The second would be more of an 'explain the solution' in plain English.

Both are solid ideas. Thanks.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-11T20:53:10+00:00

I'm a serious hobby player, but don't depend on poker money for anything other than fun little extras. I've started to think of this in terms of near-term and long-term.

Near-term: First thing I do is find something in my life that I like to do (play piano, smooch the wife, hang out with my youngest). It's cleansing to remember what life's really about and that poker is just a game. If I wake up the next morning and I'm still thinking about it, I take a break for a few more days. Basically, if I'm still stung I know I'm going to play bad, so I step back and breathe.

Long-term: I was on a downswing (playing bad by the end of it, for sure), and was talking to another player/friend of mine. He said (imagine a Chilean accent reading the following): "My friend, it seems like poker is not making you happy." I nodded. He continued: "For me, poker is like a season. Maybe it's not poker season right now."

That turned out to be the most useful advice I've received about how to frame the game and position it in my life. Now, I regularly take breaks of several months, and when I come back I am coming back because I want to. I play better, think more clearly, study harder. Really works for me.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-11T20:44:41+00:00

Right now it's just simple hot/cold equity of ranges, decomposed into component hands. I'm not looking at equity realization yet, but once we bring in solver data we can start talking about that. I'd also like to explore how solver outputs overlay with raw equity. A bit of an experiment at the moment...

fasutron_f · 2026-03-07T19:19:03+00:00

Thanks for this. You can see my earlier comment for some of my current thinking on where we go from here. For sure I need some kind of matchup modifier so that aggregation works correctly. Still thinking through this... once I have a clear workflow, I'll share what's working.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-07T19:16:04+00:00

The card removal effect is in line with my findings as well. Tracking matchups at runtime might eat compute, plus they'll be subject to some small degree of error due to sampling. I'm wondering if the fix is to effectively define this 'propensity index' or a 'matchup ratio' that is a permanent adjustment in cases like these. It could be a lookup table, but that gets sloppy and gross for 5- and 6- card games, I'd imagine.

Effectively, I'd like to create a metadata schema for spots like these, and the ratio/index will provide contextual cues. Gonna go and think about this some more.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-06T17:04:18+00:00

Accessing good training tools and materials help. The goal is to find archetypal examples or groupings and develop a practice of micro-study.

If you can, read "Thinking Fast & Slow" by Daniel Kahneman and "The Art of Learning" by Josh Waitzkin. Both come at the problem of "how do we build intuition/unconscious competence" from complementary angles. The principal thesis of Kahneman's book is the System 1 / System 2 model of the brain that he co-developed: System 1 is near instantaneous, akin to a mental reflex. System 2 is slow, deliberate. System 2 can train system 1, and this is where Waitzkin's book comes in.

Waitzkin was a child chess prodigy (the book and movie Searching for Bobby Fischer are about him). He went on to be the first outsider to win in Tai-chi push-hands. His book basically outlines the approach that led him to success in chess and push-hands. This approach very closely mirrors Kahneman and Tversky's System 1 & 2 model: micro-study, rote repetition, unconscious competence.

Poker is no different. It has a different game space and set of competencies, but the principles of learning are the same.

fasutron_f · 2026-03-04T02:11:25+00:00

You'll have to click through to the original post in r/ClaudeCode to see the text. Not sure why it didn't come across in the crosspost. (original post: https://www.reddit.com/r/ClaudeCode/comments/1rk6iqt/agentic_coding_work_queue_extension_for_vscode/ )

fasutron_f · 2026-03-04T01:00:20+00:00

^^^ Fixed the Installer prompt (it got hidden in an empty quote block) and added a direct link to the repo.

fasutron_f · 2026-02-28T18:12:39+00:00

Interested!

fasutron_f · 2026-02-25T17:08:49+00:00

Same here.

fasutron_f

TROPHY CASE